Bitcoin continued to trade in a narrow range below the $70,000 mark on Tuesday as markets positioned cautiously ahead of Wednesday’s closely watched U.S. employment report, which could shape expectations around interest rates and broader risk sentiment.
Crypto prices briefly dipped alongside U.S. equities at the market open but recovered quickly, following a pattern seen repeatedly in recent sessions. By mid-morning, bitcoin was hovering near $69,200, little changed over the past 24 hours.
Altcoins Lag as Volumes Stay Light
Major altcoins underperformed bitcoin during the session. Ether fell around 1.8%, while XRP and Solana also posted modest declines.
Despite the recent pullback being the sharpest since the 2024 bitcoin halving, analysts note that spot trading volumes remain low, suggesting retail investors have largely stepped aside rather than rushed to sell. According to market data provider Kaiko, recent price moves have been driven primarily by leveraged derivatives trading rather than organic spot demand.
Kaiko research analyst Laurens Fraussen said the market is approaching key technical support levels that could determine whether bitcoin’s long-term four-year cycle structure remains intact.
Derivatives, Not Spot Demand, Driving Volatility
Trading firm Wintermute expects bitcoin to remain range-bound in the near term as the market continues to search for price direction. The firm noted that thin spot liquidity has made prices more sensitive to crowded leveraged positions.
Wintermute pointed to last Friday’s rebound as a short squeeze in perpetual futures, adding that the return of volatility surprised traders after a prolonged period of complacency.
U.S. Jobs Report in Focus
Market attention is now firmly on Wednesday’s release of the January U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls report, delayed from last week due to a brief federal government shutdown. Economists expect 70,000 jobs to have been added in January, up from 50,000 in December, with the unemployment rate holding steady at 4.4%.
However, expectations have been clouded by comments from former Trump administration officials. White House trade counselor Peter Navarro said markets should brace for significantly weaker-than-expected data, echoing earlier remarks from economic adviser Kevin Hassett, who urged investors not to overreact if the report disappoints.
Bond markets appear to have taken note, with the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield slipping to 4.14%. While lower yields and easier monetary policy are typically supportive for assets like bitcoin, this cycle has defied expectations, with bitcoin falling sharply even as the Federal Reserve has cut rates by 75 basis points in recent months.
Waiting for a Catalyst
With spot participation muted and derivatives driving short-term price action, bitcoin remains stuck in consolidation mode. Traders are increasingly looking to macro data , starting with Wednesday’s jobs report , as the next potential catalyst to break the current range.
