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Polymarket odds on Bitcoin falling below $45K this year briefly rose to 52%.

Prediction markets remained split, with 76% still expecting Bitcoin to fall below $55K.

Analysts tracked $45K, $40K, and $30K levels as downside risk remained in focus.

Polymarket moved closer to a bearish majority after its market on whether Bitcoin falls below $45,000 this year reached 52% before easing to 51% at press time. The move still marked a 3% gain in downside conviction and highlighted a sharper risk focus across prediction markets.

BREAKING: Bitcoin is now likely to crash below $45,000 this year.

52% chance. https://t.co/YTvlpcPIjX

— Polymarket (@Polymarket) March 30, 2026

YES shares traded at 51 cents, while NO shares changed hands at 50 cents. That pricing showed a narrowly split market, yet one leaning toward further weakness. Earlier sessions had kept sentiment between 44% and 49%, making the latest shift notable in the platform’s recent range.

Source: Polymarket

The market backdrop added weight to that change in positioning. Bitcoin traded at $66,296 at press time after peaking at $75,000 in mid-March. Besides, the asset was down 6.7% on the weekly chart and had slipped from levels above $72,000 in the previous session.

Market capitalization fell 1.69% to about $1.32 trillion. Trading volume, however, rose 21.32% to $38.07 billion, showing elevated activity as the price weakened.

Prediction Markets Show Split but Cautious Positioning

Polymarket’s broader contract board showed mixed expectations rather than a one-way collapse call. The platform showed a 61% chance of Bitcoin surpassing $80,000, down 15% from the previous figure.

Source: Polymarket

At the same time, nearly 76% of bettors expected the asset to fall below $55,000. Those numbers placed traders between hopes of an upside recovery and near-term downside caution. Kalshi, on the other hand, presented a different ceiling-focused reading. Its market assigned a 34% chance that Bitcoin would return to the $100,000 level.

Source: Kalshi

That figure contrasted with the heavier downside positioning seen in the lower-price contracts. Together, the data showed divided sentiment across platforms, with traders weighing both the potential for a rebound and the risk of deeper drawdowns.

Price Held Steady Despite Musk’s Bitcoin Post

The shifting sentiment also unfolded during another high-profile social media moment. Just yesterday, Elon Musk posted a five-minute clip showing an anime girl dancing with a Bitcoin logo behind her. Musk is widely known for posting about Dogecoin, which has often reacted strongly to his commentary. This time, the market response was muted.

pic.twitter.com/wHcxx0JBFl

— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) March 30, 2026

Bitcoin traded near $67,000 before and after the post. The absence of a sharp move stood out because Musk-linked posts have previously fueled sudden crypto reactions. In this case, price action stayed largely unchanged, even as broader debate over direction intensified across social platforms and prediction markets.

Related: Beeline’s Q4 Revenue Leaps 127% Amid Rising Crypto Mortgage Use

Analysts Point to Historical Signals and Fractal Risk

Crypto analyst Ali Martinez highlighted a recurring signal involving the 50-day and 200-day simple moving averages on the 3-day chart. According to his review, that crossover has appeared near the final phase of bear markets since 2014. In 2014, Bitcoin had already fallen 72% before the crossover formed in December.

https://t.co/QH5wLUdzW3

— Ali Charts (@alicharts) March 30, 2026

It then dropped another 52% over the next 23 days, marking the cycle bottom. Martinez said the pattern repeated in 2018 after a 67% drawdown. The crossover appeared in November, and the price later fell another 50% over the next 33 days.

In 2022, a 50% decline came before the crossover in May, followed by a further 45% drop within 33 days. A second low then formed 156 days later. In the current cycle, Martinez said Bitcoin had already corrected 52% from the October 2025 peak, while the crossover appeared on February 27, 2026.

Source: X

Roughly 30 days had passed since that signal emerged. Based on prior post-crossover declines of 40% to 50%, he identified accumulation zones near $40,000 and a deeper washout level at $30,000.

Source: X

Another analyst, Ted, tied the recent structure to a January 2026 fractal. He said BTC had lost its uptrend and now resembled that earlier setup. Ted noted that the prior move ended with a nearly 39% drop from the local peak. Applying a similar move, he placed the downside target at $45,000.

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Beeline Q4 revenue rose 127% as origination volume climbed 44% while loan economics improved.

Beeline launched blockchain-recorded equity deals as it expanded into tokenized home finance.

The company ended 2025 debt-free with over $50M in equity and a $100M revenue target in view.

Beeline Holdings reported record fourth-quarter growth on Monday, citing stronger lending activity and improved efficiency at the Nasdaq-listed crypto mortgage lender. According to reports, the company posted $2.5 million in net revenue for Q4 2025, up 127% from a year earlier and 8.3% from the prior quarter.

The quarter also showed heavier origination volume and broader use of blockchain tools in Beeline’s real estate finance strategy. Origination volume reached $84.7 million, up 44% year over year, while Beeline launched BeelineEquity and closed its first blockchain-recorded transactions before year-end.

Revenue Growth Outran Cost Pressures

Beeline’s Q4 Revenue rose during a quarter marked by higher operating expenses, which management largely attributed to non-cash stock-based compensation. Operating expenses increased primarily due to $4.2 million in non-cash stock-based compensation during the period.

Excluding that item, operating expenses increased 19% while revenue climbed 127%, according to the company’s release. Management added that non-cash stock-based compensation represented a significant share of its $27.3 million in annual operating expenses.

The company also reported better loan economics through late 2025 and into January 2026. Average revenue per loan increased 31%, while average cost per loan decreased 18%, extending an efficiency trend that management said would continue into early 2026.

Balance Sheet Strengthened During a Public Market Transition

Beeline said 2025 brought structural changes, including its public listing, debt elimination, and expansion of its technology stack. The company ended 2025 with more than $50 million in total equity and no corporate debt.

Nick Liuzza, Beeline’s co-founder and chief executive, said the company used 2025 to build its platform and improve loan-level economics. He said that work left the business positioned for faster growth while maintaining operational discipline.

Even with those gains, Beeline posted a full-year 2025 net loss of $31.5 million. In the fourth quarter, it reported a net income of negative $8.35 million and operating expenses of $10.55 million.

Analyst coverage remained limited, with one available rating on the shares, listed as a strong buy. Wall Street’s median 12-month price target stood at $4.50, about 109.3% above Beeline’s March 27 closing price of $2.15. At press time, shares were trading at $2.11 on Nasdaq.

Related: Labor Rule May Open 401(k)s to Bitcoin and Alternatives

Blockchain Expansion Opened a New Fee-Based Channel

Beeline’s Q4 Revenue also coincided with a wider move into blockchain-based real estate finance. During the quarter, the company launched BeelineEquity, which it described as a fee-based product tied to home equity.

Management said the new offering targets the $4 trillion home equity market in the United States. The platform aims to tokenize deed-recorded fractional residential equity through a blockchain-enabled structure built with TYTL.

Earlier in March, Beeline announced a joint effort with TYTL Corp. to tokenize deed-recorded fractional equity interests in United States homes using TYTL’s Solana-based infrastructure. The companies said they had completed 11 initial fractional-equity transactions and launched an initial portfolio.

