Thucydides, an ancient Greek historian whose writings on war and power politics continue to influence modern diplomacy more than 2,000 years later. Thucydides, an Athenian general and historian who lived during the 5th century BCE, remains one of the most influential thinkers in international relations more than two millennia after his death. His masterpiece, History of the Peloponnesian War, chronicled the devastating conflict between Athens and Sparta, but what set his work apart was his methodology. Unlike contemporaries who relied on mythology or divine intervention to explain events, Thucydides focused on political strategy, human behavior, military power, and economics, creating one of the earliest examples of analytical history and political realism. At the heart of his analysis lay a deceptively simple observation: rising powers create fear in established powers, making conflict more likely. As Thucydides famously wrote, “It was the rise of Athens and the fear that this inspired in Sparta that made war inevitable.” This insight became the foundation for what Harvard professor Graham Allison later popularized as the “Thucydides Trap”, the dangerous dynamic that emerges when a rising global power challenges an existing dominant one, potentially pushing both toward confrontation even if neither actively seeks war. $AIGENSYN $PIEVERSE $CHIP
The Federal Reserve may need to do more than simply drop its easing bias after years of above-target inflation, according to Yardeni Research. “A simple removal of the easing bias may not be enough,” Yardeni said, adding that after five consecutive years of inflation above the Fed’s 2% objective, policymakers may have to signal a willingness to raise rates again. Headline and core CPI show inflation has cooled sharply from its 2022 peak, but the disinflation process has stalled well above the pre-pandemic norm, per a Yardeni chart shared by Neil Sethi. Headline CPI was running at 3.8% year over year in April, while core CPI was up 2.8%, leaving both measures well above the Fed’s target zone, as the war in the Middle East sent energy prices soaring. #Fed #cpi #Inflation #USPPISurge $RIVER $SIREN $SKYAI
U.S. import, export prices jump more than expected in April: U.S. export prices increased 3.3% M/M in April, outpacing the +1.1% consensus and the 1.5% increase (revised from +1.6%) in March, according to data released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics on Thursday. Higher prices for fuel imports and nonfuel imports drove the advance last month.
Import prices, meanwhile, rose 1.9% M/M in April vs. +1.0% consensus and +0.9% prior (revised from +0.8%).
Notably, import prices for fuels and lubricants surged 16.3% in April following an advance of 10.0% in March, as the war in the Middle East sent energy prices soaring. That's the largest monthly advance since the index rose 17.8% in March 2022.
Prices for nonfuel imports rose a mere 0.8% in April after March's 0.2% gain.
On a Y/Y basis, prices for U.S. imports jumped 4.2% in April, marking the largest advance since the index increased 4.2% for the year ended October 2022, the BLS said. #TrumpVisitsChina #PredictionMarketRisingCompetition $AIGENSYN $AIO $SAPIEN
Ropa klesá, ale stále nad 100 USD, protože OPEC snižuje globální poptávkovou prognózu pro rok 2026: Futures na surovou ropu ve středu klesly poté, co OPEC snížil očekávání růstu poptávky po ropě pro tento rok, protože téměř uzavření Hormuzského průlivu přinutilo producenty na Blízkém východě snížit těžbu. #TrumpVisitsChina #BitcoinBelow79K #USPPISurge #oil $SIREN $LAB $BILL
Yesterday, Bitcoin ETF Saw A Net Outflow Of $630.4 Million, While Ethereum ETF Saw A Net Outflow Of $36.3 Million. May 14th, According To Farside Investors Data, The Bitcoin ETF Saw A Net Outflow Of $630.4 Million Yesterday, While The Ethereum ETF Saw A Net Outflow Of $36.3 Million.
Warsh Officially Takes Over as Fed Chair as U.S. Inflation Heats Up Again:
Key Headlines 1. U.S. Senate approves Kevin Warsh as Federal Reserve Chair 2. U.S. jet fuel exports hit a record high to fill overseas supply shortages 3. EIA says oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz plunged nearly 30% last quarter 4. Bank of Canada remains alert to rapidly changing inflation dynamics 5. U.S. PPI records its largest increase since 2022, driven by rising energy costs“ 6. Fed whisperer” discusses bill to reform the Fed’s mandate: new proposal would focus solely on fighting inflation 7. Collins: The Fed may need to raise interest rates to curb inflation. #TrumpVisitsChina #USPPISurge #Fed #MarketSentimentToday #BitcoinBelow79K $AIN $XNY $TRUTH
U.S. Misery Index climbs to 3-year high as inflation and unemployment rise:
The U.S. Misery Index - a closely watched measure combining annual inflation and the unemployment rate - climbed again in April, marking its fourth straight monthly increase and reaching the highest level seen in three years.
The rise reflects mounting pressure on consumers as elevated prices and a softening labor market continue to weigh on household finances.
The index is calculated by adding the year-over-year Consumer Price Index reading to the national unemployment rate, offering a broad snapshot of economic discomfort facing everyday Americans.
While inflation has eased significantly from the peaks reached in 2022, price growth remains above the Federal Reserve’s long-term target, keeping everyday costs elevated across categories such as housing, food, insurance, and services.
At the same time, unemployment has remained elevated in recent months, signaling slower hiring momentum and a more cautious corporate environment.
The combination of sticky inflation and weakening labor conditions has renewed concerns that consumers could face increasing financial strain in the months ahead, even as broader economic growth remains relatively resilient compared with earlier recession forecasts.
