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Ethereum price hit its projected breakdown target near $1,800 in early February. It even slipped to $1,740 before bouncing. Since then, ETH has rebounded almost 23%, giving traders hope that the worst may be over.

But price rebounds inside downtrends often look strong at first. The real question is whether this bounce is supported by strong buyers. Right now, charts, on-chain data, and technical metrics suggest that support remains weak. Several warning signs still point to downside risk.

The ETH Price Breakdown Worked, But the Rebound Lacks Real Strength

On February 5, Ethereum completed a major breakdown pattern on the daily chart, as predicted by BeInCrypto analysts. This pattern usually signals that sellers are taking control. The projected target was near $1,800. Ethereum price followed that path and dropped to $1,740 on February 6.

After hitting this zone, ETH rebounded about 23%. At first glance, this looks like strong dip buying as the February 6 price candle saw a large lower wick. But momentum tells a different story.

Between February 2 and February 8, the price made lower highs. At the same time, the Relative Strength Index (RSI), which tracks short-term momentum, moved higher.

Breakdown Target Hit: TradingView

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This creates a hidden bearish divergence, where momentum improves but price fails to follow.

In simple terms, price is struggling to rise, even though short-term momentum looks better. That usually means sellers are still active in the background. So while the breakdown target was reached, the rebound does not yet show deep conviction.

This weak follow-through sets the stage for the next risk.

Short-Term Bounce Is Slipping Into Another Bearish Setup

Because the rebound lacks strong follow-through, the next thing to watch is the structure of the move. On the 12-hour chart, Ethereum is forming a bearish pole and flag.

First, the price dropped sharply. Then it rebounded inside a rising channel. This is a classic continuation pattern in downtrends.

It often leads to another leg lower as volume confirms the risk. On-Balance Volume, which tracks real buying and selling activity, is staying weak. It is not rising aggressively, like the price. This means fewer real buyers are supporting the rebound. Additionally, the OBV metric itself is close to breaking down its own ascending trendline. If volume breaks down, this flag structure could fail.

Bearish ETH Price Pattern: TradingView

That would open the door to deeper losses, around 50% from the lower trendline levels. To understand whether buyers, who led the 23% rebound, can prevent that, we need to look on-chain.

Are Short-Term Traders Buying As Long-Term Holders Sell?

On-chain data shows that the recent rebound is being driven mainly by short-term traders, not long-term investors.

A key metric here is short-term Holder NUPL, which measures whether recent buyers are sitting in profit or loss.

In early February, as Ethereum dropped to $1,740, short-term holder NUPL fell to around -0.72, placing it firmly in the capitulation zone. This reflected heavy unrealized losses among recent buyers.

During the 23% rebound, however, NUPL recovered to about -0.47. That is an improvement of roughly 35% from the bottom. While it remains negative, the speed of this recovery shows that many short-term traders rushed in to buy the dip.

This pattern closely resembles past failed bottom formations.

STH NUPL: Glassnode

On March 10, 2025, NUPL also rebounded to around -0.45 while ETH traded near $1,865. At that time, many traders believed a bottom had formed. A more durable bottom only appeared on April 8, 2025, when NUPL dropped close to -0.80, roughly 75% deeper than the March level. That phase marked true seller exhaustion and preceded a sustained recovery. The price was around $1,470 at the time.

Today’s structure looks much closer to March 2025 than April 2025. Losses have eased too early, suggesting that panic has not fully cleared. At the same time, long-term holders remain cautious.

The 30-day rolling Hodler Net Position Change, which tracks investors holding ETH for more than 155 days, remains negative. On February 4, outflows stood near -10,681 ETH. By February 8, they had widened to around -19,399 ETH.

ETH HODLers: Glassnode

This represents an increase in net selling of roughly 82% in just four days. This signals weak conviction at current levels. So the rebound is being driven mainly by short-term traders chasing a bounce, while long-term investors continue reducing exposure.

Key Ethereum Price Levels Show Why the $1,000 Risk Is Still Alive

All technical and on-chain signals now point to a weak structure. Ethereum must reclaim key resistance to stay safe. The first resistance is near $2,150.

Holding above this would ease short-term pressure. The major invalidation level is $2,780.

Only above this would the bearish structure truly break. On the downside, risk remains heavy.

Key support levels are:

$1,990: short-term support

$1,750: Fibonacci support

$1,510: major retracement zone (close to the April 8, 2025 bottom)

$1,000: bear flag projection

\Ethereum Price Analysis: TradingView

A daily close below $1,990 would weaken the rebound. Losing $1,750 would expose the $1,500 ETH price zone. If the bearish flag fully breaks, the projected move points toward $1,000.