Beeline estimated that every $1 billion in aggregate transaction value could generate roughly $41 million in cumulative revenue potential. That estimate covered facilitation, title, and closing fees connected to the platform’s transaction flow.

Management reiterated its target of reaching a $100 million annual revenue run rate within the next 24 months. The update left Beeline’s Q4 Revenue at the center of a quarter defined by higher scale, better loan margins, and new blockchain-linked activity.

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U.S. prosecutors linked Jonathan Spalletta to two Uranium Finance exploits in 2021.

The April 28 attack drained $53.3 million across 26 pools and shut the platform.

Federal agents seized $31 million as crypto exploits kept pressuring the sector.

U.S. authorities unsealed an indictment against Jonathan Spalletta, a Maryland resident accused of hacking Uranium Finance twice in April 2021 and draining more than $54 million. The U.S. Attorney’s Office for the Southern District of New York said he surrendered on Monday. Prosecutors charged him with computer fraud and money laundering, and they said he faces up to 30 years in prison.

Prosecutors Detail Two 2021 Exploits

The case centers on Uranium Finance, a BNB Chain fork of Uniswap that launched in April 2021 during the bull market. According to prosecutors, the platform lost funds in two separate attacks within weeks. First, on April 8, 2021, a bad actor exploited a smart contract flaw and withdrew far more rewards than allowed. The U.S. Attorney’s Office said that attack cost the platform about $1.4 million.

“Stealing from a crypto exchange is stealing – the claim that ‘crypto is different’ does not chang that,’” said U.S. Attorney Jay Clayton. “For the victims, there is nothing different about having your money taken.”https://t.co/jSaPJ0F5LR pic.twitter.com/TbQ1mLfOYp

— US Attorney SDNY (@SDNYnews) March 30, 2026

Later, Uranium Finance struck a private deal with the attacker. That agreement returned most of the funds, yet it let him keep about $386,000 as a fake bug bounty, according to prosecutors.

Then, on April 28, prosecutors said Spalletta exploited another smart contract error that governed withdrawal limits from liquidity pools. That second attack hit 26 separate pools and netted about $53.3 million in cryptocurrencies. As a result, Uranium Finance shut down after the catastrophic loss. Its website later went dark, and victims have had few answers since the exchange ceased operations.

Indictment Outlines Laundering Claims and Asset Seizure

According to the indictment, Spalletta moved the stolen funds through a complex chain of cryptocurrency transactions. Prosecutors said he also used Tornado Cash to obscure the money trail. Federal agents later seized about $31 million in cryptocurrency tied to the hack in February 2025. Authorities released no public details at that time, according to the text.

After that seizure, the criminal case moved forward. Spalletta, 36, of Rockville, Maryland, now faces one count of computer fraud and one count of money laundering. The press release said the computer fraud charge carries a maximum sentence of 10 years. It also said the money laundering charge carries a maximum sentence of 20 years.

He was due to appear before U.S. Magistrate Ona Wang on Monday to hear the charges. The Complex Frauds and Cybercrime Unit is prosecuting the case.

Read More: Hackers Frame “Bug Bounty” Prompts to Access Mexican Government Data

Officials Link The Case to Wider Crypto Crime Risks

U.S. Attorney Jay Clayton said Spalletta “exploited smart contracts to steal millions” from Uranium Finance and caused the exchange to shut down because it lacked funds. He added, “Stealing from a crypto exchange is stealing.” Clayton also said, “For the victims, there is nothing different about having your money taken.” He added that Spalletta caused “real victims real losses of tens of millions of dollars.”

How did prosecutors say one alleged attacker turn two smart contract flaws into one of 2021’s major DeFi losses? They said he paired the exploits with laundering tools and then spent part of the proceeds on rare collectibles and antique coins.

The charges arrived as crypto crime remained a persistent threat. PeckShield said crypto-related theft topped $4 billion in 2025, marking a 34% annual increase, while smart contract flaws accounted for a meaningful share.

The text also placed the Uranium Finance case within the broader 2021 wave of exploits. It said bad actors stole more than $2.6 billion through hacks and exploits that year, including the $610 million Poly Network attack.

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Google said Bitcoin may need fewer qubits to crack than prior industry estimates.

Taproot may widen wallet exposure by making public keys visible on-chain by default.

Real-time attacks could exploit Bitcoin’s confirmation window in about nine minutes.

Google’s Quantum AI team said Monday that breaking Bitcoin’s blockchain with quantum computers may require far less computing power than many recent estimates suggested. In a blog post and whitepaper, the team said fewer than 500,000 physical qubits could threaten Bitcoin and Ethereum cryptography. It also said Bitcoin’s Taproot upgrade may widen exposure because it reveals public keys by default.

Lower Qubit Estimates Reshape the Threat Timeline

Google’s researchers said recent discussions often placed the requirement in the millions of qubits. By contrast, the new paper said an attack may need fewer than 500,000 physical qubits. As a result, the gap between today’s systems and a practical attack appears smaller.

The team also described two possible attack methods. Each model would need about 1,200 to 1,450 high-quality qubits. That figure sits well below older estimates and may change how investors view the timeline.

Google has already pointed to 2029 as a possible milestone for useful quantum systems. Because of that timeline, the lower resource estimate adds weight to calls for earlier migration. In turn, the findings raise fresh questions about how soon quantum risk could move from theory to planning.

Real-time Attacks Could Target Live Transactions

The paper said a quantum attacker may not need to target dormant or older wallets. Instead, the attacker could watch for a live Bitcoin transaction and act when the public key appears. At that moment, a powerful quantum system could try to derive the private key.

BREAKING: GOOGLE WARNS 6.9M BITCOIN WILL BE VULNERABLE WHEN QUANTUM COMPUTERS BECOME POWERFUL ENOUGH

A new Google Quantum AI whitepaper has identified approximately 6.9 million Bitcoin $BTC vulnerable to future quantum at-rest attacks.

Around 1.7 million BTC sits in old… pic.twitter.com/pCwKrhXL4e

— BSCN (@BSCNews) March 31, 2026

Google said its model lets the attacker complete some work before a target transaction appears. Then, once the public key becomes visible, the system could finish the attack in about nine minutes. Bitcoin transactions usually take around 10 minutes to confirm.

That timing gives the attacker about a 41% chance of redirecting funds before the original transfer settles. What happens if that attack window becomes practical before the industry completes a migration? The paper said Ethereum and some other networks may face less risk from this exact method because they confirm transactions faster.

Exposed Keys and Taproot Add to The Risk

Google’s researchers estimated that about 6.9 million bitcoins already sit in wallets with exposed public keys. That total equals roughly one-third of the total supply. It includes about 1.7 million bitcoin from Bitcoin’s early years and more funds linked to address reuse.

That estimate stands far above a recent figure from CoinShares. CoinShares argued that only about 10,200 bitcoins sit in concentrations large enough to move markets if stolen. The difference shows how firms measure quantum exposure in very different ways.

Related: BTQ Technologies Deploys BIP 360 Testnet to Shield Bitcoin From Quantum Threats

The findings also turned attention toward Taproot, Bitcoin’s 2021 upgrade. Taproot improved efficiency and privacy, yet it also made public keys visible on-chain by default. Google’s team said that the design choice may expand the number of wallets exposed to future quantum attacks.

