CryptoQuant Quicktake

The Altcoin sector continues to be in significant difficulty, with around 40% of Altcoins currently trading very close to their all time low.
XRP has not been spared by this correction even though it remains far from its lowest valuations.
Nevertheless XRP still shows a -70% since the $2.45 of July 2025.
Despite this strong correction some are still choosing to position short on XRP and notably on Binance.
This pessimism which now forms a consensus can be read in the funding rates on Binance which are reaching an extreme threshold of negativity.
Here, funding rates are aggregated over a 30 day period in order to better capture the prevailing sentiment among derivatives traders.
On XRP, funding rates have maintained a bearish bias since the start of the year
When such a strong consensus forms, especially after a correction on the order of 70%, it is often a sign that a potential reversal may be developing over the medium term.
This notably happened in April 2025, when XRP reached $1.25, before a bullish recovery eventually triggered a rally that led to a 126% advance.
Written by Darkfost

Even though the market feels relatively quiet, Binance's monthly futures trading volume has climbed to $1.6 trillion, its highest level so far this year.
That might seem unexpected. Bitcoin is still trading in the mid-$60,000 range, sentiment remains cautious, and many traders continue to describe the market as bearish. Europe is also adjusting to MiCA regulations, while the summer holiday season usually brings slower trading activity.
Even so, derivatives trading on Binance hasn't lost momentum. The jump in futures volume suggests that despite all factors, traders are still actively taking positions on the Binance futures market.
Written by maartunn

Data from CryptoQuant shows that the $BTC MVRV Ratio has fallen to around 1.1, moving quite close to the 1.0 level — an area that has appeared during periods when the market was relatively undervalued compared with much of the cycle.
This shows that holders’ unrealized profits have narrowed significantly. The notable point is that MVRV has not yet fallen deeply below 1.0, so it is still too early to say that the market has entered a full capitulation phase or formed its final bottom.
For $BTC, valuation is becoming more attractive than before, but the market still needs more time to confirm whether the current area can develop into a sustainable accumulation zone.
Written by Rei Researcher

XRP withdrawal transactions regained a clear lead on Binance on July 10, accounting for 53.3% of the exchange’s seven-day transaction mix, compared with 46.6% for deposit transactions.
The current gap of 6.7 percentage points shows that Binance users are completing noticeably more withdrawal transactions than deposits.
The latest withdrawal reading is among the highest observed in recent months, sitting just below the 53.7% recorded on June 22 and the 53.4% seen on April 10. Meanwhile, Binance’s deposit share increased from 46.25% on June 22 to 46.6%, returning to approximately the same level registered on April 10. This makes the current distribution slightly more balanced than the June peak, although withdrawals remain firmly dominant.
The widening gap in favor of withdrawals suggests that Binance users are increasingly moving XRP into self-custody or longer-term holding positions rather than depositing it for immediate trading.
This pattern can reduce the amount of XRP readily available for sale on Binance.
However, the indicator measures the number of transactions rather than the volume of XRP transferred, so it cannot independently confirm a major supply reduction or determine the next price direction.
Written by Amr Taha

Buyers are regaining strength on the Coinbase side — but the regime hasn't flipped yet.
The Coinbase Premium Index for both BTC and ETH remains in negative territory, but both have bounced off their local lows. On top of that, both metrics managed to reclaim their SMA14. This is what's behind Bitcoin's move from 58K to 64K, and Ethereum's rally from $1,500 to $1,750.
Once again, U.S. whale activity is proving to be the leading data point for trend direction. Short-, medium-, and long-term regime shifts can all be read through this metric.
For a sustained, momentum-driven uptrend, we need CPI to gain strength in positive territory for both BTC and ETH. The current picture is a catalyst for a short-term bounce — but for a real long-term regime change, this metric needs to break above zero.
Written by burakkesmeci