That would mean a drop of nearly 50% from current levels. Right now, Ethereum is still below major resistance.

Volume is weak. Long-term holders are selling. And Short-term traders dominate activity. Until these conditions change, the risk of a much deeper Ethereum price move remains real.

Meme coins are once again drawing trader attention as speculative capital rotates back into high-volatility setups. After weeks of choppy conditions, several meme-driven assets are beginning to show technical signs of stabilization and early reversals.

BeInCrypto has analysed three such meme coins that investors should watch in February week 2.

Pippin (PIPPIN)

PIPPIN is attempting a trend reversal after a sharp corrective leg, with price bouncing cleanly from the $0.1565 demand zone and forming short-term higher lows. Momentum is improving as the MACD histogram is forming a bullish crossover, suggesting selling pressure is fading, and buyers are stepping back in.

Price is currently trading around $0.2592, which remains the immediate level to reclaim. A strong daily close above $0.2671 would confirm continuation and open the path toward $0.3083, with a further extension toward $0.3729 if momentum and volume expand in favor of bulls.

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PIPPIN Price Analysis. Source: TradingView

This recovery structure stays intact as long as the price holds above $0.1861 on a daily closing basis. A breakdown and close below $0.1565 would invalidate the bullish reversal, flip momentum back bearish, and expose downside continuation, signaling the bounce was corrective rather than trend-changing.

Bone ShibaSwap (BONE)

BONE is noting a bounce after an extended downtrend, with price defending the $0.0482 swing low and reclaiming the 23.6% Fibonacci level at $0.0607. The structure hints at a potential short-term reversal as bullish candles step in, while CMF ticks up to -0.11, signaling declining but still cautious capital outflows.

Price is currently trading at $0.0685, testing the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement. A clean daily close above $0.0685 would open upside continuation toward $0.0747 (50% Fib), followed by a move to $0.0810 at the 0.618 level. A breach above $0.0810 would shift the market structure bullish and target $0.0899 next.

BONE Price Analysis. Source: TradingView

This recovery remains valid as long as the price holds above $0.0607 on a daily closing basis. A breakdown below this support would fully invalidate the bullish reversal, sending BONE to $0.0481.

Banana For Scale (BANANAS31)

BANANAS31 has rallied sharply over the past four days, trading near $0.0043 at the time of writing. The meme coin is pressing against the $0.0043 resistance, which aligns with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement. This level is critical for determining whether recent momentum can sustain further upside.

Historically, BANANAS31 has failed to clear this resistance, making the current attempt decisive. A successful breakout would confirm bullish continuation. The Money Flow Index indicates strong buying pressure, reinforcing upside potential. A move above $0.0047, the 50% Fibonacci level, could accelerate gains toward the $0.0051 target.

BANANAS31 Price Analysis. Source: TradingView

On the other hand, failure to break $0.0043 may trigger a pullback toward $0.0039. Losing the 23.6% Fibonacci support would weaken the structure. Under that scenario, BANANAS31 could slide to $0.0035, invalidating the bullish thesis and erasing the meme coin’s recent recovery gains, sending it back to early February’s price.

XRP nedávno utrpělo ostrý výprodej, který stáhl cenu blízko úrovně 1,00 USD, což je nejnižší bod za téměř 15 měsíců. Pokles otřásl důvěrou na trhu a vyvolal široké obavy mezi držiteli v krátkodobém horizontu.

XRP se však na poslední chvíli vyhnulo hlubšímu propadu. Klíčová otázka nyní zní, zda se tlak na pokles obnoví nebo stabilizuje.

Držitelé XRP vykazují smíšené signály

Velcí držitelé XRP se během poklesu vrátili k akumulaci. Peněženky, které drží mezi 100 miliony a 1 miliardou XRP, získaly více než 1,6 miliardy tokenů během minulého týdne. Při současných cenách tento nákup přesahuje 2,24 miliardy dolarů, což signalizuje obnovený zájem od vlivných účastníků trhu.

Over the past two years, the landscape for crypto derivatives has shifted dramatically. A significant contraction in the supply of ETF leveraged tokens has occurred across top-tier exchanges. Platforms that previously championed these products have initiated phased suspensions, halted subscriptions, or delisted leveraged pairs entirely throughout 2024 and 2025. However, the demand for leverage among traders has not vanished. It has simply been displaced.

In this environment of market retrenchment, Gate has taken a contrarian approach. Rather than withdrawing, Gate has doubled down, treating ETF leveraged tokens not as a niche add-on, but as a core product line. By prioritizing transparent mechanisms and a unified low-fee framework, Gate has transformed what was once a complex instrument into a scalable, user-friendly tactical tool.