Google also said it is changing how it discloses sensitive security research. Rather than publish a full attack playbook, the team used a zero-knowledge proof to show that its results hold up without exposing the method. At the same time, governments and industry groups are pushing quantum-safe encryption, while CoinDCX has launched a ₹100 crore fund for customer education, cybercrime support, and digital threat research.

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Labor’s proposal gives 401(k) fiduciaries a defined path for carefully reviewing crypto.

The rule weighs fees, liquidity, valuation, benchmarks, and asset complexity first.

Advisors say most savers may still prefer low-cost broad market index funds today.

The US Labor Department has proposed a rule that could open 401(k) plans to alternative investments, including crypto assets such as Bitcoin. The Employee Benefits Security Administration described the measure as historic. It said the rule gives fiduciaries a clear process for reviewing non-traditional assets. The proposal sets safe-harbor procedures for plan managers. 

Those steps cover performance, fees, liquidity, valuation, benchmarks, and asset complexity. If finalized, the rule would give fiduciaries a structured path to consider crypto without the compliance risks that discouraged adoption in recent years. Could crypto soon move from the market fringe into mainstream retirement menus?

Labor Department Moves to Expand Private Investments in 401(k) Plans

The Department of Labor has proposed a new rule broadening access to private equity and other alternative assets in 401(k) retirement plans, delivering on President Trump’s executive order to open new… pic.twitter.com/Is03nvdA8Y

— Washington Eye (@washington_EY) March 30, 2026

How the Proposal Would Work

At the center of the proposal are safe-harbor rules for designated investment alternatives in defined contribution plans. Under those rules, fiduciaries would need to review each option through a documented process. The department said the framework remains neutral on asset classes.

Instead of backing one type of investment, the rule sets out how plan managers should assess choices. They would weigh expected performance and costs first. They would also examine liquidity, valuation methods, suitable benchmarks, and the complexity of crypto assets.

In turn, the Labor Department said the proposal aims to reduce uncertainty for fiduciaries. The EBSA said the Biden administration’s 2022 compliance guidance discouraged crypto offerings in retirement plans. It added that the earlier guidance diverged from ERISA requirements and limited the use of alternatives.

According to a recent CNBC report, the proposal follows an executive order from President Donald Trump issued in August. That order directed the Labor Department and the Securities and Exchange Commission to support wider access to alternative assets in 401(k)s.

Labor Secretary Lori Chavez-DeRemer said, “This proposed rule will show how plans can consider products that better reflect the investment landscape as it exists today.” Her statement framed the rule as a way to align retirement plans with current markets.

Officials from other agencies also backed the move. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent called the rulemaking “another step in ushering in President Trump’s Golden Age.” He said the proposal seeks to broaden retirement choices for “millions of Americans” while protecting retirement assets.

Support, Warnings, and Broader Policy Moves

The SEC also took part in developing the proposal, according to the text. SEC Chairman Paul Atkins said retirement planning should let Americans take part in innovation and economic growth through diversified, long-term investments. He said the SEC helped formulate the rule.

Supporters argue that alternative investments could give retirement savers broader diversification away from public markets. They also say those assets may offer higher returns. At the same time, some financial advisors say many 401(k) investors lack the experience needed for more complex products.

Those advisors also point to higher risk and higher costs. Josh Brown, chief executive of Ritholtz Wealth Management, told CNBC in October that most 401(k) investors would likely fare better without alternative assets. He said a broad stock market index fund often beats professional investors and keeps expenses low.

Related: Bitcoin Volatility Triggers $200M Liquidations in 75 Minutes

Brown said, “The average investor by definition does not need alternative assets in their portfolio.” He also said there is “absolutely no chance” that 401(k) investors would gain access to the best alternative managers or the best funds.

Even in that case, Brown said, investors would still face steep costs. He said they would “pay through the nose for it” because they lack the buying power to negotiate lower fees. He added, “You are not the sovereign wealth fund of Norway. You will not be treated that way.”

Even so, the proposal fits a wider policy direction. The text said the Trump administration has taken other steps to ease broader retail access to nontraditional asset classes. In that setting, the Labor Department’s plan marks a new stage in the debate over crypto in retirement accounts.

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Bitcoin erased nearly $200M in 75 minutes as bulls and bears were liquidated in succession.

A $1,700 drop wiped out longs before a $1,400 rebound liquidated short positions fast.

RSI at 43.99 signaled fading momentum as options expiry and thin liquidity amplified swings.

Bitcoin endured a violent 75-minute swing that erased nearly $200 million in leveraged positions, as rapid price moves punished traders on both sides. Market commentator Bull Theory reported that the asset fell from $66,710 to $65,000 in 60 minutes, wiping out more than $185 million in long positions.

The analyst then said price reversed sharply and climbed from $65,000 to $66,400 in 15 minutes, liquidating nearly $14 million in shorts. Combined, the move brought total liquidations to roughly $199 million across the full window.

BREAKING: Bitcoin dumped -$1,700 from $66,710 to $65,000 and liquidated over $185 million worth of longs in 60 MINUTES.

But then it pumped +$1,400 from $65,000 to $66,400 in 15 MINUTES and liquidated nearly $14 million worth of shorts.

All this happened in the last 75 minutes.… pic.twitter.com/z0AXslLHdK

— Bull Theory (@BullTheoryio) March 29, 2026

The sequence illustrated how quickly thin weekend liquidity can distort price action when leverage is crowded. Bull Theory described the event as another low-liquidity weekend flush that removed both bullish and bearish traders in quick succession.

Based on the levels cited, the first leg lower amounted to a drop of about 2.5%, while the rebound delivered a gain of roughly 2.2%. Even after the recovery, the asset remained below its starting point, showing that the rebound did not fully erase the earlier damage.

Derivatives’ Pressure Added to the Shock

The volatility came during a period of broader derivatives stress. Deribit settled about $14.16 billion in options on March 27, a figure analysts described as the largest options expiry of 2026. The expiry was also said to equal roughly 40% of open positions on the exchange.

TradingView News reported that the market sat around $4,700 below a $75,000 max-pain level before expiry. That gap mattered, as large expiries can intensify hedging flows and exaggerate short-term swings.

In the same period, the asset was said to have fallen as low as $655,420, representing a 5.18% session decline. The reported figure appeared alongside the broader options-driven volatility narrative.

Separately, macro pressure remained visible as Middle East tensions, firmer Treasury yields, and a stronger U.S. dollar weighed on risk assets. More than $1.33 billion in crypto positions were liquidated over the week, while the price traded near $66,510 on Friday.

Related: Crypto Is the Future of AI-Native Payments, Says Sam Bankman-Fried

Chart Data Showed Weakening Momentum

The TradingView chart shared with the move placed the current action inside a long-term ascending channel. The chart highlighted earlier cycle advances toward $19,000, $68,000, and $126,000, followed by deep corrective phases.