Total USDT on centralized exchanges ended July 8 at $53.06B, down $1.2B week-over-week and $1.05B over thirty days. The headline conceals a structural story. ERC-20 holds 92.9% of all exchange-resident USDT at $49.26B and is essentially flat over the month, while TRC-20 has bled 28.8% of its balance, falling from $5.32B to $3.79B. That chain dynamic explains almost the entire thirty-day drawdown in dry powder.
Binance anchors the system. It holds $40.80B of USDT across both chains, 76.9% of the CEX complex, and its ERC-20 balance of $39.2B has barely moved in thirty days. Outside Binance, OKX and Bybit, almost no venue carries material inventory. This concentration means the marginal price-setting venue for crypto is structurally long dollars, and that one balance sheet determines whether spot bids absorb sell pressure.
The Net Flow Signal confirms distribution is broad. Ten of fourteen exchange-chain pairs sit in mild distribution, three in mild accumulation, and Binance TRC-20 is flagged strong distribution with a thirty-day outflow of $1.35B. Per-exchange netflow over the past seven days is minus $1.43B, with ten of the last fourteen daily readings negative. July 7 alone was minus $337M.
The whale skew makes this bleed worth watching. TRC-20 whale share of inflows runs 42-96% across venues, while ERC-20 inflows are retail-dominated, with whale participation under 1% at Binance, OKX, Bybit and Coinbase. Large holders pull dollars off Tron-routed venues while retail deposits via Ethereum rails. The divergence signals smart-money de-risking, not panic, but removes buy-side liquidity from venues that historically absorb whale BTC distributions.
The counter-signal is July 7 Binance TRC-20: plus $797.7M single-day net inflow at z-score 3.15. Statistically extreme, it partially reverses the prior week outflow streak but does not break the thirty-day regime. Until Tether issues fresh supply or ERC-20 expands, dry powder remains slow attrition, not active rebuilding.
Written by Crazzyblockk

Bitcoin’s total demand rebounded from approximately -650,000 BTC in June, but much of the recovery was driven by derivatives demand, while the improvement in spot demand remained limited.
In other words, the rebound was less a result of strong new buying pressure and more a temporary easing of extreme demand contraction and selling pressure.
Total demand has now reversed lower again to -120,000 BTC without reclaiming the zero line. Historically, declines in total demand have preceded price corrections.
If Bitcoin fails to break through key resistance, $67K while spot demand remains weak, selling pressure could intensify again, compounded by long liquidations.
Written by ScenarioX

The estimated leverage ratio in Ethereum futures on Binance has declined significantly since the beginning of the year, falling from 0.99 to 0.62, a decrease of approximately 37.4%. This decline reflects a clear shift in trader behavior, with reduced reliance on highly leveraged positions compared to the early months of the year.
The drop suggests that the Ethereum derivatives market on Binance has become more conservative in recent months, as traders appear to be reducing their risk exposure and scaling back the use of high leverage. This behavior may also indicate a wait-and-see approach ahead of new market catalysts, whether related to Ethereum's price movements or broader macroeconomic and regulatory developments affecting digital asset markets.
Although the decline in leverage may appear to signal weaker speculative activity, it also has a positive implication. Lower leverage reduces the likelihood of large-scale liquidations during periods of heightened volatility, contributing to a healthier and more resilient market structure. As a result, the market becomes less dependent on excessive leverage, helping to mitigate systemic risk and improve overall market stability.
Written by Arab Chain

XRP Investor Flows Diverge as Upbit Hits 29.7%, Coinbase Withdrawals Dominate, and Binance Holds Near 13%
Between June 30 and July 10, XRP investors displayed notably different wallet-flow patterns across major exchanges.
Upbit users leaned more toward deposit-side activity, while Coinbase and Crypto.com users saw a growing dominance of withdrawals. Binance users, on the other hand, showed only slight changes during this time.
On Upbit, XRP Net Wallet Flow Dominance rose from 21% to 29.7%, an increase of 8.7 percentage points.
Coinbase saw the strongest shift toward withdrawal-side dominance, with its reading falling from 19% to 1.8%, a decline of 17.2 percentage points.
Binance remained comparatively stable, with its dominance rising only slightly from 12% to around 13%.
This one-percentage-point increase suggests a limited shift toward deposits, far smaller than the change seen on Upbit.
Crypto.com also moved toward withdrawal-side dominance, falling from 7% to 4%.
Overall, the data shows a clear divergence in XRP investor behavior across Upbit, Coinbase, Crypto.com, and Binance.
Upbit users showed stronger deposit dominance, Coinbase and Crypto.com users favored withdrawals, while Binance users remained comparatively stable with only a modest increase in deposit-side activity.
Written by Amr Taha

