Crypto Assets Manager

Extreme Fear Drags BTC Down

Extreme Fear Drags BTC Down Weekly close under $60K or above $70K?
BTC
3.74%

· 9h
BTC$BTC’s action this week is telling, not because it’s bullish, but because it speaks to sentiment exhaustion.

We just saw the Crypto Fear and Greed Index on CoinMarketCap hit some of its lowest levels of the year, and over the last 90 days has barely budged out of extreme pessimism.

Yesterday: Extreme Fear - 8

Last Week: Extreme Fear - 5

On December 15, 2018, BTC reached a low of $3,023 while the Fear & Greed Index registered 11.

On March 17, 2020, BTC hit $3,897 with the index at 8.

On June 18, 2022, BTC fell to $17,420, with the index reading 6.

Most recently, on February 12, 2026, BTC traded around $67,293 while the Fear & Greed Index showed 5.

These readings aren’t noise. They reflect a market that’s been grinding lower with minimal conviction.

Since the recent breakdown attempts, BTC$BTC has been dancing between key levels. The real story now is in the weekly close dynamics, will we confirm sub-60K pressure, or find enough support to push back toward 70K?

Here’s what stands out: The Fear & Greed Index signaling extreme fear often precedes volatility compressions, not immediate rallies.

Price behavior near macro support levels shows buyers aren’t capitulating wholesale, even amid fear.

But liquidity conditions remain tight and macro headwinds aren’t gone. This feels less like confirmation of a new leg and more like a market seeking balance between exhausted sellers and cautious buyers.

If BTC stabilizes above critical levels and fear begins to thaw, sentiment could improve quickly. If not, we stay range-bound and choppy markets test conviction.

For now this is a narrative of relief, not triumph.Manage risk. Observe how levels hold. And remember: markets turn not when fear disappears, but when selling pressure finally stops.

Extreme Fear Drags BTC$BTC Down Weekly close under 60K or above 70K?

Well this depends on what technical structure and price action are saying on the chart because the Extreme Fear that is in the market currently as kept Sellers (Bear) in control and also because Bitcoin always follows priority scenario, to be precise here, After BTC failing to consolidate above the key technical & volume level at $68,000, price rolled over into a confident decline.

However, the projected buyer zone has not yet been tapped, and the market has formed only a local rebound.

CURRENT STRUCTURE

Buying attempts are occurring on weak volume

Resistance is forming near current prices with increasing activity

Liquidity magnets remain below price

The priority remains on the seller’s side.

ALTERNATIVE SCENARIO

A retest of $68,000 the previously defended level could trigger renewed selling pressure.

In that case, intraday shorts remain valid, targeting the $65,000–$63,000 buyer zone.

🟢 Buy Zones

• $65,000–$63,000 (maximum volume area)

• $72,200–$56,000 (daily buying zone)

🔴 Sell Zones

• $72,500–$75,200 (selling pressure)

• $77,800–$79,200 (accumulated volume)

• $82,000–$85,500 (volume anomalies)

• $87,600–$90,500 (accumulated volume)

Until price reclaims and holds above $68K with strong volume confirmation, rallies appear corrective rather than impulsive

BITCOIN MAY LOOK QUIET, BUT THE OPTIONS MARKET IS ALIVE.

BTC$BTC is chopping between $65K–$73K, yet under the surface, the derivatives market is tense.

Open interest has surged to 452k BTC$BTC (up from 255k BTC after December expiry).

1- and 3-month implied volatility jumped roughly 10 vols.

Put demand spiked, skew widened from 6% to 18%.

This isn’t about betting on a rally. It’s aggressive hedging.

Even more telling: options remain cheap relative to realized volatility, meaning there’s fuel for implied volatility to rise further, not fall. The pressure is building, not easing.

Dealers are short gamma between $58K–$74K. Translation: once Bitcoin breaks out of this range, hedging flows can amplify the move, and history shows downside cracks can be brutal.

On the chart, price seems calm. In the plumbing, stress is screaming. And when that gap widens, Bitcoin rarely stays quiet for long.

