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GEMINI
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The
#Bitcoin
Fear and Greed Index has moved from Extreme Fear to Fear 👀
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BTC
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As an on chain analyst, I see these headlines every day, but so called “accumulation” often isn’t new demand. In many cases it’s just wallet reshuffling, where large entities move coins between addresses for internal reasons without changing real ownership. When comparing >100K #BTC entities with the 100-1K BTC cohort, the strong negative correlation, roughly 300K BTC leaving large entities and about 270K BTC entering sharks, clearly points to redistribution, not genuine accumulation.
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Still Extreme Fear 👀
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Profit taking from #Bitcoin’s long term holders is increasing as price pushes higher, with the last 30 days showing one of the largest distribution spikes in the past five years, a pattern that has historically appeared near macro cycle tops rather than bottoms and usually reflects experienced investors selling into strength, which does not guarantee an immediate reversal but often limits upside and increases the risk of volatility or pullbacks unless strong new demand enters the market.
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Liquidations surged across the crypto market in the last 24 hours, impacting 124,770 traders and pushing total losses to $404.89 million. The largest single liquidation was recorded on Hyperliquid, where a #HYPEUSD position worth $11.08 million was closed.
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The current behavior of #Bitcoin suggests that the traditional four year cycle may already be behind us. When viewed through the lens of past cycles, the usual sequence does not fully align with what we are seeing now. Increased institutional influence, evolving liquidity conditions and global economic factors are playing a much larger role. As a result, the classic cycle theory alone may no longer be enough to explain Bitcoin’s price movements.
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