Bitcoin’s 90-day Spot Taker CVD shows whether real market buyers or sellers are in control.
Green areas represent periods when buyers are dominant, while red areas indicate stronger selling pressure.
The most important development on the chart is clear:
The strong spot buying pressure that supported Bitcoin has started to weaken, and the indicator has returned to the neutral zone.
This does not mean buyers have completely left the market. However, there is currently not enough aggressive spot demand to push the price significantly higher.
Bitcoin now faces two clear scenarios:
If the indicator turns green again, it would signal that real spot demand is returning and the upward move could gain strength.
If the indicator turns red, selling pressure may increase and Bitcoin could enter a new downward wave.
My interpretation of the current structure is simple:
Bitcoin is currently searching for direction. The next major move will depend on whether spot buyers return to the market.
Before expecting a sustainable rally, I want to see this indicator turn green again. Because lasting price increases are driven by real spot demand, not leverage.
Written by İbrahim COŞAR

This week was marked by the largest BTC sale in Strategy's history. The company offloaded 3 588 BTC for approximately $216 million, an operation aimed at funding dividends on their Digital Credit securities.
The detail is far from trivial, with an average acquisition price of $75 476, and this sale taking place around the $60 000 level, Strategy took a loss of roughly 20% on the transaction.
A choice that reflects the company's need for liquidity, rather than a market conviction. Despite this sale, Strategy remains a major player and still holds 843 775 Bitcoin today, an amount that alone exceeds the reserves of the exchange Binance, which totals 656 561 BTC.
To put these figures into context, it's worth noting that exchanges collectively hold around 8 million BTC today, with nearly 30% concentrated on Binance alone, a notable proportion among exchanges open to all types of investors.
By comparison, all the BTC sitting on Binance carries an estimated realized price of around $60 900, a level well below Strategy's own.
Written by Darkfost

Observation
Recent on-chain data presents a complex divergence between network transaction volume and actual capital flow. Over the past week, regular user (EOA) transaction counts have increased by approximately 40%. However, the median USD value of all token transfers has simultaneously plummeted by 77%. In the derivatives market, Binance funding rates have spiked dramatically, rising 2,399% against their 30-day baseline.
Context
Typically, a rising transaction count suggests robust network adoption and capital deployment. Yet, the severe contraction in median transfer sizes, accompanied by a 44% decline in median transaction fees over the past month, indicates that this baseline activity is predominantly driven by low-value micro-transactions or bot activity rather than significant institutional capital allocation. Furthermore, massive spikes in stablecoin redemptions and supply burns confirm that macro purchasing power is currently suppressed.
Comparison
This landscape reveals a stark contrast between physical network economics and speculative behavior. While the Ethereum base layer experiences a “velocity illusion”—high transaction counts but shrinking economic weight—speculative traders on Binance are aggressively piling into long leverage. The overheated funding rates and elevated market premiums indicate that derivatives traders are positioning for bullish momentum that is not yet validated by large-scale on-chain capital movement.
Potential Outcome
A structural environment where derivative enthusiasm vastly outpaces the economic weight of base-layer transactions creates conditions that historically leave markets vulnerable to leverage flushes. If organic, high-value capital and stablecoin inflows do not materialize to support this speculative positioning, the current structure may struggle to sustain continuous upward momentum, elevating the risk of sudden deleveraging events.
Written by CryptoOnchain

1. US Institutions & Retail: Sustained Outflows
ETF Outflows: Since October 11, 2025, TradFi (traditional finance) has pulled nearly $10B from spot ETFs.
Coinbase Premium: The premium has remained negative for 65 consecutive days, marking the longest streak of negative premium since January 2024. This reflects weak buying pressure in the US market.
2. New Whales: Continued Accumulation
In direct contrast to the ETF selloff, the number of new whales holding bitcoin has steadily increased since 2024. As we enter 2026, supply is actively rotating from old whales to new ones.
Conclusion
The market is currently flashing mixed signals. While continuous whale accumulation provides a buffer against further downside, a definitive, broad-based market bottom has yet to be confirmed.
Written by Sunny Mom

