The Market Updates

GOLD HAS ENTERED THE SAME ZONE WHERE EVERY MAJOR BULL RUN HAS HISTORICALLY ENDED.

Last month, Gold just hit a new cycle high near $5,600, and is still up +427% in this 2016 → 2026 run.

Now zoom out on what this chart is really showing:

1) Gold moves in decade long super runs

1970 → 1980: +2,403%
2001 → 2011: +655%
2016 → 2026: +427% (so far)

Different decades. Same pattern: gold doesn’t trend up forever. It tends to run hard for 9-10 years, then cool off for years and sometime decades.

BUT WHAT USUALLY ENDS A GOLD SUPER RUN?

It’s usually a mix of:

- Inflation finally cooling
- Real rates moving up
- The Fed getting tighter for longer
- The dollar stabilizing
- Tisk appetite coming back

That’s why gold peaks often show up around major policy shifts.

When gold topped in 1980, it wasn’t the end of markets. It was the start of a long rotation: gold cooled off, stocks entered a long uptrend that lasted for 20 years.

When gold topped again in 2011, we saw a similar shift: gold went sideways/down for years, stocks went into a long bull trend through the 2010s and beyond.

So the historical pattern looks like this:

Gold super run ends → capital rotates back into growth assets → equities get a long runway.

Currently gold recently pushing to a new high area ($5.6k) after a strong multi year climb. That doesn’t confirm a top by itself.

But it does tell you something important: We are no longer early in this move.

THE BIG DIFFERENCE THIS TIME: In 1980, there was no crypto. In 2011, Bitcoin was still tiny and ignored. In 2026, crypto is a real market with: institutional participation, ETFs and big platforms, public companies holding BTC, a much bigger investor base than any prior cycle.

So if the classic post gold rotation happens again…

This time it may not be: Gold → Stocks only

It could be: Gold → Stocks + Bitcoin + high beta crypto

Because crypto is now part of the risk-on world.

Gold has a history of 10 year super trends, When those trends mature, stocks often get a long runway.

This cycle is now in the same late stage decade window. And crypto is the new player that could absorb part of the next rotation.

Labor demand is now weaker than levels seen during the 2001 recession.

US job openings just dropped to 6.5 million, falling 386,000 in December alone, the lowest level since September 2020 while over the last 2 months, openings have collapsed by 907,000.

From the March 2022 peak, job openings are now down 5.6 million, showing how fast labor demand has cooled.

Openings are now sitting below pre pandemic levels seen in 2018–2019.

This is not a good labor market anymore. It is weakening quickly. The vacancy to unemployed ratio has fallen to 0.87. That means there are fewer than 1 job available per unemployed worker.

This ratio is now:
• Below the pre pandemic high of 1.24
• Near 2021 stress levels
• Even weaker than readings seen during the 2001 recession

Challenger layoff data confirms the same trend. US employers announced 108,435 job cuts in January.

That is:
• +118% higher YOY
• +205% higher MOM
• The highest January layoff total since 2009 recession

Layoffs are no longer concentrated in one sector. They are spreading. Transportation led cuts with over 31,000 layoffs. Technology followed with 22,000.

Healthcare announced 17,000, one of the most concerning signals since healthcare was the last strong hiring pillar.

Even more worrying is that companies are not planning to replace these jobs. Hiring plans announced in January were just 5,306, the lowest January hiring total on record going back to 2009 tracking.

So companies are doing two things at once: Cutting more jobs, Planning fewer hires.

JOLTS data shows hiring rates are flat. Quit rates are stuck near 2.0%, meaning workers are not confident enough to leave jobs voluntarily. When quits fall while openings fall, it shows workers are defensive and firms are cautious.

This creates a frozen labor market. Low hiring. Low mobility. Rising layoff risk.

Putting all the data together:

• Job openings → falling sharply
• Vacancy ratio → below recession thresholds
• Layoffs → surging to post-GFC levels
• Hiring plans → record lows
• Quit rates → weak

The labor market has moved from cooling → contracting.

If this trend continues, it increases pressure on the Federal Reserve to ease faster.

But historically, the first phase of labor deterioration is risk off for markets. Only later does liquidity support arrive. For now, the signal is simple:

US labor market weakness is accelerating and recession risks are rising.