Here's the full list of business executives invited to go with Trump to China: President Donald Trump is set to travel to China this week for a highly anticipated summit with President and has invited CEOs of some of the biggest U.S. companies to join his trip.
The CEOs include Tesla's (TSLA) Elon Musk, Apple's (AAPL) Tim Cook, BlackRock's (BLK) Larry Fink and Boeing's (BA) Kelly Ortberg, according to multiple media reports.
Other invited executives are Meta (META) President Dina Powell McCormick, Micron Technology's (MU) Sanjay Mehrotra, Qualcomm's (QCOM) Cristiano Amon, GE Aerospace's (GE) Larry Culp, Blackstone's (BX) Stephen Schwarzman, Citigroup's (C) Jane Fraser, Goldman Sachs' (GS) David Solomon, Coherent's (COHR) Jim Anderson, Illumina's (ILMN) Jacob Thaysen, Mastercard's (MA) Michael Miebach, Visa's (V) Ryan McInerney and Cargill's Brian Sikes.
Cisco (CSCO) CEO Chuck Robbins was invited, but won't join the trip due to the company's earnings schedule.
Notably, Nvidia (NVDA) CEO Jensen Huang was not invited. This is because the White House is focusing more on agriculture and commercial aviation matters, such as Boeing (BA) orders, for the trip, a source told Reuters.
Trump's China visit, the first by a U.S. president since 2017, will be closely watched.
"I expect a tactical truce — an extension of last year's rare-earth elements agreement, some additional trade commitments, possibly new agreements related to U.S. exports of agricultural products and/or energy, and a structure for ongoing communication and coordination on trade and finance issues," said SA analyst Agar Capital.
Fed rate hike odds climb to nearly 50/50 by spring of 2027:
Market participants are increasingly betting that the Federal Reserve may need to tighten monetary policy again over the next year, even as expectations for near-term changes remain limited. According to CME’s FedWatch Tool, markets currently expect the Fed to keep its benchmark interest rate within the 3.50% to 3.75% range through much of 2026. Probabilities tied to the June, July, and September 2026 meetings overwhelmingly favor the current policy band, signaling investors believe policymakers are still taking a cautious approach as they monitor inflation and broader economic conditions. Further out, however, expectations begin to shift. By the Federal Reserve’s April 2027 meeting, markets are implying nearly even odds of rates moving into the 3.75% to 4.00% range, highlighting growing concerns that inflation pressures could remain persistent or potentially reaccelerate. The evolving market outlook suggests traders are becoming less certain that the next major policy move will be a rate cut. Instead, investors increasingly see a scenario where resilient economic growth, firm labor market conditions, and stubborn inflation could push Federal Reserve officials toward another round of tightening later in the cycle. #FedRateCut #Fed #TrumpToVisitChinaFromMay13To15 #BlackRockPlansMoneyMarketFundsforStablecoinUsers #RateCutExpectations $BILL $LAB $SUI
Trump administration proposes easier employer access to IVF benefits:
The Trump administration said Sunday it is advancing efforts to broaden access to fertility benefits, unveiling a proposed rule designed to make it easier for employers to provide IVF and other reproductive health benefits.
The proposal addresses employers’ "sparse coverage of fertility-related treatments for the American worker and increases benefit options by easing statutory and regulatory burdens to make IVF and other fertility treatments more affordable." Though most workers of reproductive age receive healthcare coverage through their jobs, the majority do not have robust fertility coverage, the Departments of Labor, Health and Human Services, and Treasury said.
The proposed rule would establish a new category of limited excepted benefits. Excepted benefits are generally exempt from the market reforms under the Affordable Care Act and certain other federal health care coverage laws. This new category would apply limiting principles similar to those already in place for other limited excepted benefits, the statement said.
“The decline in birth rates is a serious challenge for our nation,” said HHS Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. “Under President Trump’s leadership, this rule expands access to fertility care and gives more Americans a real path to starting and growing their families."
The proposed rule sets a few main requirements for the benefits:
Substantially all of the benefits must be for diagnosis, mitigation, or treatment of infertility or related reproductive health conditions. Benefits are capped at a combined lifetime maximum of up to $120,000 for the participant and their beneficiaries, indexed for inflation for plan years starting after 2028. Employers must provide a notice that clearly describes the coverage and meets other specified requirements. $ALCH $FOLKS $VVV #TrumpToVisitChinaFromMay13To15 #CLARITYActHearingSetforMay14 #BlackRockPlansMoneyMarketFundsforStablecoinUsers #GrayscaleCardanoETF
Crude oil futures gained Sunday after President Trump rejected Iran's latest response to his proposal to end the Middle East as "totally unacceptable," while the Strait of Hormuz remains mostly closed.
$ZEC is sitting right on a major liquidation cluster near $600.
Here’s what stands out:
📉 Long/Short Ratio: 0.649 → Market still heavily leaning short → Perfect conditions for a squeeze if buyers step in
🔥 Heatmap shows: • Massive liquidity stacked below $595 • Bigger short liquidation zones sitting around $620-$640 • Price currently compressing near support
🎯 SNIPER PLAN:
🟢 LONG ENTRY: $598 - $602 zone
🎯 TARGETS: • $612 • $625 • $640 liquidity sweep
🛑 STOP LOSS: Below $592
⚠️ If $595 breaks with volume: Expect a fast flush toward $585 liquidity.
Right now this looks like a classic market maker trap. Crowd is shorting weakness while liquidity sits higher.