Data from CryptoQuant shows that Spot Average Order Size is currently leaning toward Big Whale Orders, while the Spot Volume Bubble Map remains in a Cooling state.
This suggests that overall spot market activity is still relatively subdued, but large-sized orders continue to appear. In other words, retail has not returned strongly yet, while large capital is still quietly active.
The market has not seen an explosion in volume, but whale activity remains present around lower price levels.
If large orders continue to appear while spot volume gradually recovers, it could be a sign that supply absorption is taking place before the market establishes a clearer direction.
Written by Rei Researcher

The Binance-specific data shows a more retail-driven version of Bitcoin’s current derivatives risk. Binance open interest has fallen dramatically from the $14B–$15B range in late 2025 to roughly $7.5B, confirming that the exchange has undergone a major speculative reset. Yet the recent rebound in open interest from the June lows shows that traders are reloading positions as Bitcoin recovers toward $63.6K. This matters because Binance often reflects global retail and high-turnover derivatives behaviour more clearly than the all-exchange aggregate.
The clearest warning comes from Binance’s estimated leverage ratio. The ratio sits near 0.18 and has climbed back toward its 100-day moving average after falling sharply during the February deleveraging event. This indicates that leveraged exposure is rebuilding faster than price is repairing its broader downtrend. In a healthy recovery, price usually leads and leverage follows. Here, leverage is rising while Bitcoin remains far below the $80K May rebound high and the $120K cycle high. That makes the setup vulnerable to another forced move if price fails to hold the $60K–$62K area.
Funding rates on Binance show that retail positioning has also shifted. Funding was deeply negative during the February breakdown and remained weak through much of March and April. It has now turned positive again and is close to 0.01, which means long traders are once again paying shorts. Positive funding is not automatically bearish, but when it appears after a sharp drawdown and alongside rising leverage, it can show premature bullish positioning.
We can estimate that retail traders are leaning back into the market, but conviction remains fragile. A short squeeze can still push Bitcoin higher if price clears nearby resistance and shorts get trapped. However, the bigger risk is that leverage has returned before spot demand has strengthened.
Written by Novaque Research

When the Open Interest, Market Cap, and NVT Ratio are evaluated together, the chart shows that both the size of capital in the XRP market and interest in the futures market have weakened, while on-chain valuation metrics have yet to signal a strong recovery.
The latest data shows Open Interest has declined to $350.6 million, falling to one of its lowest levels in recent months. This decline indicates that open positions in the futures market are being closed and leveraged traders are exiting the market. Under normal circumstances, this could reduce selling pressure. However, the chart also shows that Market Cap has fallen to $10.89 billion, revealing that not only leverage but also capital is leaving the market. In other words, while positions are being closed, no meaningful new capital is flowing in.
This picture is further supported by the NVT Ratio remaining at 162.86. The NVT staying at elevated levels suggests that on-chain network activity has not accelerated enough to support a recovery in the market's valuation.
Market risk appetite has weakened significantly. Investors appear exhausted. Open positions in the futures market are declining, while the spot market's capitalization continues to shrink. Taken together, these metrics indicate that price action in XRP remains in favor of sellers.
Written by PelinayPA

Ethereum recorded a rare cross-market divergence on July 6, 2026, as Binance derivatives saw their deepest ETH open interest contraction in nearly two years while OKX spot activity surged to its strongest level since February.
Binance’s Ethereum 30-day open interest change dropped to -594,000 ETH on July 6.
This marks the largest negative reading since August 2024.
The key point is that this was not just a broad market slowdown.
On the same day, Ethereum spot trading volume on OKX jumped to $2.09 billion, its highest level since February 5, 2026.
For comparison, OKX recorded around $1.4 billion in ETH spot volume on February 5. The July 6 reading was therefore about $690 million higher, or nearly 49% above that previous level.
This kind of divergence is important because deep negative open interest changes can reflect forced unwinds, position closures, or a broader reduction in speculative leverage.
However, when the same period also shows a surge in spot volume, it may indicate that the market is actively repricing ETH through spot demand rather than only deleveraging through derivatives.
The July 6 setup therefore shows two different forces moving at the same time:
Binance recorded the strongest ETH leverage flush since August 2024, while OKX saw its highest ETH spot volume since February 5.
A sharp decline in open interest can create short-term pressure, but it can also clean excess leverage from the market.
The stronger signal here is the contrast between derivatives contraction and spot market expansion.
Written by Amr Taha

