There is a lot of anxiety ahead of today's announcement of GDP figures. This is the first GDP report following the U.S. government shutdown, and numerous officials have already cautioned that the figures may have suffered as a result of the shutdown. Because markets have historically declined immediately following comparable GDP days, this announcement is dangerous. The initial reaction is frightening, but there's a catch: such drops were frequently followed by robust recoveries. President Trump is also keeping a close eye on this since a weak GDP may put more pressure on policymakers to lower interest rates. Emotions will be high, volatility is on the horizon, and the market's next significant move might begin today.
With reduction expectations rapidly declining, markets are currently pricing an 80.1% likelihood that the Fed will keep rates unchanged in January. The pivot narrative has faded swiftly, as seen by a 25bp decrease that stands at barely 19.9%. By March, the odds are divided: only 8.2% for a deeper shift, 47.1% for no change, and 44.7% for a single cut. Translation for risk assets: policy relief is no longer a base case, unpredictable, and delayed.
Renowned investor Warren Buffett warns that governments have a natural tendency to gradually depreciate their currency over time. He specifically targets the US dollar. As President Trump continues to push for strong growth, stimulus, and looser financial conditions, his comments are garnering significant attention, keeping the long-term currency value discussion at the forefront. Buffett warns that currency depreciation has long-lasting implications on markets, savings, and purchasing power that accumulate over time. Investors are paying close attention. Silent words. significant ramifications. A reminder that the decisions made about policy now have the power to influence the value of money for years to come.
Trump tvrdí, že zvažuje vyhlášení války s Venezuelou. Jak geopolitické napětí narůstá, trhy mohou reagovat větší volatilitou, zejména v USD, ropě a rizikovějších aktivech. Zůstaňte ostražití.
Rozhodnutí japonské centrální banky zvýšit krátkodobé úrokové sazby na nejvyšší úroveň za téměř 30 let v pátek přímo způsobilo nárůst prodeje státních dluhopisů a potvrdilo pokračující strategii centrální banky postupně opouštět uvolněné měnové politiky.
With $160 million in liquidations, Bitcoin creates an inverse cup-and-handle pattern. The Spook Bulls Due to recent market instability that resulted in around $160 million in liquidations, the price of bitcoin is displaying a probable inverted cup-and-handle pattern, a technical structure frequently associated with bearish continuation. The liquidations have increased traders' caution and put pressure on short-term sellers. Although forced exits and chart patterns might affect short-term price movement, market sentiment, liquidity conditions, and important support levels will still determine the long-term course. Traders are keeping an eye on how Bitcoin reacts in key technical zones and for confirmation of the pattern.
Podle Briana Armstronga se největší kryptoměnový zákon v americké historii chystá na schválení. Tato regulace není postupná. Celý průmysl prochází základní změnou. Trhy to dosud nezohlednily.
Byl zaveden nový fond od JPMorgan. Na blockchainu $ETH je fond tokenizován. Aktiva jsou transformována na digitální tokeny ve tokenizovaných fondech. Díky blockchainu mohou investoři nyní provádět přímé investice. To zlepšuje likviditu a transparentnost fondu. Spojuje DeFi a kryptoměnu s tradičním bankovnictvím. JPMorgan chce usnadnit investorům po celém světě.
The Bank of Japan has just implemented a 75 basis point reduction. $BTC has 72 hours to strategize. The Bank of Japan has officially announced its most significant monetary policy change in decades: a 75 basis point interest rate increase, effective in three days. This is not a simulation. Japan has served as the worldwide cornerstone for inexpensive capital (Yen Carry Trade). This abrupt, substantial contraction withdraws liquidity from global risk assets. The market effect will be instantaneous. Anticipate fluctuations. $BTC and other high-beta assets like as $PTB are immediately susceptible to this liquidity shock. Prepare for the ripple impact.
Current US Unemployment Rate: 4.6% | Anticipated: 4.4%
Despite exceeding forecasts, the job market is beginning to show symptoms of weakness. Risk assets may benefit from increased pressure on the Fed to take a more accommodative stance. #SOL #ETH #BEAT
The unemployment rate in the United States increased from 4.4% to 4.6%, exceeding forecasts and hitting its highest level since November 21. Even bad news can occasionally be good news. It slightly raises the likelihood of another rate reduction. More liquidity tends to boost bull cycles in assets like $BTC, which is good for scarce assets. Short-term? When worries about a recession reemerge, volatility and uncertainty could increase.
Japonská banka oznámila 19. prosince, že úrokové sazby vzrostou na 0,75 %, což je nejvyšší úroková sazba za více než 30 let. To je negativní pro rizikovější aktiva a finanční trhy jako celek a jasně naznačuje posun směrem k přísnějším měnovým podmínkám.
Even when the whole cryptocurrency market is collapsing, $ZEC is still doing well! Many people are curious as to why, but the explanation is simple. $ZEC is not a fad, but a necessity. People are unwilling to give up their right to privacy. Soon, a lot of people will realize how valuable ZCASH is. For the time being, those of us present can be thankful that we entered extremely early.
Japonský ETF v hodnotě 500 miliard dolarů se chystá vybuchnout! 💣
Japonsko prodává své obrovské ETF podíly v hodnotě 534 miliard dolarů. Zvažte stabilní vyhoření místo náhlého kolapsu. Mluvíme o výprodeji téměř 2,1 miliardy dolarů každý rok po dobu sto let. Klíčem je normalizace politiky.
▫️ On December 16, data on non-farm payrolls and unemployment will be made public. ▫️ CPI and Core CPI statistics will be made available on December 18. ▫️ December 19: BOJ interest rate decision, stock triple witching expiration. Data on unemployment and inflation will be revealed this week. The likelihood of a rate cut will increase when inflation slows down and the unemployment rate rises. The likelihood of a rate drop in January may be eliminated in any other situation. A rate hike has a 3/3 hit rate on a market crash, therefore the BOJ's interest rate decision will also be crucial.