#BTC Price Analysis# #Altcoin Season#

A weekly close under $60K looks more likely than above $70K right now.

Recovery above $70K would need strong buying momentum and renewed confidence.

Extreme fear is weighing heavily on Bitcoin, causing sellers to dominate the market.

Support around $60K is being tested, and a weekly close below this level could reinforce bearish sentiment.

Investors remain cautious and hesitant to enter long positions amid uncertainty.

A rebound above $70K would require strong buying pressure and a shift in market psychology.

Short-term volatility is high, making risk management essential for traders.

Sentiment indicators show that fear is currently stronger than optimism.

The next few days will be critical in determining whether Bitcoin consolidates or falls further.


Patience and careful observation are key in navigating this volatile phase

@Fogo Official
We just saw the Crypto Fear and Greed Index on CoinMarketCap hit some of its lowest levels of the year, and over the last 90 days has barely budged out of extreme pessimism.

Yesterday: Extreme Fear - 8

Last Week: Extreme Fear - 5

On December 15, 2018, BTC reached a low of $3,023 while the Fear & Greed Index registered 11.

On March 17, 2020, BTC hit $3,897 with the index at 8.

On June 18, 2022, BTC fell to $17,420, with the index reading 6.

Most recently, on February 12, 2026, BTC traded around $67,293 while the Fear & Greed Index showed 5.

These readings aren’t noise. They reflect a market that’s been grinding lower with minimal conviction.

Since the recent breakdown attempts, BTC$BTC has been dancing between key levels. The real story now is in the weekly close dynamics, will we confirm sub-60K pressure, or find enough support to push back toward 70K?

Here’s what stands out: The Fear & Greed Index signaling extreme fear often precedes volatility compressions, not immediate rallies.

Price behavior near macro support levels shows buyers aren’t capitulating wholesale, even amid fear.

But liquidity conditions remain tight and macro headwinds aren’t gone. This feels less like confirmation of a new leg and more like a market seeking balance between exhausted sellers and cautious buyers.

If BTC stabilizes above critical levels and fear begins to thaw, sentiment could improve quickly. If not, we stay range-bound and choppy markets test conviction.

For now this is a narrative of relief, not triumph.Manage risk. Observe how levels hold. And remember: markets turn not when fear disappears, but when selling pressure finally stops.

Extreme Fear Drags BTC$BTC Down Weekly close under 60K or above 70K?

Well this depends on what technical structure and price action are saying on the chart because the Extreme Fear that is in the market currently as kept Sellers (Bear) in control and also because Bitcoin always follows priority scenario, to be precise here, After BTC failing to consolidate above the key technical & volume level at $68,000, price rolled over into a confident decline.

However, the projected buyer zone has not yet been tapped, and the market has formed only a local rebound.

$XRP
$DEFI
XRP (XRP) is seeing renewed attention after Ripple outlined plans to expand its role in decentralized finance, but price data shows only a modest move so far.

XRP currently trades around 1.44 USD with 24h performance roughly flat, suggesting any spike may have been intraday or short lived.

A DeFi roadmap for XRP Ledger matters because it could add lending, AMMs, and tokenized assets on top of XRP’s payments role.

The key things to watch are concrete launches, on chain liquidity growth, and whether developers and users actually adopt new DeFi features.

Deep Dive
1. Price Reaction So Far
At the latest snapshot, XRP (XRP) trades near 1.44 USD, with 24h change close to zero and 24h volume around 2.62 B USD.

This means that while headlines describe a “jump,” the net 24h move is small, implying either an earlier intraday spike that retraced or that the narrative is building ahead of any sustained move.

For traders, the main takeaway is that narrative and positioning may be shifting even if the 24h candle does not yet show a clean breakout.

2. Why A DeFi Roadmap Matters
XRP Ledger was designed for fast, low cost value transfer and has historically lagged Ethereum style chains in DeFi breadth.

A DeFi roadmap from Ripple typically implies plans to deepen on chain functionality, for example better support for automated market makers, lending, stablecoins, or improved programmability via sidechains and smart contract layers.