Why Exchanges Are Leaving

In the context of crypto, ETFs generally refer to ETF Leveraged Tokens. These are tokenized instruments traded on the spot market that track perpetual futures positions, allowing users to gain leveraged exposure (e.g., 3x Long BTC) without managing margin or liquidation prices.

Despite their utility, these products are highly structured. Without robust risk controls and clear user education, they are susceptible to volatility decay in ranging markets. Consequently, major platforms have exited the space to minimize compliance risks and user disputes. For example, exchange no. 1. phased out leveraged token services in early 2024, eventually discontinuing support, and exchange no. 2. followed suit in late 2025, issuing batch delisting announcements for BTC and other major assets.

This industry wide reduction has created a vacuum. As comparable platforms shrink, product availability itself has become a scarce competitive advantage. Gate has stepped in to absorb this liquidity, offering a stable home for short-term leveraged trading demand.

Simplifying Leverage With Unified Fees

Gate’s ETF architecture is designed to map professional derivatives positions into a simple tokenized format. For the user, the experience mirrors spot trading, there is no need to monitor margin maintenance or fear sudden liquidation events.

A key differentiator is Gate’s approach to cost transparency. In derivatives trading, costs are often fragmented across funding rates, trading fees, and slippage. Gate consolidates these fragmented costs into a single, understandable metric known as the unified management fee. This flat 0.1% daily fee is entirely all-inclusive, covering everything from hedging costs and funding rates to potential trading friction.

By packaging costs at the product level, Gate shifts the complexity from the user to the platform. The user gets a predictable cost structure, while the platform leverages professional expertise to manage execution and hedging.

Transparency in Mechanics

The sustainability of leveraged tokens relies on explainability. Two critical variables define these products: the Net Asset Value (NAV) and Rebalancing Rules.

The sustainability of leveraged tokens relies on explainability. Unlike competitors that often operated these mechanisms as “black boxes,” Gate provides explicit parameter disclosures. This includes specific leverage fluctuation ranges where rebalancing is not triggered, which significantly reduces frictional costs in choppy markets.

For instance, Gate ensures position stability by avoiding rebalancing for 3x Long tokens as long as leverage stays between 2.25x and 4.125x, while the 3x Short variant maintains a range of 1.5x to 5.25x. Similarly, for 5x tokens, no adjustments are triggered unless the leverage moves outside the 3.5x to 7x boundary. These technical parameters are vital for professional traders as they minimize the “decay” often associated with these products during range-bound price action.

Scale by the Numbers

Gate’s ecosystem is expanding. According to Gate’s 2025 annual report, the “Scale Effect” of their ETF product line is evident in the platform’s ability to support 244 different ETF leveraged tokens throughout the year. This robust supply served a cumulative user base of over 200,000 traders, driving average daily trading volumes into the hundreds of millions of dollars. This growth is supported by continuous technical iterations, including the launch of multidimensional data dashboards, rebalancing history displays, and specialized educational modules designed to reduce the learning curve for new participants.

The platform’s success is not merely a result of being one of the last providers standing, but rather a reflection of its commitment to product depth. Gate continues to broaden its asset coverage, ensuring that users can access leveraged exposure across a diverse range of emerging and established tokens. Looking ahead, Gate plans to build on this momentum by introducing sophisticated new formats, such as portfolio ETFs and low-leverage inverse ETFs. By retaining technical complexity at the platform level while delivering operational certainty to the user, Gate is positioning itself to capture an even larger share of the short-term leveraged trading market.

Conclusion

The industry wide contraction of leveraged tokens was not a failure of the concept, but a failure of execution regarding transparency and education. Gate has succeeded where others retreated by systematizing the product.

By offering clear disclosures, a unified 0.1% daily fee, and a spot-like user experience, Gate has built a sustainable ecosystem that preserves the utility of leverage while mitigating its complexity. As the market matures, Gate’s ETF offering stands as a testament to the value of explainable, transparent financial engineering.

Disclaimer: Investing in the cryptocurrency market involves high risk. Users are advised to conduct independent research and fully understand the nature of the assets and products before making any investment decisions. Gate is not liable for any losses or damages resulting from such investment activities.

Executives from Bitpanda, Dune, and Libertex identify AI agents and demographic shifts as defining forces for 2026

More than fifteen years after the Bitcoin white paper sparked a revolution in how we think about money, the cryptocurrency industry is entering a period of rapid transformation. It now sits at the intersection of three powerful forces: co-option by incumbent financial institutions, the rise of AI agents, and the shifting demographics that come with mainstream adoption.