Those pullbacks included declines of 84% to around $3K and 77% to roughly $15K. The latest retracement has pulled BTC’s price back into the $60K to $70K zone. The current correction area on the chart suggested that support could extend toward the $40K region if the long-term trendline is tested. Momentum readings also weakened.

Source: TradingView

The RSI 14 stood near 43.99, while its moving average was around 60.60. With RSI below the neutral 50 mark, the indicator signaled fading bullish momentum and rising bearish pressure. The chart data showed that such readings have previously aligned with extended consolidation or deeper downside before a fresh accumulation phase.

Overall, the liquidation wave showed how fragile Bitcoin’s short-term setup had become as leverage, weak RSI, and options pressure collided. Although BTC rebounded sharply after the drop, it still closed below its starting level, signaling that bullish momentum remained weak. Traders are now watching whether Bitcoin can hold the mid-$60,000 zone or face deeper downside toward lower channel support.

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Sam Bankman-Fried linked crypto payments to the fast rise of autonomous AI agents.

Trump called Bitcoin “very powerful” and backed a U.S. crypto leadership push in Miami.

Visa, Stripe, Coinbase, and Mastercard are building tools for agent-led digital payments.

Jailed cryptocurrency fraudster Sam Bankman-Fried tied digital asset payments to automated commerce after President Donald Trump gave cryptocurrency a central role at a Miami investment summit. In a post on X, he said payments are no longer driven solely by people, as software agents increasingly need to transact as well.

It's not just people who want to pay you in crypto, increasingly it's AI agents.

Crypto is the future of AI-native payments.

And @realDonaldTrump is the first president to see the national statregic potential of both crypto and AI. https://t.co/ROArUnx1Lf

— SBF (@SBF_FTX) March 29, 2026

The remark turned a political speech into a wider debate about how automated systems could move money on the internet. The exchange followed Trump’s appearance at the Future Investment Initiative Priority Summit, held from March 25 to March 27 at the Faena Hotel in Miami Beach.

During that speech, Trump called Bitcoin “very powerful” and said more people now prefer to pay with cryptocurrency. He also said the United States would become the world’s Bitcoin superpower and the undisputed crypto capital.

“Bitcoin is very powerful… So many people now want to pay you in crypto,” Trump remarked.

A Payment Argument, Not Just a Market Slogan

Bankman-Fried’s post stood out because it shifted attention from trading toward infrastructure. He argued that crypto fits a world where software agents handle payments, settle tasks, and manage funds without waiting for human approval.

That framing presented blockchain rails as tools for machine commerce rather than only as speculative assets. He also described Trump as the first president to recognize the strategic potential of digital assets and artificial intelligence.

“Crypto is the future of AI-native payments. And @realDonaldTrump is the first president to see the national statregic potential of both crypto and AI,” Bankman-Fried acknowledged. 

That claim landed days after World Liberty Financial launched payment infrastructure for blockchain-based agents. The system is designed to let those agents manage funds and transact on-chain.

Trump’s Miami Speech Set the Sequence

Trump’s remarks mattered as they placed digital payments inside a broader economic message. Speaking to investors, executives, and policymakers, he linked cryptocurrency to national competitiveness, technology, and capital flows. The timing also underscored how sharply his public posture has shifted since 2021.

Bankman-Fried then extended that message into a practical payment use case. Instead of focusing on consumers alone, he pointed to agents that could buy services, complete tasks, and move value across networks. That distinction helped explain why autonomous payments are gaining serious attention.

Related: Trump Pledges to Crown U.S. the World’s Bitcoin Superpower and Crypto Hub

Major Firms Are Already Building the Same Model

Industry examples reinforced that point with product announcements and strategy documents. Visa said in its 2026 payments outlook that agentic commerce is moving into the mainstream. It described a near-term model in which software systems transact on behalf of consumers and businesses.

Similarly, Stripe has already moved deeper into that model. It said machine payments now let developers charge agents directly for API calls and other usage through stablecoin micropayments. The company also partnered with OpenAI on shopping experiences within ChatGPT, integrating commerce tools into artificial intelligence interfaces.

Coinbase made a parallel case through its Agentic Wallets product. The company said the wallets enable non-custodial, autonomous payments for compute, data, storage, and related services via the x402 standard. Mastercard also said tokenized currencies and autonomous agents are reshaping commerce and then launched a crypto partner program tied to established payment rails.

Taken together, those developments explain why Bankman-Fried’s claim reached beyond social media. His post matched a pattern already visible across politics, fintech, and blockchain infrastructure. In that pattern, crypto was presented not as a theory but as a working payment layer for machine-led transactions.

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The BTC hash rate rose as the price stayed below its peak, widening the network value gap.

CoinShares found that older mining rigs struggled as costs rose and margins shrank.

Network strength held firm even as miners sold reserves and financial pressure built.

Bitcoin’s mean hash rate kept rising even as the asset traded below its recent peak, according to a Glassnode chart shared on X by analyst Michael van de Poppe. The chart showed network strength climbing past 1.1 zettahashes per second in 2025 and nearing 1.3Z before a modest pullback into 2026. At the same time, CoinShares reported that many miners faced tighter margins, rising production costs, and negative cash flow in late 2025.

Hash Rate Rises While Price Pulls Back

The Glassnode chart tracked two long-term trends. The orange line showed Bitcoin’s mean hash rate rising from near zero in the early 2010s to above 1.1Z by 2025. It later approached 1.3Z before easing slightly. Meanwhile, the black price line moved from below $1 in Bitcoin’s early years to above $100,000 near the latest cycle top. After that, the price slipped, yet the network’s computing power kept climbing.

Source: X

Van de Poppe used that divergence to challenge claims about AI disrupting Bitcoin mining. In his X post, he wrote, “‘AI will kill #Bitcoin, because data centers will stop mining Bitcoin’. Absolutely bullshit.”

He said the narrative gained traction because it matched fear during weaker market periods. He also said Bitcoin was down “a mere 20% from the peak” and noted that previous bear markets also showed downward ticks. He added that hash rate had risen lately while price kept falling. Can Bitcoin mining be fading when the network keeps adding computational power at a historic pace?

Research Details: Pressure on Mining Economics

While the network expanded, CoinShares described growing financial pressure across the mining sector. The firm said miners using mid-generation hardware below the S19 XP faced negative cash flow unless power costs stayed below $0.05 per kilowatt-hour.

That cost structure left roughly one-sixth to one-fifth of global mining capacity below breakeven. As a result, older and less efficient operators faced the strongest squeeze.

CoinShares also said the weighted average cost of production for publicly listed miners reached $79,995 per Bitcoin in the fourth quarter of 2025. The report linked that increase to higher electricity costs, stronger network difficulty, and added depreciation from AI and HPC infrastructure.

At the same time, hash prices stayed compressed. CoinShares recorded three straight negative difficulty adjustments in late 2025, a pattern it said had not appeared since July 2022 and pointed to miner capitulation.

Legacy S19-series machines faced added strain during winter. CoinShares said higher seasonal energy costs and ERCOT grid curtailments increased uneconomic mining hours and pushed more operators toward AI and HPC workloads. Even so, CoinShares said the network hash rate remained resilient. It peaked near 1,160 EH/s in October 2025, then fell about 10% by December and early 2026 as uneconomic operations stopped and inspections hit Xinjiang, China.