If executed well, this can increase XRPL’s total value locked, create more organic demand for XRP as a bridge asset, and diversify its use case beyond cross border payments.

What this means: The roadmap is less about today’s price tick and more about whether XRP can evolve from a payments token into a platform asset with fee and liquidity sinks.

3. What To Watch Next
First, look for specific product milestones such as the launch dates of DeFi primitives on XRPL, EVM compatible environments, or official liquidity incentive programs.

Second, track hard metrics like XRPL DeFi TVL, on chain swap volumes, and the share of XRP used in DeFi versus simple transfers.

Third, keep an eye on regulatory headlines around Ripple and XRP, since compliance constraints can influence how aggressively institutions are willing to use XRPL based DeFi.

Conclusion
Ripple’s DeFi roadmap points to an attempt to turn XRP from a pure payments token into the core asset of a broader financial stack on XRP Ledger. The current 24h price data does not yet show a decisive “jump,” so the real test will be whether actual DeFi deployments, liquidity and developer activity on XRPL increase over the coming months.

@Plasma $XPL #PlasmaXPL
Some projects feel like they’re constantly chasing attention. Others quietly build while letting the work speak over time. Plasma feels closer to the second category, and that’s exactly why following XPL$XPL stays interesting for me. #Plasma
{alpha}(560x405fbc9004d857903bfd6b3357792d71a50726b0)

Bitcoin's outlook is a tug-of-war between institutional adoption and macro headwinds.

@Vanar @Vanar vanar, tag token
Institutional Demand: ETF flows and potential 401(k) access could unlock massive capital, providing structural price support.
Regulatory Shifts: Upcoming U.S. legislation and SEC engagement may reduce uncertainty, boosting institutional confidence.

Macro Sensitivity: Fed policy and inflation data will heavily influence BTC as a risk asset, driving near-term volatility.

Deep Dive
1. Institutional Catalysts & Capital Flows (Bullish Impact)
Overview: The primary driver is institutional capital via U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs, which hold over 1.51 million BTC (7.2% of supply). Recent weekly outflows of $1.8 billion indicate waning short-term confidence (Coinspeaker). However, a major medium-term catalyst is the potential opening of the $12.5 trillion 401(k) market to crypto, which could funnel billions into blue-chip assets like BTC (crypto.news).

What this means: Sustained ETF inflows are a direct, measurable source of buy-side pressure. Approval for 401(k) allocations would represent a new, long-term demand channel, structurally reducing circulating supply and supporting higher price floors.

2. Regulatory & Policy Developments (Mixed Impact)
Overview: Regulatory clarity is advancing. SEC Chair Paul Atkins will speak at a major Bitcoin conference in April 2026, signaling unprecedented engagement (CoinMarketCap). Concurrently, the Trump administration is drafting a framework for a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve and pushing bipartisan stablecoin legislation (Bitcoinist).

What this means: Clear, supportive regulation reduces institutional entry barriers and can trigger bullish sentiment. However, the process is slow, and any regulatory setbacks or delays could renew uncertainty, causing negative price reactions in the interim.

3. Macroeconomic Pressure & Sentiment (Bearish Impact)
Overview: Bitcoin is currently trading as a liquidity-sensitive risk asset, not a dollar hedge. It fell 6% to $84,000 on January 29 amid a broad market selloff, showing high correlation with tech stocks and gold (Bitcoin Magazine). Key U.S. inflation (CPI, PCE) and jobs data directly sway Fed rate expectations, which are the dominant short-term price drivers.

What this means: In a "higher-for-longer" rate environment, Bitcoin faces headwinds from a strong dollar and reduced risk appetite. Until it decouples from traditional markets, its price will remain vulnerable to negative macro surprises and risk-off events.

Conclusion
Bitcoin's path hinges on institutional adoption clashing with macroeconomic forces. A holder must weigh long-term promise against short-term volatility. Will sustained ETF inflows re-emerge before the next macro shock?

Bitcoin's outlook is a tug-of-war between institutional adoption and macro headwinds.