What started as a fringe, ideologically pure attempt to escape centralised financial control is now being embraced by the very institutions it was designed to disrupt. The idealistic manifesto published by the mysterious Satoshi Nakamoto, and the blockchain innovations that followed, is no longer confined to the margins. Crypto is quietly sliding into the plumbing of global finance. Crypto’s real-world use cases are no longer playing out in headlines, they’re being embedded quietly into the backend of global financial infrastructure.

Many would argue this is a sign of maturity, and perhaps inevitable. But this transition brings with it a new set of challenges alongside the opportunities.

That shift is forcing a rethink across the industry. The next phase of growth will not be driven by hype cycles, but by companies that understand how information is consumed and produced by both humans and AI systems, particularly autonomous agents whose transaction volumes may soon eclipse those of people. At the same time, crypto’s audience is expanding well beyond its early adopters, reshaping how distribution works. Take this as a case in point. What was once mocked by the Davos elite now dominates centre stage, generating daily headlines in once hostile TradFi broadsheets like the Financial Times.

This new paradigm was clearly articulated at BeInCrypto’s inaugural Executive Council, where senior leaders from Bitpanda, Dune, and Libertex came together for an extended discussion on the industry’s most urgent strategic challenges, and the opportunities emerging from the convergence of AI, blockchain infrastructure, and mainstream financial adoption.

The roundtable surfaced one finding that surprised even the participants: traditional performance marketing is becoming obsolete. Traffic to top websites has declined more than 11% over five years, according to SimilarWeb data, and AI agents are increasingly bypassing subscription models entirely — consuming content without paying for it.

Figure 1: Average monthly web traffic to the top 1,000 sites (Source: Similarweb via Axios) Key Takeaways

Crypto moves to the backend. The industry is shifting from hype-driven growth to infrastructure mode. “We don’t need to explain the concept anymore — it’s becoming invisible,” one participant noted.

AI agents are economic actors, not tools. Autonomous systems now consume, summarize, and act on content. Traditional monetization models — subscriptions, traffic-based advertising — face structural disruption.

Demographics are diversifying. Banks and traditional financial institutions are mediating crypto adoption, bringing older audiences who consume news through legacy media rather than crypto-native channels.

Volatility remains unsolved. While traditional markets have mature volatility management tools, crypto still lacks equivalent infrastructure at scale.

Trust still requires humans. Despite rapid AI adoption, authority, expertise, and social proof — not algorithms — remain the primary trust signals for users.

Detailed Findings

From Headlines to Backend Infrastructure

Crypto’s maturation is accelerating. TradFi, fintech, and crypto now operate on similar rails, competing for the same users with similar tools. The competitive boundaries that once separated these sectors have largely dissolved.

User acquisition has fragmented across referrals, partnerships, and LLM-powered search — a shift that renders traditional performance marketing increasingly ineffective. At the same time, token price appreciation is no longer a reliable revenue driver, forcing projects to reassess opaque or outdated business models.

“We’re entering a new era where success isn’t measured by token prices alone. Dune, as the leading onchain data platform, is seeing that shift firsthand. Blockchain teams are increasingly focusing on data points that directly reflect their utility and real-world impact.”— Alsie Liu, Full-stack Web3 Marketing Manager, Dune

The Social Era: Signals Over Opinions

Social platforms have become primary news sources, particularly among younger audiences. In the US, 54% of people now access news via social media, with over half of under-35s relying on these platforms as their main source — surpassing TV and traditional news websites for the first time.

Figure 2: Proportion using each as source of news in the US, 2013-2025 (Source: Reuters Institute)

The shift is not merely about platform preference — it reflects deeper changes in content expectations. Audiences increasingly demand signals and verifiable facts over opinion-heavy analysis. Personalization is now baseline, not premium.

The rise of social media-based news is not unique to the United States, but changes are happening faster there. The US is joining a “social-first club” that includes Brazil, many African countries, the Philippines, and Indonesia. Meanwhile, European countries and Japan show more resilience toward traditional news brands.

Figure 3: Proportion saying social media is their main source of news (Source: Reuters Institute)

“Boomers are coming to the game. They consume news the old-fashioned way… Boomers will go to the banks.”

— Vishal Sacheendran, VP Global Markets Strategy & Operations, Bitpanda

AI as Economic Actor

AI is no longer just a productivity tool. According to McKinsey’s 2025 survey, 88% of companies now use AI in at least one business function — but only 7% have deployed it enterprise-wide. This gap creates a significant first-mover advantage for organizations that scale quickly.