Related: Bitcoin Hashrate Drops as Miner Stress Builds: VanEck Data

By early March 2026, CoinShares said the network had stabilized near 1,020 EH/s. The firm said miners with cheap power, state backing, or next-generation ASICs still operated profitably, while publicly listed miners sold more Bitcoin from treasury holdings.

The report named Core Scientific, Bitdeer, and Riot among firms that liquidated notable treasury amounts. In turn, Van de Poppe argued that the disconnect between price and hash rate “provides an opportunity” because Bitcoin looked undervalued against what he called fair price.

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Barclays said Trump remarks now fail to calm equities as headline fatigue builds.

Oil stayed firm while stocks slipped after Trump pointed to fresh Iran deal progress.

Reuters said yields, inflation, and slower growth kept stagflation fears in focus.

In a twisting turn of events, Barclays says the so-called Trump put is fading as investors stop responding to President Donald Trump’s market-moving comments with the same confidence. The bank said traders had treated Trump’s remarks on Iran and policy as an informal backstop for risk assets. Yet stocks fell and oil rose even after Trump said Iran was “begging” to make a deal. That shift, Barclays said, shows headline fatigue is weakening the market support that once followed presidential rhetoric.

Headline Fatigue Starts to Weigh on Markets

Barclays said Trump’s de-escalation talk had helped keep equities afloat during the war. At the same time, the bank warned that repeated reversals were eroding that effect. In a Friday note, analysts wrote, “Trump’s de-escalation talk has kept equities afloat. But constant flip-flopping and headline fatigue is starting to undermine the put efficacy.”

Barclays says the "Trump put" is losing its power to boost markets and calm jittery investors. https://t.co/gnUNNUJdpQ

— Business Insider (@BusinessInsider) March 27, 2026

Trump told reporters at the White House on Thursday that Iran was “begging” to make a deal. Still, markets did not follow the earlier pattern. Stocks moved lower during Friday’s session, while oil prices pushed higher and extended Thursday’s moves.

The Nasdaq 100 then slipped into correction territory, down more than 10% from its peak, as technology shares continued to sell off. Barclays said the risk had become more serious because the same messages no longer produced the same market response. The bank added, “The risk is that constant flip-flopping and headline fatigue is starting to undermine the efficacy of the ‘Trump put seriously’.”

A Tougher Backdrop Limits the President’s Market Sway

Barclays said equities rose and oil fell on Trump’s comments Monday, but those moves faded when his remarks did not materialize. The bank said the same pattern returned on Wednesday. As a result, investors appeared less willing to chase short rebounds tied only to headlines.

Reuters reported on March 24 that Wall Street had swung between hopes for diplomacy and fears that the conflict could drag on. At the same time, higher Treasury yields and stronger oil prices added pressure. The Dow fell 0.18%, the S&P 500 lost 0.37%, and the Nasdaq dropped 0.84% as traders weighed geopolitical risks against inflation concerns.

Reuters also said investors faced a stagflation-style setup marked by higher energy costs, slower activity, and a more hawkish Federal Reserve. Traders were no longer pricing in rate cuts this year. Can presidential rhetoric still lift stocks when oil, yields, and inflation all move against risk assets?

Related: Major U.S. Banks Expand Bitcoin Trading and Custody Market

Markets Still Show Resilience Despite the Strain

Barclays said the broader market had not fully broken down despite the chaotic news cycle and mixed signals from officials. The bank wrote that “this week’s resilient price action suggests the ‘market wants to go up.’” Even so, it tied that resilience to a fragile balance rather than renewed faith in headlines.

According to Barclays, the S&P 500 was down only 2.3% for the week, while oil prices were also lower across the same period. Those figures suggested that investors had not fully abandoned equities. Still, the bank’s note showed that traders were becoming more selective about what could drive a rebound.

Reuters added that U.S. business activity had slowed to an 11-month low in March. It also said the energy shock had revived inflation fears and complicated the outlook for central banks. Barclays said those pressures help explain why the Trump put is losing force as markets focus more on prices, yields, earnings expectations, and the risk of a deeper stagflationary shock.

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An X analyst identified Bitcoin’s halving cycle as a stable eigenmode in log space.

SSA and DMD isolated a 4.19-year cycle around Bitcoin’s long-term power law path.

Crypto research linked Bitcoin’s 2026 decline to tighter liquidity and wider macro strain.

Bitcoin’s four-year halving cycle returned to focus after X analyst @Giovann35084111 said advanced signal analysis found it as a core pattern in Bitcoin’s price behavior. At the same time, reports indicate that Bitcoin fell from its $127,000 peak in October 2025 to a $60,000 floor in under five months as liquidity tightened and risk appetite faded. Together, those views frame the current downturn as both a mathematical cycle and a macro-driven selloff.

Analyst Says Eigenvalue Decomposition Exposed a Core Cycle

On X, @Giovann35084111 described Bitcoin price as a complex signal made of several underlying patterns. The analyst said eigenvectors act like “fundamental notes” inside that signal and rank those patterns by importance. The analyst said the work used Singular Spectrum Analysis in log space rather than linear space. That choice mattered because Bitcoin moved from about $0.05 to $125,000 across six orders of magnitude.

THREAD: We just proved Bitcoin's 4-year halving cycle is a fundamental eigenmode of the system

Using eigenvalue decomposition (SSA + DMD), we discovered something remarkable about Bitcoin's price dynamics. Let me explain what we did and why it matters…

1/ What are… pic.twitter.com/5gPpgd3h40

— Giovanni's BTC_POWER_LAW (@Giovann35084111) March 30, 2026

From there, the analyst said the price history was turned into a trajectory matrix and then decomposed with Singular Value Decomposition. In that framework, Eigenvector 1 captured 98.70% of the variance and represented a power law.

The post said that the dominant mode showed a price proportional to time, raised to 5.7. The analyst called that pattern Bitcoin’s “base note” and its fundamental attractor. Next, the analyst said Eigenvectors 2 through 6 accounted for 1.29% of variance and captured oscillations around the trend. Then Dynamic Mode Decomposition extracted the Koopman eigenvalues tied to those oscillations.

According to the post, Modes 5 and 6 showed a period of 1,530 days, or 4.19 years. The analyst linked that frequency to Bitcoin’s halving cycle and wrote, “The 4-year cycle isn’t just a coincidence or narrative.”

Log Space, Reconstruction, and the Critical-System Claim

The analyst said the detected oscillation had an eigenvalue magnitude of 0.9985. That figure suggested a slightly decaying but stable pattern around the broader trend. The post also tied the result to renormalization group theory. In that explanation, Bitcoin behaves like a critical system near a phase transition, with a power law fixed point and log-periodic oscillations.

The analyst argued that linear space buried the four-year cycle in noise. By contrast, log space made the cycle visible because halvings affect price through percentage changes rather than simple additive moves.

To test the structure, the analyst reconstructed Bitcoin’s price dynamics with six eigenvectors. The post said the reconstruction produced an R² of 0.9678 and described the outcome as stronger than the raw data.