Institutional Demand: ETF flows and potential 401(k) access could unlock massive capital, providing structural price support.

Regulatory Shifts: Upcoming U.S. legislation and SEC engagement may reduce uncertainty, boosting institutional confidence.

Macro Sensitivity: Fed policy and inflation data will heavily influence BTC as a risk asset, driving near-term volatility.

Deep Dive
1. Institutional Catalysts & Capital Flows (Bullish Impact)
Overview: The primary driver is institutional capital via U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs, which hold over 1.51 million BTC (7.2% of supply). Recent weekly outflows of $1.8 billion indicate waning short-term confidence (Coinspeaker). However, a major medium-term catalyst is the potential opening of the $12.5 trillion 401(k) market to crypto, which could funnel billions into blue-chip assets like BTC (crypto.news).

What this means: Sustained ETF inflows are a direct, measurable source of buy-side pressure. Approval for 401(k) allocations would represent a new, long-term demand channel, structurally reducing circulating supply and supporting higher price floors.

2. Regulatory & Policy Developments (Mixed Impact)
Overview: Regulatory clarity is advancing. SEC Chair Paul Atkins will speak at a major Bitcoin conference in April 2026, signaling unprecedented engagement (CoinMarketCap). Concurrently, the Trump administration is drafting a framework for a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve and pushing bipartisan stablecoin legislation (Bitcoinist).

What this means: Clear, supportive regulation reduces institutional entry barriers and can trigger bullish sentiment. However, the process is slow, and any regulatory setbacks or delays could renew uncertainty, causing negative price reactions in the interim.

3. Macroeconomic Pressure & Sentiment (Bearish Impact)
Overview: Bitcoin is currently trading as a liquidity-sensitive risk asset, not a dollar hedge. It fell 6% to $84,000 on January 29 amid a broad market selloff, showing high correlation with tech stocks and gold (Bitcoin Magazine). Key U.S. inflation (CPI, PCE) and jobs data directly sway Fed rate expectations, which are the dominant short-term price drivers.

What this means: In a "higher-for-longer" rate environment, Bitcoin faces headwinds from a strong dollar and reduced risk appetite. Until it decouples from traditional markets, its price will remain vulnerable to negative macro surprises and risk-off events.

Conclusion
Bitcoin's path hinges on institutional adoption clashing with macroeconomic forces. A holder must weigh long-term promise against short-term volatility. Will sustained ETF inflows re-emerge before the next macro shock?

Bitcoin's outlook is a tug-of-war between institutional adoption and macro headwinds.

Institutional Demand: ETF flows and potential 401(k) access could unlock massive capital, providing structural price support.

Regulatory Shifts: Upcoming U.S. legislation and SEC engagement may reduce uncertainty, boosting institutional confidence.

Macro Sensitivity: Fed policy and inflation data will heavily influence BTC as a risk asset, driving near-term volatility.

1. Institutional Catalysts & Capital Flows (Bullish Impact)
Overview: The primary driver is institutional capital via U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs, which hold over 1.51 million $BTC (7.2% of supply). Recent weekly outflows of $1.8 billion indicate waning short-term confidence (Coinspeaker). However, a major medium-term catalyst is the potential opening of the $12.5 trillion 401(k) market to crypto, which could funnel billions into blue-chip assets like
$BTC (crypto.news).
What this means: Sustained ETF inflows are a direct, measurable source of buy-side pressure. Approval for 401(k) allocations would represent a new, long-term demand channel, structurally reducing circulating supply and supporting higher price floors.

2. Regulatory & Policy Developments (Mixed Impact)
Overview: Regulatory clarity is advancing. SEC Chair Paul Atkins will speak at a major Bitcoin conference in April 2026, signaling unprecedented engagement (CoinMarketCap). Concurrently, the Trump administration is drafting a framework for a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve and pushing bipartisan stablecoin legislation (Bitcoinist).

What this means: Clear, supportive regulation reduces institutional entry barriers and can trigger bullish sentiment. However, the process is slow, and any regulatory setbacks or delays could renew uncertainty, causing negative price reactions in the interim.