Figure 4: AI adoption and deployment phases, 2017-2025 (Source: McKinsey Global Survey)

At leading AI-native organizations, 60% of daily work is AI-assisted, delivering a 50% productivity boost. The structural challenge: AI agents can consume, summarize, and publish content autonomously, bypassing traditional monetization entirely. Platforms lose subscriptions and traffic-based ad revenue. No one has yet solved how to monetize agent-driven behavior.

“Success in the next era means creating content that serves both humans and AI agents. Companies that design for machine-readability alongside human engagement will be positioned at the forefront of how information flows.”— Alsie Liu, Full-stack Web3 Marketing Manager, Dune

Regulatory gray zones compound the challenge. Data center location, jurisdiction, and compliance accountability are now strategic considerations.

“There is hype coming from managers that we need to add AI everywhere. But we need governance while doing it.”— Dennis Alexander, CTO, Libertex

Trust in the AI Age

Despite rapid automation, trust formation remains distinctly human. The attention crisis is real:

In this attention-scarce environment, authority and social proof outperform algorithmic recommendations. Younger users follow community signals; older audiences rely on familiar platforms and brands.

“No evidence in their A/B tests that clients use AI for analysis; they use it for shortcuts.”

— Dennis Alexander, CTO, Libertex

Strategic Implications

The Executive Council findings point to three strategic imperatives for crypto media:

Optimize for AI consumption. Content strategies must account for non-human readers that summarize and redistribute information without traditional engagement metrics. Publishers who build AI-friendly infrastructure first will capture the distribution advantage.

Diversify audience channels. As banks and traditional institutions mediate crypto adoption, media platforms must meet users where they are — including legacy and local news channels. The audience is fragmenting; reach requires multichannel presence.

Prioritize trust signals. In a world of AI-generated content, editorial authority, expertise, and social proof become competitive differentiators. Human voices — with real accountability — will command premium attention.

The Bottom Line for Media Strategy

The era of performance marketing and platform dependence is ending. The future belongs to organizations that can:

Build direct audience relationships

Create AI-consumable content infrastructure

Establish human trust signals that algorithms can’t replicate

About the Executive Council

BeInCrypto’s Executive Council brings together internal leadership and external executives to identify blind spots, debate solutions, and challenge strategic assumptions. The January 2026 session included:

Vishal Sacheendran, VP Global Markets Strategy & Operations, Bitpanda

Alsie Liu, Full-stack Web3 Marketing Manager, Dune

Dennis Alexander, CTO, Libertex

Discussion was held under Chatham House-style principles. Insights are synthesized to reflect collective perspectives unless individually attributed with speaker approval.

Crypto analyst Alex Krüger says most tokens have failed by design, arguing that outdated regulation pushes projects to launch assets stripped of enforceable rights.

His comments coincide with a period of elevated token failures in the crypto market. Since 2021, over 13.4 million tokens have “died.”

Why So Many Altcoins Fail in Today’s Market

According to CoinGecko research, 53.2% of all cryptocurrencies listed on GeckoTerminal had failed as of the end of 2025. 11.6 million tokens collapsed in 2025, representing 86.3% of all failures recorded since 2021, signaling an unprecedented acceleration.

The number of crypto projects listed rose from about 428,000 in 2021 to 20.2 million by 2025. This surge was met with escalating failures: just 2,584 dead coins in 2021, rising to 213,075 in 2022, 245,049 in 2023, and 1.38 million in 2024. Yet, 2025’s collapse dwarfed all previous years.

Certain niches experienced even higher failure rates. Music and video tokens failed at rates close to 75%. Crypto analyst Krüger argued that outdated regulations and token structures fueled the crisis.

“​Most tokens ever created are worthless by design because of outdated regulations,” he wrote.

In a detailed post, Krüger argued that the SEC’s use of the Howey Test and enforcement-led oversight pushed crypto projects into a corner. For context, US regulators use the Howey Test to determine whether a transaction qualifies as an “investment contract” and therefore a security under federal securities laws.

A transaction is a security if it involves:

an investment of money,

in a common enterprise,

with an expectation of profit,

based on the efforts of others.

If all four are met, US securities laws apply. To avoid being classified as securities, teams systematically stripped tokens of all rights. The result, he said, was an asset class defined by speculation rather than ownership.

This design choice had far-reaching consequences. When token holders have no contractual rights, they also have no legal recourse. At the same time, founders face no enforceable fiduciary duties toward the people funding their projects. 

In practice, this created an accountability vacuum. Teams could control large treasuries with or abandon projects entirely, often without facing legal or financial consequences.

“​In any other market, a project offering zero rights and total treasury opacity wouldn’t raise a dime. In crypto, it was the only compliant way to launch. ​The result is a decade of tokens designed to soft rug,” he added.

