The crypto market is bracing for heightened volatility today as two major catalysts converge: the expiry of billions of dollars in crypto options and the release of key U.S. inflation data. With sentiment already fragile, traders are preparing for sharp price swings across bitcoin, ether, XRP and solana.
The Crypto Fear & Greed Index has dropped to 5, signaling extreme fear as investors weigh institutional selling, ETF outflows, macro uncertainty and declining derivatives activity.
$2.5 Billion in Bitcoin Options Set to Expire
Bitcoin remains under pressure near the $65,000 level amid broader bearish conditions. Tech stock weakness, shifting expectations around Federal Reserve rate cuts, and large-scale liquidations have added to downside risks.
Today, nearly 38,000 BTC options contracts worth approximately $2.5 billion are expiring on the Deribit exchange. The current put-call ratio of 0.71 suggests relatively neutral positioning, though uncertainty remains high.
The so-called “max pain” level — the price at which the largest number of options expire worthless — stands at $74,000, significantly above the current market price. Meanwhile, traders appear to be defending the $66,000 level, though put volumes remain elevated.
On-chain data also signals caution. Analysts point to fading conviction and signs of capitulation among investors, with recent realized losses ranking among the largest in bitcoin’s history.
$400 Million in ETH Options Expiry
Ether is also facing a major options expiry event, with more than 210,000 contracts worth roughly $407 million set to expire.
The put-call ratio stands at 0.80, while the max pain price is around $2,100. Despite whale selling and institutional outflows, traders appear to be attempting to stabilize prices near the $1,950 level.
Implied volatility has declined slightly ahead of expiry, though downside hedging activity has increased in recent sessions.
XRP and SOL Under Pressure
Smaller but still significant expiries are also impacting XRP and solana.
Over 3,000 XRP options worth around $4.3 million are expiring, with a put-call ratio of 0.92. XRP has slipped to roughly $1.35, and traders are watching key support levels between $1.30 and $1.40.
Meanwhile, solana options totaling over $8 million are expiring, carrying a bearish put-call ratio above 1.0. SOL has seen declining trading volumes and remains vulnerable to further volatility.
U.S. CPI Inflation Data Adds Macro Risk
In addition to derivatives expiry, traders are closely watching the release of U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) data later today. A hotter-than-expected inflation reading could delay Federal Reserve rate cuts, potentially triggering further declines in risk assets, including crypto.
However, several major Wall Street institutions expect inflation to cool modestly. Forecasts suggest headline CPI could ease to around 2.5%, with core inflation also moderating.
A softer inflation print may provide relief and open the door to a short-term rebound in digital assets.
Is the Bottom Near?
Bitcoin’s realized price , often associated with long-term market bottoms , currently sits near $55,000. Historically, BTC has traded 24–30% below this level before stabilizing in prior cycles. At present, bitcoin remains roughly 18% above that threshold, suggesting that further downside cannot be ruled out.
With billions in options expiring and macro data looming, the market is on edge. Whether today brings stabilization or deeper capitulation will likely depend on how both derivatives positioning and inflation data unfold in the coming hours.