3. Macroeconomic Pressure & Sentiment (Bearish Impact)
Overview: Bitcoin is currently trading as a liquidity-sensitive risk asset, not a dollar hedge. It fell 6% to $84,000 on January 29 amid a broad market selloff, showing high correlation with tech stocks and gold (Bitcoin Magazine). Key U.S. inflation (CPI, PCE) and jobs data directly sway Fed rate expectations, which are the dominant short-term price drivers.

What this means: In a "higher-for-longer" rate environment, Bitcoin faces headwinds from a strong dollar and reduced risk appetite. Until it decouples from traditional markets, its price will remain vulnerable to negative macro surprises and risk-off events.

Conclusion
Bitcoin's path hinges on institutional adoption clashing with macroeconomic forces. A holder must weigh long-term promise against short-term volatility. Will sustained ETF inflows re-emerge before the next macro shock?

Bitcoin's outlook is a tug-of-war between institutional adoption and macro headwinds.

Institutional Demand: ETF flows and potential 401(k) access could unlock massive capital, providing structural price support.

Regulatory Shifts: Upcoming U.S. legislation and SEC engagement may reduce uncertainty, boosting institutional confidence.

Macro Sensitivity: Fed policy and inflation data will heavily influence BTC as a risk asset, driving near-term volatility.

$BTC Deep Dive
1. Institutional Catalysts & Capital Flows (Bullish Impact)
Overview: The primary driver is institutional capital via U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs, which hold over 1.51 million BTC (7.2% of supply). Recent weekly outflows of $1.8 billion indicate waning short-term confidence (Coinspeaker). However, a major medium-term catalyst is the potential opening of the $12.5 trillion 401(k) market to crypto, which could funnel billions into blue-chip assets like BTC (crypto.news).

What this means: Sustained ETF inflows are a direct, measurable source of buy-side pressure. Approval for 401(k) allocations would represent a new, long-term demand channel, structurally reducing circulating supply and supporting higher price floors.

2. Regulatory & Policy Developments (Mixed Impact)
Overview: Regulatory clarity is advancing. SEC Chair Paul Atkins will speak at a major Bitcoin conference in April 2026, signaling unprecedented engagement (CoinMarketCap). Concurrently, the Trump administration is drafting a framework for a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve and pushing bipartisan stablecoin legislation (Bitcoinist).

What this means: Clear, supportive regulation reduces institutional entry barriers and can trigger bullish sentiment. However, the process is slow, and any regulatory setbacks or delays could renew uncertainty, causing negative price reactions in the interim.

3. Macroeconomic Pressure & Sentiment (Bearish Impact)
Overview: Bitcoin is currently trading as a liquidity-sensitive risk asset, not a dollar hedge. It fell 6% to $84,000 on January 29 amid a broad market selloff, showing high correlation with tech stocks and gold (Bitcoin Magazine). Key U.S. inflation (CPI, PCE) and jobs data directly sway Fed rate expectations, which are the dominant short-term price drivers.

What this means: In a "higher-for-longer" rate environment, Bitcoin faces headwinds from a strong dollar and reduced risk appetite. Until it decouples from traditional markets, its price will remain vulnerable to negative macro surprises and risk-off events.

Conclusion
Bitcoin's path hinges on institutional adoption clashing with macroeconomic forces. A holder must weigh long-term promise against short-term volatility. Will sustained ETF inflows re-emerge before the next macro shock?

Ethereum fell 5.25% over the last 24h, underperforming the broader crypto market's 4.32% drop. This sharp decline extends recent losses, with ETH down 3.21% over the past week. Here are the main factors:
Broad Market Downturn – Bitcoin plunged to a two-month low, dragging major altcoins like ETH lower in a correlated sell-off.
Leverage Unwind & Short Pressure – Over $800M in crypto positions were liquidated, with a notable whale profiting from a large ETH short, accelerating downward momentum.
Geopolitical Risk Aversion – Rising tensions between the U.S. and Iran spurred a flight to traditional safe havens, dampening appetite for risk assets like crypto