Disillusioned by VC-backed utility tokens, retail traders turned to meme coins, which offered a transparent lack of utility. As Krüger highlighted, this trend increased speculation and intense market behaviors.

“And this only made the rot worse: memecoins are even more speculative and less transparent, accelerating a shift toward predatory PVP trading and zero-sum gambling,” he remarked.

Krüger believes the solution is a new generation of tokens governed by a stronger regulatory framework.

Kryptomarket přivítá tokeny v hodnotě více než 278 milionů dolarů ve druhém týdnu února 2025. Hlavní projekty, včetně Connex (CONX), Avalanche (AVAX) a Aptos (APT), uvolní významné nové dodávky tokenů.

Tyto odemykání by mohla zavést tržní volatilitu a ovlivnit krátkodobé cenové pohyby. Takže zde je přehled toho, na co si dát pozor.

1. Connex (CONX)

Datum odemčení: 15. února

Počet tokenů k odemčení: 1,32 milionu CONX

Uvolněná nabídka: 84,63 milionu CONX

Celková nabídka: 100 milionů CONX

Binance’s SAFU (Secure Asset Fund for Users) continues to draw attention after the exchange confirmed a fresh Bitcoin purchase.

The latest conversion brings the fund’s total holdings to 10,455 BTC, valued at roughly $734 million.

How the Binance SAFU Fund Acts as a Crypto Market Indicator

The latest accumulation is part of a broader plan to convert the entire $1 billion reserve into Bitcoin over a 30-day period. Could this offer clues about broader crypto market cycles?

“Binance SAFU Fund just bought another 4,225 $BTC ($299.6 million), bringing its total purchase to 10,455 $BTC ($734 million),” Lookonchain reported.

Binance later confirmed the transaction, citing 4225 BTC for the SAFU Fund, amounting to 300 million USD stablecoins.

The SAFU Fund, established in 2018, functions as an emergency insurance reserve designed to protect user assets in the event of hacks or operational failures.

Historically funded by roughly 10% of trading fees, the reserve was largely held in stablecoins to ensure liquidity and minimize volatility.

That approach changed in late January 2026, when Binance announced it would convert the entire reserve into Bitcoin through phased purchases to avoid market disruption.

Early batches included purchases of approximately 1,315 BTC and 3,600 BTC, followed by the latest 4,225 BTC acquisition.

The shift has been widely interpreted as a strong signal of long-term confidence in Bitcoin, particularly as the purchases add steady buying pressure amid uncertain market sentiment.

Historical Patterns Fuel “Market Indicator” Theory

Beyond the immediate impact on liquidity, some analysts argue that SAFU’s allocation changes have historically coincided with major turning points in crypto markets.

In March 2023, Binance converted approximately $1 billion in SAFU reserves into Bitcoin, Ethereum, and BNB.

Over the following year, Bitcoin rose roughly 250% while Ethereum climbed about 160%. The total cryptocurrency market capitalization expanded by an estimated $1.8 trillion.

Bitcoin and Ethereum Price Performances. Source: TradingView

“March 2023 – Binance announced conversion of $1 billion SAFU Fund into BTC, ETH, and BNB. – BTC pumped 250% in a year, ETH pumped 200% and Crypto MCap added $1.8 trillion. January 2026 – Binance has announced plans to convert $1 billion from the SAFU Fund into Bitcoin. We all know what’s coming next,” remarked crypto commentator Ash Crypto.

Chart showing correlation between SAFU fund conversions and market cycles (Source: AshCrypto)

Arkham data also shows that when the SAFU Fund’s total value exceeded $1.2 billion in March 2024—driven largely by rising asset prices—Bitcoin was simultaneously approaching a cycle high.

Binance SAFU Fund. Source: Arkham

This has led some traders to speculate that SAFU’s value and allocation shifts may reflect broader market extremes, rising near peaks and shifting into accumulation phases during downturns.

Confidence Signal or Coincidence?

Despite growing interest in the theory, correlation does not necessarily imply predictive power. Binance’s decisions may simply reflect prudent treasury management—buying Bitcoin at relatively lower prices to strengthen the long-term value of a reserve that may rarely need to be deployed.

Still, the transparency of SAFU’s on-chain transactions offers rare insight into how one of the industry’s largest exchanges manages risk and capital during volatile conditions.

Binance could continue its scheduled purchases through late February or early March 2026. However, whether SAFU accumulation proves to be a reliable indicator of cycle turning points or merely a reflection of them may only become clear in the months ahead.