The analyst then wrote, “The math works. The physics checks out.” The post’s bottom line said Bitcoin’s power law and four-year cycle are “fundamental eigenmodes of a complex dynamical system.” If the cycle remains intact, does the latest drawdown reflect breakdown or reset? 

Reports Point to Liquidity, Not Theory, for 2026 Drop

CoinDesk described the first quarter of 2026 as a shaky start after Bitcoin’s October 2025 all-time high. The report said the drop to $60,000 looked severe, yet argued the market may be doing what it needs to build a stronger cycle.

The report said crypto usually absorbs heavy selling when macro conditions weaken, geopolitical tensions rise, and traditional markets slide. It listed elevated counterparty risk, tight liquidity, weak technical trends, fading ETF inflows, and stress in credit and banking markets.

Researchers also said crypto still trades mainly on global liquidity conditions despite wider adoption narratives. When liquidity expands, digital assets tend to rally, and when liquidity contracts, they often fall sharply.

Several forces now appear to be pulling liquidity from the system, according to the report. The Federal Reserve continues to reduce its balance sheet, while seasonal tax payments drain liquidity from the Treasury system.

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Tom Lee says Ethereum has outperformed gold since the war began despite crypto’s slump.

Ethereum fell below $2,000 as $104 million in long liquidations hit the market.

Fundstrat data shows Ethereum beat Bitcoin, gold, and stocks since late February.

Tom Lee is urging investors to rethink traditional safe-haven positions as digital assets begin to recover during a period of geopolitical conflict. The Fundstrat head of research said crypto has looked stronger than gold since the war started, even after a deep marketwide selloff erased nearly $2 trillion in value since October.

His comments arrived as the Ethereum price remained under pressure in spot trading, despite its stronger relative performance since late February. Ether fell 2.38% over the last 24 hours to $1,993 at press time, slipping below the closely watched $2,000 level as traders tracked liquidation data, ETF flows, and weakening technical indicators.

Crypto Rebound Reshapes Safe-Haven Debate

Lee said the current pullback in digital assets has created what he described as a “money trade” for the next year. He argued that crypto has outperformed since the war began, while gold has underperformed during the same period.

The broader backdrop remains severe. Bitcoin is down 47% from its October peak, while Ethereum has fallen nearly 60% over the same stretch. Similarly, many memecoins have dropped more than 90%, highlighting the scale of the correction across the sector.

Still, Fundstrat’s March research report showed Ethereum up 17% on a relative basis versus the S&P 500 since the US-Israeli war on Iran began in late February. The report also said Ether outperformed Bitcoin, gold, real estate, MSCI World Energy, and Mag-7 technology stocks during that period.

this speaks for itself… https://t.co/b9en5vvdrU pic.twitter.com/XNLujuvJ2w

— Thomas (Tom) Lee (not drummer) FundstratDirect.com (@fundstrat) March 26, 2026

Lee also acknowledged that markets remain difficult to navigate. He said the conflict with Iran, investor caution, and widespread misinformation have made positioning more challenging as many participants prefer to stay on the sidelines.

Ethereum Faces Pressure Despite Relative Strength

Even with improved relative performance, Ethereum’s spot market structure has weakened. ETHUSD broke below the $2,000 support level, marking a notable shift in market sentiment after repeated rejection near $2,200 earlier in the week.

Source: CoinGlass

Besides, market data showed more than $115 million in long liquidations over the last 24 hours, adding to price pressure. At the same time, demand indicators weakened as traders responded to lower conviction and softer market participation.

Institutional flows also turned negative. Spot ETH exchange-traded funds recorded $206.8 million in outflows across seven consecutive days, reducing a source of buying support that had previously helped steady the market.

Source: SoSoValue

Activity across decentralized markets also slowed. Declining decentralized exchange volumes and a falling ETH futures premium added to the bearish tone and reinforced the view that positioning had weakened.

Related: Trump Pledges to Crown U.S. the World’s Bitcoin Superpower and Crypto Hub

Technical Signals Point to Lower Support Zone

Technically, Ethereum’s daily chart reflected a softer structure across several indicators. The Relative Strength Index stood at 42, placing it in neutral territory but moving closer to oversold conditions below 30. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence also pointed lower.

Source: TradingView

The MACD line was at -9.70, below the signal line at 6.66, indicating downward momentum remained in place. Based on those readings, traders are watching the $1,900 to $1,800 range as the next major support zone. That area is being monitored for signs of buyer demand that could stabilize ETH’s price after the break below $2,000.

However, a failure to hold that zone would leave Ethereum exposed to a deeper move toward this year’s low near $1,747. For now, the contrast remains sharp: Ethereum has outperformed several major benchmarks during wartime markets, yet its immediate technical picture remains under clear pressure.

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Trump said the U.S. will become the world’s Bitcoin superpower and crypto capital.

The speech linked crypto policy, regulation, and reserves to U.S. financial leadership.

Bitcoin stayed volatile as Middle East tensions added pressure to global risk assets.

U.S. President Donald Trump used the FII PRIORITY Miami 2026 summit to place cryptocurrency at the center of his economic message, saying the United States would become the world’s Bitcoin superpower and crypto hub. His remarks marked one of the clearest political endorsements of digital assets from a sitting U.S. president and framed crypto as part of a broader competition for capital, innovation, and global financial influence.

The speech came during the March 25 to March 27 summit at the Faena Hotel in Miami Beach, where business leaders, investors, and policymakers gathered to discuss technology, capital flows, and economic resilience. In that setting, Trump described Bitcoin as “very powerful” and said growing numbers of people now want to use crypto for payments, underscoring how sharply his public stance has shifted since 2021.

Trump Recasts U.S. Crypto Policy Around Growth

During his address, Trump said the United States would become the “undisputed crypto capital and Bitcoin superpower of the world.” The statement extended a message he has repeated as his administration tries to present itself as more supportive of digital assets than previous governments.

His current position contrasts with his 2021 description of Bitcoin as “not money” and “a scam.” Regardless, since returning to office for a second term, he has taken a more supportive tone and linked crypto policy to national competitiveness. That shift has become a notable part of his economic messaging.

Beyond rhetoric, Trump pointed to policy actions that signaled a more formal role for crypto in the financial system. He signed an executive order establishing a Bitcoin Strategic Reserve and also supported the U.S. Digital Asset Stockpile. Those measures were presented as signs that his administration wants digital assets treated as part of the broader financial infrastructure.

Legislative Push Centers on Regulatory Clarity

Trump also highlighted two crypto-focused legislative efforts, the Genius Act and the Clarity Act. He said the purpose of those measures was to deliver regulatory clarity and replace what he described as a “war on crypto” with policies that encourage innovation.

That argument was framed against intensifying global competition for blockchain investment and digital asset businesses. The remarks positioned the United States as a potential destination for exchanges, mining firms, and institutional investors if clear rules and favorable policies are maintained.

The summit setting reinforced that message. FII PRIORITY Miami 2026 brought together investors and policymakers at a time when governments worldwide are competing to attract technology capital. In that context, Trump presented crypto-friendly regulation as an economic strategy rather than a niche market issue.

