BlockBeats report, June 29: According to the latest research published by the Bank for International Settlements (BIS), AI is expected to break the traditional pattern of technology revolutions that only boost labor productivity, and instead alter the long-term path of economic growth by enhancing knowledge-creation capabilities.

Research suggests that in the future, AI may evolve into four scenarios, including maintaining the status quo, limited improvements in productivity, demand bottlenecks, and transformative AI. Among these, if AI can continuously improve its own capabilities, both the economic growth rate and the natural interest rate are expected to be significantly higher than historical levels.

However, AI development may not accelerate indefinitely. As automation continues to replace labor, the share of labor income may decline, making it difficult for consumption demand to keep pace with continually expanding productive capacity. If firms believe that future market demand will be insufficient, they may reduce their sustained investment in AI innovation and automation, causing technological progress to be constrained by demand rather than by technology itself.

BIS believes that, under this “demand bottleneck” scenario, insufficient terminal demand will become the main constraint limiting long-term economic growth, while the long-term impact of AI will still depend on multiple factors, such as technological breakthroughs, income distribution, and the evolution of demand.