Bitcoin (BTC) klesl o 22,5 % během posledního měsíce. Mince se na chvíli propadla na svou nejnižší úroveň za více než rok minulý týden, než se odrazila.

Oslabení vyostřilo debatu kolem historických cyklů, technických ukazatelů a on-chain dat, která by mohla signalizovat, kde nakonec dno současného medvědího trhu Bitcoinu bude. Jak roste nejistota, několik analytiků se nyní zaměřuje na klíčové cenové zóny pod 40 000 $.

Predikce dna Bitcoinu: Analytici poukazují na klíčové úrovně

Data BeInCrypto Markets ukázala, že největší kryptoměna klesla na 60 000 $ 6. února. Ceny se později zotavily, přičemž Bitcoin se obchodoval za 70 354 $ v době tisku, což je nárůst o 1,20 % za den.

Trhy s kryptoměnami mohou vykazovat první známky stabilizace po týdnech intenzivního výprodeje, podle nejnovější zprávy CoinShares o digitálních aktivech.

Investiční produkty zaznamenaly pokles odlivu z více než 1,7 miliardy dolarů zaznamenaných během dvou po sobě jdoucích týdnů na pouhých 187 milionů dolarů minulý týden.

Odlivy kryptoměn se zmenšily na 187 milionů dolarů, ukazuje zpráva CoinShares

Nejnovější údaje CoinShares ukazují, že celková aktiva pod správou klesla na 129,8 miliardy dolarů, což je nejnižší úroveň od března 2025. To odráží pokračující dopad nedávného poklesu cen.

Diskuse o kryptoměnách často vycházejí z ceny tokenů, tržní kapitalizace a krátkodobého výkonu. Ale pokud se tokeny z rovnice zcela odstraní, co vlastně zůstává cenné?

V rozhovoru s BeInCrypto řekl Ryan Chow, generální ředitel a spoluzakladatel Solv Protocol, že pokud by tokeny zítra přestaly mít význam, priority by se vrátily zpět k základům. Také sdílel 3 kryptoměnové protokoly, o kterých věří, že by i v roce 2026 stále jasně měly význam, i když by tokeny již neexistovaly.

Jsou ceny tokenů spolehlivým měřítkem hodnoty v kryptu?

Analýza společnosti Coinglass porovnávající data z perpetuálních decentralizovaných burz (perp DEX) vyvolala prudkou debatu a v tomto procesu zvýraznila rozdělení v sektoru kryptoderivátů.

Studie odhalila výrazné nesrovnalosti v objemech obchodování, otevřeném zájmu a likvidacích napříč Hyperliquid, Aster a Lighter. Uživatelé se ptají, co kvalifikuje jako skutečnou obchodní aktivitu na těchto platformách.

Data Coinglass vyvolává debatu o autentickém obchodování na perpetuálních DEXech

Coinglass čelí kritice poté, co zveřejnil srovnání perp DEXů, a zpochybnil, zda hlášené objemy obchodování v některých částech sektoru odrážejí skutečnou tržní aktivitu.

Obavy, že kvantové počítače by mohly jednoho dne prolomit Bitcoinovu kryptografii, se znovu objevily. Nová zpráva od CoinShares však tvrdí, že kvantová rizika zůstávají vzdálená, s tím, že pouze zlomek Bitcoinové nabídky může být potenciálně zranitelný.

Zpráva rámcuje kvantové počítače jako dlouhodobou inženýrskou výzvu. Tvrdí, že Bitcoin má dostatek času přizpůsobit se, než kvantové stroje dosáhnou kryptograficky relevantní úrovně.

Hodnocení kvantové hrozby pro Bitcoin

Ve zprávě s názvem „Kvantová zranitelnost v Bitcoinu: Říditelná rizika“ vedoucí výzkumu Bitcoinu společnosti CoinShares Christopher Bendiksen vysvětlil, že Bitcoin spoléhá na kryptografii na bázi eliptických křivek pro zabezpečení transakcí.

Obchodníci s Bitcoinem se připravují na makro těžký týden, kdy se očekávají čtyři americké ekonomické události, které formují sentiment na krypto trzích.

S Bitcoinem obchodovaným v volatilním rozmezí a makro narativy dominujícími psychologii trhu, obchodníci čím dál více považují ekonomické údaje za krátkodobé katalyzátory, které mohou spustit ostré pohyby v obou směrech.

Jaké americké ekonomické signály by měli sledovat investoři do Bitcoinu a kryptoměn tento týden?

Vystoupení guvernéra Federálního rezervního systému (Fed), klíčová data z trhu práce, týdenní žádosti o nezaměstnanost a lednové inflace by mohly ovlivnit očekávání kolem úrokových sazeb a likvidity – dvou nejvýznamnějších faktorů, které ovlivňují cenové cykly Bitcoinu.