Bitcoin’s Market Path Adds Context to the Message

The policy push came against a backdrop of major price swings in Bitcoin. In 2024, the asset traded around its previous all-time high of $69,000. The rally later extended, with Bitcoin reaching a new record of $126,000 in October 2025 and lifting its market capitalization to $4 trillion.

According to reports, the rise was driven mainly by the launch of Bitcoin ETFs and by countries adding Bitcoin to their strategic reserves, following the U.S. taking the lead. Those developments strengthened the asset’s institutional profile and gave added weight to political efforts to frame crypto as part of national strategy.

Still, the market has remained highly sensitive to global shocks. Bitcoin was recently trading around $66,415 as geopolitical tensions in the Middle East weighed on digital assets and the broader crypto market.

Related: Bitcoin Miners Pivot to AI as Production Costs Keep Climbing

Geopolitical Tension Complicates the Crypto Narrative

The event unfolded as markets faced additional pressure from the conflict involving Iran, which raised concerns about energy supply disruptions and wider economic stability. Trump used part of his remarks to claim Iran had been “decimated” and was no longer a threat.

He said U.S. armed forces had been “annihilating” Iran and claimed the country was “begging to make a deal.” He also said Iran allowed 10 oil tankers through the Strait of Hormuz as a “present” to the United States, tying his foreign policy claims to the wider market environment surrounding his crypto message.

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CoinShares says rising costs are now driving public bitcoin miners toward AI revenue.

Lower hash price and shrinking margins now strain mining balance sheets further.

Bitcoin sales and larger debt loads now finance a broader pivot into AI data hubs.

Public Bitcoin miners are moving into AI infrastructure as mining costs rise above market prices, according to CoinShares’ Q1 2026 mining report. The report said the weighted average cash cost reached about $79,995 per bitcoin in Q4 2025. CoinDesk also estimated losses near $19,000 per BTC mined last week while bitcoin traded between $68,000 and $70,000.

AI contracts redraw the sector

CoinShares said the public mining sector has announced more than $70 billion in cumulative AI and high-performance computing contracts. Core Scientific’s expanded agreement with CoreWeave alone carries a $10.2 billion value over 12 years.

TeraWulf has secured $12.8 billion in contracted HPC revenue. Hut 8 also signed a $7 billion, 15-year lease for AI infrastructure at its River Bend campus. In parallel, Cipher Digital reached a multi-billion-dollar deal with Google-backed Fluidstack.

CoinShares said listed miners could derive as much as 70% of revenue from AI by the end of 2026, up from about 30% today. Core Scientific already gets 39% of total revenue from AI colocation. TeraWulf stands at 27%, while IREN is at 9% and expanding with up to 200 megawatts of liquid-cooled GPU capacity.

The economics now drive that shift. CoinShares placed bitcoin mining infrastructure at roughly $700,000 to $1 million per megawatt. By contrast, AI infrastructure costs about $8 million to $15 million per megawatt, yet it offers higher and steadier returns. At the same time, hash price fell to about $28 to $30 per petahash per day in early March.

Debt rises as bitcoin holdings fall

CoinShares said miners are financing the transition through debt and bitcoin sales. IREN now carries $3.7 billion in convertible notes across five series. TeraWulf holds $5.7 billion in total debt through convertible notes and senior secured notes at its compute subsidiary.

Cipher Digital issued $1.7 billion in senior secured notes in November. As a result, its quarterly interest expense jumped from $3.2 million for the first nine months to $33.4 million in Q4 alone. Those debt loads now resemble large infrastructure projects rather than traditional mining operations.

Miners are also shrinking treasury positions. CoinShares said public miners have reduced BTC treasuries by more than 15,000 BTC from peak levels. Core Scientific sold about 1,900 BTC worth $175 million in January and planned to liquidate substantially all remaining holdings in Q1 2026.

Bitdeer reduced its treasury to zero in February. Riot Platforms sold 1,818 BTC worth $162 million in December. Marathon, the largest public holder with 53,822 BTC, also widened its March 10-K policy to allow sales from its full reserve as pressure rose on its $350 million bitcoin-backed credit facility.

Related: BlackRock Brings BUIDL to Uniswap DeFi Exchange Trading Hubs

Hashrate slips while valuations diverge

That shift creates a clear tension. The same companies that secure the bitcoin network are selling bitcoin and redirecting capital into AI. What happens to Bitcoin’s security budget if that migration keeps accelerating?

The network hashrate already reflects strain. CoinShares said it peaked near 1,160 exahashes per second in early October 2025 and later fell to about 920 EH/s. The network also recorded three straight negative difficulty adjustments, the first such run since July 2022.

Markets have priced the split. Miners with secured HPC contracts now trade at 12.3 times next-twelve-month sales. Pure-play miners trade at 5.9 times. That gap gives companies another reason to deepen AI exposure.

Meanwhile, mining geography keeps changing. The United States, China, and Russia now control about 68% of global hashrate, while the U.S. gained roughly two percentage points in Q4. Paraguay and Ethiopia also entered the global top 10 through HIVE’s 300-megawatt Paraguay operation and Bitdeer’s 40-megawatt Ethiopia facility.

CoinShares now forecasts hashrate could reach 1.8 zetahashes by the end of 2026 and 2 zetahashes by the end of March 2027. Still, that path depends on bitcoin recovering to $100,000 by year-end. If prices stay below $80,000, CoinShares expects lower hash price, deeper hashrate pressure, and more miner exits as next-generation machines such as Bitmain’s S23 series and Bitdeer’s SEALMINER A3 roll out.

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Singapurský soud stanovil právní hranici poté, co online útoky následovaly po exploitu Resupply.

Rozhodnutí ukázalo, že spory v DeFi mohou vyvolat soudní akci, když se veřejné obvinění stane urážlivým.

Vnímané spojení Curve s Resupply prohloubilo následky a rozšířilo reputační škodu.

Singapurský soud přiměl kryptospor vyjít z Telegramových chatů a příspěvků na X a do formálních právních záznamů. Soud pro ochranu před obtěžováním nařídil dvěma jednotlivcům, aby přestali vydávat vyhrožující nebo urážlivé výroky o přispěvateli Curve Finance Haowi Wongovi po několikaměsíčním sporu spojeném s exploitem Resupply za 9,3 milionu dolarů.

Bitcoin and ether weakened as Treasury yields stayed high and relief hopes faded.

Bond volatility overtook oil and became the market’s clearest macro source of strain.

Traders now watch yields and policy risk more closely than war-driven headlines.

Crypto prices fell again Friday as Treasury yields became the market’s main macro signal. Bitcoin traded near $68,639 and ether near $2,061.81 after a brief relief rally earlier this week faded. The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield held near 4.42%, while hopes for quick Iran de-escalation weakened and traders shifted from oil headlines to tighter financial conditions. The shift left digital assets trading with the broader rates complex, not against it. 

Bond Stress Moves to the Front

The Kobeissi Letter said the market’s center of gravity had moved from the oil spike to the rates shock. Adam Kobeissi wrote that the bond market posed a bigger problem than energy prices. In a longer note, the firm said bond markets were now shaping equities, commodities, and policy. The thread gained wide circulation on X as bond volatility climbed. 

This is truly historic:

In just 27 days of the Iran War, the discussion has now become about Fed rate HIKES.

