GEMINI

Still Extreme Fear 👀

Net Realized PnL has dropped to a level not seen since March 2022. This indicates widespread loss realization across the market, reflecting strong selling pressure and investor fear. In previous cycles, similar phases have often occurred near periods of market reset, when risk is high but long term opportunities begin to form.

As price pushed higher, ATM implied volatility continued to be sold, indicating that the move was being used as an opportunity to offload risk. Gamma sellers stepped in to harvest premium rather than position for further upside. This divergence between rising price and softening volatility points to controlled, mechanical buying instead of aggressive breakout demand. Historically, this type of volatility response does not align with moves that develop into sustained breakouts.

The Realized Loss by Age metric shows that recent holders are driving the bulk of realized losses, led by the 3-6 month group and followed closely by those holding for 6-12 months. These participants largely represent buyers who entered near recent highs and are now being forced to sell as price moves back toward their cost basis, particularly above the $110K region.

This pattern highlights stress among late stage buyers, where downside pressure is outweighing conviction. Rather than treating the move as a chance to rebuild positions, these holders are prioritizing risk reduction. Their exits add overhead supply near important recovery levels, increasing resistance and making sustained upside extensions more difficult in the near term.

Still Extreme Fear 👀

#Bitcoin is showing early signs of bearish pressure after on chain profitability slipped into negative territory for the first time since 2023. This development indicates weakening investor confidence, as more coins are being held at a loss. Market analysts highlight the $80K-$84K zone as a crucial demand area for BTC. How price reacts around this level could define the next major move, either stabilizing the market or accelerating the downside.

Binance #Bitcoin Leverage Ratio has climbed to its highest point since November, highlighting a renewed appetite for high risk trading across the market. This rise in leverage places Bitcoin in a more fragile position, where even small price swings can trigger large liquidation cascades.

Both rallies and pullbacks carry higher risk under these conditions, as heavily leveraged positions are more likely to be forced out. With volatility increasing, traders should remain alert and prioritize disciplined risk control in the current market structure.

224,248.67 BTC was transferred in a single block, which is nearly $20B worth of #Bitcoin moved at once. Transactions of this size are extremely rare and clearly not retail driven. This kind of activity is usually linked to whale level players such as exchanges reorganizing cold wallets, institutional custody movements or large OTC settlements rather than immediate market selling.

The transfer itself is not the real signal, what matters is whether these funds stay idle or start moving toward exchanges, because that is where market sentiment can shift quickly. For now, it simply confirms that major players are active and positioning quietly.

Still Extreme Fear 👀

Vysoká volatilita na krypto trhu během posledních 24 hodin vedla k likvidaci 117,154 obchodníků, což zvýšilo celkové likvidace na 212,17 milionu dolarů. Největší jednotlivá likvidace byla pozice #BTCUSD na Hyperliquid v hodnotě 3,56 milionu dolarů ❗️

Na začátku roku 2023 byl kombinovaný tržní kapitál všech #altcoins větší než #bitcoin . Od té doby Bitcoin postupně vedl, čímž se mezera zvýšila na téměř 1,1 bilionu dolarů do července 2025. I dnes zůstává rozdíl silný na přibližně 606 miliard dolarů ve prospěch Bitcoinu.

Tato změna zdůrazňuje, kam kapitál směřoval. Místo rozložení rizika mezi více mincemi se investoři zaměřili na Bitcoin jako na hlavní držbu. V obdobích, kdy je důvěra selektivní, peníze obvykle směřují k aktivu s nejlepším historickým výkonem.

#Bitcoin has broken below the 0.75 supply cost basis level and continues to trade beneath it, showing weakness in market structure. With price now below the cost basis of around 75 percent of holders, selling pressure is likely to increase as confidence fades. This zone has historically acted as a key support and failure to reclaim it shifts the balance toward risk off conditions. Unless Bitcoin can recover this level soon, downside risk remains the primary scenario.

Recent on chain and derivatives data highlight rising pressure on #Bitcoin. Large holders have moved over $400 million worth of BTC onto spot exchanges, often a precursor to selling activity. Meanwhile, Binance derivatives are showing negative net taker volume, indicating that sell orders are outweighing buy orders.

Strong selling pressure defined the last red hourly candle, with sellers exceeding buyers by nearly $293 million. This shift reflects clear bearish control, buyers failed to absorb the selling flow during that period. Continued weakness is likely unless demand returns with strength.

Market stress is building as the supply of #Bitcoin held at a loss reaches 6.7 million BTC on a 7 day moving average, the highest point in this cycle. Since mid-November, this level has stayed within the 6 to 7 million #BTC zone, closely matching behavior seen during transition phases of earlier market cycles.

Prolonged periods with such a large amount of underwater supply tend to amplify frustration among holders. Historically, this environment has often preceded further downside, with capitulation emerging at lower prices once selling pressure intensifies and weaker participants exit the market.

Spot market activity still lacks the consistent, high conviction accumulation that typically drives strong trend expansion. However, the recent transition back to net buying across major exchanges is an encouraging structural signal. It points to a gradual rebuilding of demand and suggests that selling pressure is easing, which could support a more constructive market setup if this behavior holds.

The #Bitcoin Fear and Greed Index has moved from Fear to Extreme Fear 👀

#Bitcoin exchange inflows from whales have fallen sharply, nearly threefold compared to late November. This decline shows that large holders are no longer pushing strong selling pressure, choosing instead to hold during the ongoing consolidation. Such behavior typically supports price stability and can create favorable conditions for the next directional move once market confidence strengthens.

The November-December bottoming phase was marked by a clear divergence in behavior across cohorts. Larger entities were actively accumulating supply, while smaller holders continued to distribute.

This imbalance was partly driven by exchange related wallet reshuffling, but it also reflected intentional dip buying by large holders. As a result, supply was gradually absorbed by stronger hands, even as retail participation remained cautious, helping establish a more stable price base.

Derivatives markets remain defensive, with leverage staying light across futures. Open Interest continues to lag, and funding rates sit flat to mildly negative, highlighting hesitation among leveraged traders. Perpetual contracts show little appetite for aggressive longs, participants are waiting for clearer direction.

Positioning looks neutral overall, with no visible leverage imbalance that could fuel sharp liquidations. As a result, market direction is being shaped more by spot demand, liquidity conditions, and macro developments than by futures speculation. A sustained trend will likely require renewed participation from leveraged players or a strong external catalyst to break the current stalemate.