Open interest data for XRP futures contracts on Binance shows a significant decline in recent days, falling to approximately 397 million XRP, its lowest level in more than three months. This decline coincides with XRP's price dropping to around $1.09, indicating a slowdown in activity within the derivatives market.
A decline in open interest indicates a reduction in the number of outstanding futures contracts, either because traders are closing existing positions or because fewer new positions are being opened. When this decline occurs alongside falling prices, it often reflects weaker risk appetite and an outflow of liquidity from the futures market, resulting in lower leverage levels compared with previous periods.
Although a decline in open interest is not necessarily a definitive bearish signal, it does point to reduced trader participation in the derivatives market. In many cases, this phase represents a period of repositioning as investors await a clearer market direction. Therefore, any subsequent increase in open interest accompanied by a recovery in price could signal the return of liquidity and the beginning of a more active trading phase. Conversely, continued declines in open interest may indicate that traders remain cautious and are waiting for stronger market signals.
Written by Arab Chain

Observation
Recent stablecoin flows across Binance suggest a broader structural withdrawal of purchasing power. Over the past 30 days, USDC reserves on the exchange have contracted by roughly 21.6%, falling from $5.75B to $4.6B. Simultaneously, Ethereum-based Tether (USDT-ETH) recorded massive single-day outflow anomalies, notably -$997M on June 26 and -$838M on July 7. Consequently, the aggregate stablecoin netflow for Binance has averaged a deficit of -$115M per day over the past week.
Context
Stablecoin reserves act as the primary "dry powder" required to absorb sell-side pressure and sustain upward price discovery. When USDC (representing regulated, risk-averse capital) and USDT-ETH (representing crypto-native whales) simultaneously exit a major exchange, it typically points toward capital preservation. A declining Exchange Supply Ratio (ESR) across these assets indicates that liquidity is migrating toward cold storage, DeFi protocols, or OTC desks.
Comparison
Unlike previous phases where capital simply rotated between different stablecoin cohorts, the current environment illustrates a synchronized exodus. While the market has maintained relatively stable price action in the short term, this is occurring against a backdrop of thinning order books. The withdrawal of over $1B in aggregate stablecoin liquidity removes the underlying cushion that typically dampens volatility during market shocks.
Potential Outcome
An environment characterized by coordinated stablecoin outflows creates a fragile liquidity structure. Without sufficient dry powder on exchanges to absorb structural selling, the market may become increasingly sensitive to sudden localized volatility. These conditions have historically preceded periods of erratic price action, suggesting the market may require a renewed influx of stablecoin deposits to establish a durable structural floor.
Written by CryptoOnchain

Recent research by XWIN's U.S. Market Research Analyst, Delia Rojo, highlights a significant shift in American politics. While only a small percentage of members of Congress directly hold cryptocurrencies, many influential policymakers—including senior Trump administration officials and key lawmakers involved in digital asset legislation—have exposure to Bitcoin or other crypto-related assets.
This is no longer simply about personal investment. In the United States, digital assets have become intertwined with regulation, elections, financial strategy, and national competitiveness. The rapid growth of spot Bitcoin ETFs and institutional adoption has also made the U.S. the dominant force in the global Bitcoin market, meaning political decisions in Washington increasingly affect crypto markets worldwide.
Many policymakers now view Bitcoin and digital assets not merely as speculative investments but as strategic infrastructure tied to financial innovation, dollar competitiveness, and geopolitical influence. At the same time, this trend raises important questions about transparency and potential conflicts of interest when policymakers own assets affected by the laws they help create.
At XWIN, we believe this represents a historic transition. Crypto is no longer simply influenced by politics—it is beginning to influence politics itself. Understanding who owns digital assets, who writes the rules, and how governments integrate crypto into national strategy will be just as important as tracking market prices in the years ahead.
Written by XWIN Japan