Just weeks ago, investors were debating how many rate cuts the Fed would implement in 2026.

Now? There's a 48% chance of an interest rate HIKE by January 2027.

And,… https://t.co/ccQ91LLH3g pic.twitter.com/ve2drzl4Rb

— The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) March 26, 2026

That argument matched broader market action on Thursday. Reuters reported that the White House extended its Iran deadline, yet yields did not stay down. By session end, the 10-year yield had reached 4.415%, its highest since July. The move reinforced the idea that rate pressure had overtaken the oil headline. 

Mortgage rates had already hit their highest level since October. Fed Governor Lisa Cook said the war had shifted risks toward inflation, and reports said futures markets showed essentially zero chance of a rate cut this year. That shift tightened the macro backdrop for volatile assets. Can crypto recover while yields keep rising and policy relief stays absent? 

Relief Rally Fades as Borrowing Costs Rise

The market had shown the other side of that trade on March 23. After Trump said the United States would postpone strikes and pursue talks, Reuters reported that oil prices tumbled and global stocks rebounded. Bloomberg said bitcoin rose more than 5% and touched $71,794 in New York. Risk appetite returned quickly, but the bounce proved brief. 

That move later unwound. By Friday, Bitcoin had fallen back below $69,000, and ether also traded lower as investors returned to yields, policy risk, and tighter financial conditions. Reuters also reported that the 10-year yield had climbed from 3.96% before the attacks to 4.39% by Tuesday, showing how quickly borrowing costs had reset. The relief trade lost ground as borrowing costs kept rising. 

Arthur Hayes framed the crypto angle in a shorter way on X. He wrote, “Almost there … what is Buffalo Bill Bessent going to do to calm the UST market?” Hayes referred to Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent in the post. That line pointed to the same issue facing traders: whether Treasury stress could force a response from Washington.

Almost there …

If Trump invades Iran what is Buffalo Bill Bessent going to do to calm the UST market? pic.twitter.com/7H2qakadgT

— Arthur Hayes (@CryptoHayes) March 26, 2026

Markets Reprice the Path Ahead

The stress was visible beyond yields. The MOVE Index stood at 115.02, up 17.86% on the day, while Reuters said rate futures reflected essentially zero chance of a cut this year. Bond-market volatility had become a market signal in its own right. That reversal followed higher oil prices, firmer inflation fears, and uncertainty over how long the conflict may last. 

Related: US Bitcoin ETFs Shed $171M as IBIT Leads Daily Outflows

Kobeissi tied the repricing to a weaker labor backdrop. The firm pointed to deep downward payroll revisions over three years and a February unemployment duration of 25.7 weeks. It also argued that markets now see rates staying largely unchanged through September 2027, reversing late-2025 debate over how many cuts 2026 would bring. That view framed the labor market as another source of macro fragility. 

For crypto desks, the watchlist now looks familiar. Traders are tracking Treasury yields, rate expectations, and the credibility of each de-escalation headline. For now, the market is watching the same dashboard across asset classes. As long as bond volatility stays elevated, bitcoin and ether may keep trading less like geopolitical hedges and more like liquidity-sensitive risk assets. 

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David Sacks opouští roli kryptoměnového cara Bílého domu poté, co dosáhl 130denního limitu

Sacks nyní bude spolupředsedat PCAST a radit Trumpovi v oblasti AI a širší politiky technologií

Tato změna přichází, když se legislativa o kryptoměnách v USA potýká se zpožděními a spory o odměny stablecoinů

David Sacks opouští svou funkci zvláštního poradce prezidenta Donalda Trumpa pro umělou inteligenci a kryptoměny poté, co dosáhl 130denního limitu pro zvláštní vládní zaměstnance. Podle zpráv Bílý dům udrží cara Davida Sackse ve svém technologickém okruhu, ale na novém místě, které rozšiřuje jeho pravomoci nad rámec politiky kryptoměn.

ARK Invest využije data Kalshi k sledování tržních šancí, KPI, schválení a technologických milníků

Partnerství přidává predikční trhy k výzkumu, zajištění a plánování rizik založeném na událostech

Krok ARK přichází, když Fed a Cornell zkoumají trhy událostí a regulátoři váží nová pravidla

ARK Invest začleňuje data z predikčních trhů Kalshi do svého výzkumného procesu, což znamená nový institucionální případ použití nástrojů, které byly dříve vnímány převážně skrze prizma obchodní aktivity. Tento krok umisťuje aktuální tržní pravděpodobnosti vedle stávajících výzkumných metod firmy, protože správci aktiv hledají rychlejší signály o makro událostech, milnících společnosti a výsledcích politiky.

Bitcoin ETF v USA zaznamenaly odliv ve výši 171,22 milionu dolarů, když se 26. března prodeje opět výrazně rozšířily.

Odvody vedené IBIT od BlackRocku, i když jeho dlouhodobý základ přílivu zůstal dominantní.

Široké odkupy se rozšířily mezi emitenty, zatímco celková aktiva se držela poblíž 88,36 miliardy dolarů celkově.

Bitcoin ETF v USA zaznamenaly čistý odliv ve výši 171,22 milionu dolarů dne 26. března, podle SoSoValue. Odlivy se rozšířily mezi hlavními emitenty, vedenými BlackRockem, Bitwise, Fidelity a Grayscale. I tak kumulativní čisté přílivy činily 56,16 miliardy dolarů, denní obchodní objem dosáhl 2,49 miliardy dolarů a celková čistá aktiva činila 88,36 miliardy dolarů, což odpovídá 6,40 % tržní kapitalizace Bitcoinu.

Zhou řekl, že kvalita plateb závisí na vhodnosti pro uživatele spíše než na čisté transakční rychlosti.

Varoval, že stablecoiny mohou obejít kontroly a zkomplikovat obnovu podvodů v rozsahu.

Řekl, že blockchain si zaslouží debatu, přesto jeho užitečnost musí odpovídat skutečným potřebám plateb.

Bývalý guvernér PBOC Zhou Xiaochuan řekl na výroční konferenci Boao fóra pro Asii 2026, že uživatelé, nikoli jedno měřítko, by měli posuzovat platební systém. Také požadoval silnější kontroly proti praní špinavých peněz a varoval, že stablecoiny mohou unikat kontrolám souladu, podle zprávy Caixin citované TechFlow. Co dělá platební systém skutečně vhodný pro účel?

Bílá velryba uvedla, že dnes trvale uzamkla 500 milionů mincí v jedné transakci.

Je také pojmenován plán kontinuity pro obsah a operace DEX LP po tomto kroku.

Prohlášení spojilo jeho odchod s rodinným napětím, duševním stresem a slábnoucí vášní pro kryptoměny.

Bílá velryba uvedla 26. března, že trvale uzamkla 500 milionů dolarů v mincích Bílého velryby v jedné transakci a nastínila plán kontinuity pro držitele. Účet popsal uzamčenou zásobu jako závazek ve výši 13 milionů dolarů a uvedl, že se vzdá CT. Prohlášení spojilo tento krok s rodinnou krizí, klesajícím duševním zdravím a rostoucí únavou z kryptoměn.