Cena Bitcoinu se po poklesu blízko $60,000 6. února vzpamatovala téměř o 20 %. Tento pohyb oživil naděje na "nákup při poklesu" a podnítil diskusi o místním dnu. Zároveň ukazatele poptávky v USA začaly vykazovat známky oživení z nedávných minim.

Ale pod povrchem naznačují objemové signály, on-chain data a cenová struktura, že rally může být křehká. Několik varovných vzorců nyní připomíná nastavení, která předcházela velkým poklesům v tomto cyklu.

Medvědí vlajka ukazuje, že velké peníze nejsou plně angažovány.

Jedna z nejjasnějších varovných signálů pochází z Klingerova oscilátoru, indikátoru založeného na objemu, který sleduje velké peněžní toky.

Po pádu na téměř 2,0 bilionu dolarů minulý pátek se celková tržní kapitalizace kryptoměn zotavila na více než 2,3 bilionu dolarů. Investoři se zdají objevovat příležitosti a sentiment kupování na poklesu se znovu objevuje.

Klíčová otázka zní, zda je toto zotavení dostatečně silné na to, aby vytvořilo klasické V-tvarované oživení. Několik tržních signálů nabízí náhled.

Známky chování kupování na pokles po panickém výprodeji

Jedním z nejranějších a nejvýznamnějších signálů je obnovený příliv stablecoinů do centralizovaných burz. Tento trend se obrátil po měsících poklesu, i když prodejní tlak zůstává zvýšený.

Trend Research, investiční firma vedená Jackem Yi, zakladatelem Liquid Capital, prodala svou celou pozici v Ethereum (ETH) a údajně zamkla ztráty téměř 750 milionů dolarů.

Velký výprodej přichází, když Ethereum pokračuje v širším poklesu, přičemž altcoin klesl o více než 30 % za poslední měsíc. Výkon ceny znovu oživil debatu o tom, zda se ETH blíží tržnímu dnu.

Trend Research prodává Ethereum v době tržní volatility

BeInCrypto nedávno informovalo, že Trend Research začalo převádět Ethereum na Binance na začátku měsíce. On-chain analytická platforma Lookonchain potvrdila, že firma včera dokončila výprodej.

Spoluzakladatel Etherea Vitalik Buterin a analytik kryptoměn c-node znovu oživili debatu o skutečném účelu decentralizovaných financí (DeFi).

Společně dva odborníci z oboru vyzývají boomingový průmysl, aby přehodnotil své priority.

Odborníci se hádají o tom, co se počítá jako „skutečné“ DeFi

Základní problém, podle odborníků, je, že většina dnešního hype kolem DeFi je povrchní a slouží spekulativním zájmům spíše než aby posunula skutečnou DeFi infrastrukturu vpřed.

„Není důvod používat DeFi, pokud nemáte dlouhé pozice na kryptoměnách a chcete mít přístup k finančním službám při zachování vlastního úschovnictví,“ napsal c-node.

Globální trhy mohou vstoupit do nové fáze volatility poté, co Goldman Sachs varoval, že systémové fondy by mohly v nadcházejících týdnech prodat desítky miliard dolarů v akciích.

Tato vlna prodeje by mohla ovlivnit Bitcoin, zlato a stříbro, když se podmínky likvidity zhorší.

Goldman varuje, že prodeje CTA by se mohly zrychlit, jak se likvidita ztenčuje

Podle obchodní kanceláře Goldmana, fondy sledující trendy známé jako poradcové fondy pro obchodování s komoditami (CTA) již vyvolaly prodejní signály v S&P 500. Co víc, očekává se, že v blízké době zůstanou čistými prodejci, bez ohledu na to, zda se trhy stabilizují nebo nadále klesají.

Kyle Samani odstoupil z Multicoin Capital 5. února 2026, po téměř deseti letech jako spoluzakladatel. Dnes veřejně kritizuje Hyperliquid (HYPE), protože on-chain data ukazují, že Multicoin zakoupil více než 40 milionů dolarů v HYPE tokenech.

Blízké načasování podnítilo spekulace, že vnitřní konflikty ohledně investiční strategie vedly k odchodu jednoho z nejvýznamnějších obhájců Solany v kryptoprůmyslu.

Multicoin, Hyperliquid a Kyle Samani: Náhoda nebo střet?

Oznámení o odchodu Samaniho 5. února znamenalo významný posun pro Multicoin Capital, vedoucí sílu v institucionálních kryptoinvesticích.