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Is the Bottom Bitcoin Close? On-Chain Data Starts to Send Signals

One widely used on-chain indicator for reading market cycles is Supply in Profit Market Bands. This indicator measures how much Bitcoin supply is still in a profitable condition, then divides it into several market phases, starting from accumulation, distribution, and up to the bull market.

Interestingly, in the previous cycle, this indicator tended to stay in the bottom area for more than 3 months before Bitcoin actually formed a price bottom and began a new uptrend.

The same pattern is showing again in the current cycle. This suggests that selling pressure is starting to ease and the chance of a bottom forming is getting higher.

Even so, this doesn’t mean Bitcoin will become bullish immediately in the near term. The bottom-formation phase usually takes time and is still marked by high volatility. Therefore, traders should remain disciplined with risk management, while long-term investors can start paying attention to gradual accumulation opportunities.

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#Bitcoin #Crypto #OnChain #MarketCycle #menjaditrader

Apple Gives Signals, S&P 500 and Nasdaq May Continue Correction

Apple’s stock movement is again drawing attention after a pattern appeared which, in several previous periods, was often followed by a correction in the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100. Although it is not a guarantee that the market will fall, signals like this are worth including in the list of indicators to monitor.

This condition also aligns with growing concerns about the technology sector, which has recently been losing momentum. If the pressure continues, it is not impossible that the US stock market could enter a consolidation phase or a correction in the coming period.

For crypto traders, this development is important to watch because the movement of risky assets often correlates. When sentiment in the stock market weakens, volatility in the crypto market may also increase.

Stay disciplined with risk management and don’t rely on just one indicator to make trading decisions.

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#menjaditrader #crypto #bitcoin #nasdaq #sp500 $AAPLB

Bitcoin is still showing pressure on the weekly timeframe. The current area is interesting to watch, but always prioritize confirmation before making any decision.

Focus on the plan, not emotions. The market will always provide opportunities for those who are patient.

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$TAO OUTLOOK | SHORT 🔴
Entry 198.08
SL 200.15

Total market cap is in a crucial area.

A bounce off support has started to show, but resistance is still the main obstacle.

Wait for confirmation. Don’t rush to take a position just because you see a green candle.

Save for the next market update and Follow to Become a Trader for other crypto analysis. $BTC

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Because the main goal is indeed for personal journaling. I want to test their signal results myself in a transparent way. Is the performance really as good as they claim, or does it only look good from the promotion?

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Always use risk management. All signals are not a guarantee of profit and not financial advice. $BTC

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This Single Number Explains Why Gold Is Still Hard to Fly

Market expectations for a September rate hike by the Fed briefly reached a level equivalent to 108% from a single 25-basis-point increase. This figure above 100% isn’t a literal probability, but it indicates the market temporarily priced in a very strong likelihood of a hike, even opening the possibility of a more aggressive move.

Since mid-June, expectations for rate hikes have continued to hold above the 50% threshold. In other words, the market is still more worried about the Fed raising rates than it is hoping for a cut.

This situation is not friendly for gold. High rate expectations typically keep bond yields and the dollar strong, while gold offers no yield. As a result, every rise in gold is at risk of being capped as long as the “high-for-long rates” narrative hasn’t truly gone away.

For traders, don’t rush to chase a gold rally just because the price bounced. Monitor rate-hike expectations, US 10Y, DXY, and US inflation data. Gold may have more room to move higher when the market starts to leave behind the rate-hike scenario.

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#menjaditrader #Gold #XAUUSD #FOMC #Trading $BTC $XAUT

🔥 LIVE SIGNAL - MT Journal 🔥

Pair: VVV/USDT
Side: 🟢 LONG
Analis: CRYPTOCIUM
Entry: 11.433
SL: 9.683
TP: 13.183

✅ MT Journal — Smart Trading Journal

US$1 Trillion Evaporates from Wall Street, Crypto Must Be On Alert

More than US$1 trillion in market value of American stocks was reported to have vanished in just one day. Heavy selling pressure hit Wall Street again, indicating that investors are starting to reduce exposure to risky assets.

Such conditions are important for crypto traders to watch. When the U.S. stock market shifts into risk-off mode, Bitcoin and altcoins usually get hit as investors tend to move funds into assets considered safer.

If stock weakness is accompanied by a stronger U.S. dollar and rising U.S. Treasury yields, pressure on crypto could become even greater. However, after sharp declines, two-way volatility also typically increases. So don’t rush into short positions or assume that every drop is an opportunity to buy.

Monitor Nasdaq’s movements, the DXY, the U.S. 10Y, as well as Bitcoin’s reaction in the nearest support area before taking a position. In market conditions like this, managing risk matters far more than forcing an entry.

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#becometrader #Bitcoin #Crypto #WallStreet #MarketUpdate $BTC

Bear tumbang, bull tumbang. Traders who have a system stay standing.

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Winning doesn't mean every position is always profitable. Winning means staying disciplined, consistent, and not falling when the market changes.

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$BTC HIT TP 3
CIHUYYY LUMAYAN BUAT BELI MIE AYAM

Fed Holds Interest Rates Steady, Gold Instead Strengthens

The Federal Reserve again kept interest rates at 3.50% to 3.75%. Inflation is still above the 2% target, but the U.S. economy is assessed to be growing solidly.

The decision was approved by a vote of 9 to 3. Hammack, Kashkari, and Logan opted for a 25-basis-point rate increase, indicating that hawkish pressure within the Fed remains quite strong.

Still, gold actually strengthened after the announcement. This reaction could suggest that the market is more relieved because the Fed did not truly raise rates, even though the chances of a tighter policy have not been completely eliminated.

The Fed also highlighted strong productivity, a labor market that remains resilient, and liquidity conditions in the banking sector that are still adequate.

For traders, the next focus is on further Fed comments, the movement of the U.S. dollar, and bond yields. Volatility could continue, so don’t rush to chase prices.

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#menjaditrader #gold #fomc #trading #xauusd $BTC

The Federal Reserve doesn’t just move interest rates, but also liquidity, the dollar, stocks, gold, crypto, and even the global economy.

As a trader, don’t just look at the candles. Understand who is pulling the strings.

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Bitcoin Faces Two Triggers of Major Volatility Tonight

Tonight, the market will see the release of Crude Oil Inventories, followed by the FOMC decision in the early hours.

U.S. oil stocks are projected to fall by 1.7 million barrels, after increasing by 2.01 million barrels in the previous week. If the actual result drops more than expected, energy demand could still be viewed as strong. However, rising oil prices could reignite inflation concerns, strengthening the DXY and yields, and then pressuring Bitcoin.

On the other hand, if oil inventories instead increase, the market may read it as demand starting to slow. Oil prices could weaken and the inflation pressure may ease. This scenario is more favorable for risk assets, especially if the DXY also declines.

But it’s important to understand that Crude Oil Inventories are different from the SPR. Changes in commercial stockpiles are also influenced by production, imports, exports, refinery activity, and seasonal factors. So a negative figure doesn’t always mean the economy is strong, and a positive figure doesn’t automatically mean the government will immediately add stimulus.

For the FOMC, the main expectation remains that interest rates will be kept unchanged. Still, the chance of a sudden rate hike is present. The biggest focus is not just the decision outcome, but also the statement by Fed Chair Kevin Warsh after the announcement.

The base case for Bitcoin is high volatility, with a correction risk first if Warsh comes across as hawkish and the DXY strengthens. Conversely, if rates are held alongside a more dovish tone, BTC has the potential to rebound and continue its rise.

Regarding BlackRock buying Bitcoin, it needs to be distinguished between the company’s own purchases and investor fund flows into the ETF. Money flowing into the ETF leads the manager to add BTC reserves, but that doesn’t mean BlackRock is buying using its own corporate funds.

For tonight, don’t rush to chase the first candle. Wait for the reaction in the DXY, bond yields, and confirmation of Bitcoin’s direction after the press conference concludes.

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#becomeatrader #bitcoin #fomc #crypto #trading $BTC

FOMC Can Surprise, Crypto Traders Must Be Ready for Volatility

This week’s FOMC is getting harder to predict. After the market previously focused more on the chances of rate cuts, Citadel instead sees a scenario where interest rates could unexpectedly rise.

This scenario may not happen. However, expectations that run counter to the consensus can cause the market to swing wildly before the official decision is announced.

If the Fed really does raise interest rates, the dollar could strengthen and global liquidity may tighten again. Conditions like this typically put pressure on risk assets, including Bitcoin and altcoins.

July through September is indeed entering scary hours. Volatility is high, sentiment can change quickly, and a single statement from the Fed can flip the market direction within minutes.

So the focus isn’t just guessing the FOMC outcome. What’s more important is managing risk, avoiding excessive leverage, and preparing invalidation levels before entering a position.

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#menjaditrader #bitcoin #crypto #fomc #Trading $BTC $XAU

USDIDR again tests the 18.085 resistance. If the breakout is confirmed, the 18.450 area could become the next target. The pressure on the rupiah needs to be watched closely.

#USDIDR #Rupiah #AnalisisTeknikal

IHSG begins to show potential bearish divergence on the 3D timeframe.

As long as support 5.760 holds, the chances are still 50:50. If it breaks, the area 5.149 needs to be watched.

Warning signal, not a certainty.

#IHSG #TechnicalAnalysis #TradingIndonesia

Whale Buys 7.1 Million ENA in One Go, Accumulation Signal Starting to Show?

A new wallet was spotted attracting around 7.1 million $ENA from Binance in less than 30 minutes. Its total value is estimated to reach US$600 thousand.

What makes this transaction interesting is that the wallet has almost no history of other activity. So far, the assets that have come in are only $ENA and all tokens are still being held.

Large withdrawals from an exchange usually indicate that the wallet owner does not plan to sell in the near term. Even so, one transaction is not enough to confirm that the price trend will immediately reverse upward.

The price $ENA is also still far below its 2024 peak level. This could be a reason why big players may start building positions when valuation is low and market sentiment isn’t too lively yet.

Traders need to monitor whether further accumulation appears from other wallets, an increase in buy volume, and the price’s ability to hold the support area. If a similar pattern continues, an opportunity for sentiment change could begin to form.

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#menjaditrader #ENA #CryptoIndonesia