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This Signal Has Appeared Before Every Major WashoutBitcoin’s current correction is no longer just a price-driven drawdown. The Distressed Inflow Pressure Index is now showing that a meaningful share of BTC moving into exchanges is arriving under stress.
DIPI does not simply measure exchange inflow volume. It asks a more important question: how much of that inflow is coming from coins being sent to exchanges at a loss, and how abnormal is that pressure relative to the past year?
This distinction matters.
In normal pullbacks, exchange inflows can rise without necessarily implying capitulation. Coins may move for profit-taking, rotation, liquidity management, or derivative collateral. But when DIPI spikes, the structure changes: the market is seeing a larger concentration of underwater coins moving toward venues where selling becomes more likely.
Historically, strong DIPI regimes have appeared during periods of market stress: the 2018 bear market, the 2022 deleveraging phase, and now again in 2026. That tells us something important beneath price: some holders are no longer simply waiting. They are transferring risk back to the market.
The involvement of long-term holder inflows makes the signal more relevant.
When older coins begin moving to exchanges at a loss, it usually reflects deeper investor fatigue, forced de-risking, or a shift in conviction. This is structurally different from short-term traders selling into volatility.
For now, DIPI is not a clean bottom signal by itself, but a stress signal. In past cycles, capitulation zones often marked areas where the market was getting closer to exhaustion, but only after sustained pressure had been absorbed and price stopped reacting aggressively to loss-driven inflows.
What to watch next is whether DIPI remains elevated while BTC continues to make lower lows, or whether the signal begins to fade while price stabilizes. The first would suggest unresolved sell pressure. The second would indicate that the market is starting to absorb distressed supply.
Written by MorenoDV_
This Signal Has Appeared Before Every Major Washout
Bitcoin’s current correction is no longer just a price-driven drawdown. The Distressed Inflow Pressure Index is now showing that a meaningful share of BTC moving into exchanges is arriving under stress.
DIPI does not simply measure exchange inflow volume. It asks a more important question: how much of that inflow is coming from coins being sent to exchanges at a loss, and how abnormal is that pressure relative to the past year?
This distinction matters.
In normal pullbacks, exchange inflows can rise without necessarily implying capitulation. Coins may move for profit-taking, rotation, liquidity management, or derivative collateral. But when DIPI spikes, the structure changes: the market is seeing a larger concentration of underwater coins moving toward venues where selling becomes more likely.
Historically, strong DIPI regimes have appeared during periods of market stress: the 2018 bear market, the 2022 deleveraging phase, and now again in 2026. That tells us something important beneath price: some holders are no longer simply waiting. They are transferring risk back to the market.
The involvement of long-term holder inflows makes the signal more relevant.
When older coins begin moving to exchanges at a loss, it usually reflects deeper investor fatigue, forced de-risking, or a shift in conviction. This is structurally different from short-term traders selling into volatility.
For now, DIPI is not a clean bottom signal by itself, but a stress signal. In past cycles, capitulation zones often marked areas where the market was getting closer to exhaustion, but only after sustained pressure had been absorbed and price stopped reacting aggressively to loss-driven inflows.
What to watch next is whether DIPI remains elevated while BTC continues to make lower lows, or whether the signal begins to fade while price stabilizes. The first would suggest unresolved sell pressure. The second would indicate that the market is starting to absorb distressed supply.
Written by MorenoDV_
DIPI does not simply measure exchange inflow volume. It asks a more important question: how much of that inflow is coming from coins being sent to exchanges at a loss, and how abnormal is that pressure relative to the past year?
This distinction matters.
In normal pullbacks, exchange inflows can rise without necessarily implying capitulation. Coins may move for profit-taking, rotation, liquidity management, or derivative collateral. But when DIPI spikes, the structure changes: the market is seeing a larger concentration of underwater coins moving toward venues where selling becomes more likely.
Historically, strong DIPI regimes have appeared during periods of market stress: the 2018 bear market, the 2022 deleveraging phase, and now again in 2026. That tells us something important beneath price: some holders are no longer simply waiting. They are transferring risk back to the market.
The involvement of long-term holder inflows makes the signal more relevant.
When older coins begin moving to exchanges at a loss, it usually reflects deeper investor fatigue, forced de-risking, or a shift in conviction. This is structurally different from short-term traders selling into volatility.
For now, DIPI is not a clean bottom signal by itself, but a stress signal. In past cycles, capitulation zones often marked areas where the market was getting closer to exhaustion, but only after sustained pressure had been absorbed and price stopped reacting aggressively to loss-driven inflows.
What to watch next is whether DIPI remains elevated while BTC continues to make lower lows, or whether the signal begins to fade while price stabilizes. The first would suggest unresolved sell pressure. The second would indicate that the market is starting to absorb distressed supply.
Written by MorenoDV_
4
Article
Bitcoin Cooling Leverage, Lingering RiskHere’s a tighter English version at roughly half the length:
Bitcoin’s on-chain setup is neutral with a slight short-term risk bias, as leverage has cooled but exchange inflows and elevated funding remain.
Exchange netflow turned positive at roughly 556 BTC after the previous day’s 4,461 BTC outflow. However, the seven-day cumulative inflow is only about 282 BTC, so this is not yet strong evidence of sustained selling pressure.
Funding fell from 0.00809 to 0.00719 but remains above the 30-day average of 0.00457. Long positioning is still crowded enough to create downside risk if price weakens.
Open interest declined 1.3% to about $21.02B and is down roughly 4.3% from July 5. This suggests some leverage has been cleared, although funding remains too elevated to call the derivatives market fully healthy.
Realized price stayed nearly flat around $53,102, showing little change in the market’s broader cost basis. Without spot price data, the current valuation gap cannot be assessed.
The evidence leans neutral to mildly cautious rather than strongly bullish. The risk view would weaken if exchange outflows resume, funding normalizes, and open interest stabilizes; repeated inflows alongside rising funding and open interest would increase distribution and overheating risk.
Exchange flows have shifted slightly toward inflows. Leverage is cooling, but long bias remains elevated. The next move depends on whether spot selling pressure or renewed derivatives overheating appears first.
Tomorrow, watch whether exchange inflows persist, funding remains elevated, and open interest starts rising again.
Written by CoinNiel
Bitcoin Cooling Leverage, Lingering Risk
Here’s a tighter English version at roughly half the length:
Bitcoin’s on-chain setup is neutral with a slight short-term risk bias, as leverage has cooled but exchange inflows and elevated funding remain.
Exchange netflow turned positive at roughly 556 BTC after the previous day’s 4,461 BTC outflow. However, the seven-day cumulative inflow is only about 282 BTC, so this is not yet strong evidence of sustained selling pressure.
Funding fell from 0.00809 to 0.00719 but remains above the 30-day average of 0.00457. Long positioning is still crowded enough to create downside risk if price weakens.
Open interest declined 1.3% to about $21.02B and is down roughly 4.3% from July 5. This suggests some leverage has been cleared, although funding remains too elevated to call the derivatives market fully healthy.
Realized price stayed nearly flat around $53,102, showing little change in the market’s broader cost basis. Without spot price data, the current valuation gap cannot be assessed.
The evidence leans neutral to mildly cautious rather than strongly bullish. The risk view would weaken if exchange outflows resume, funding normalizes, and open interest stabilizes; repeated inflows alongside rising funding and open interest would increase distribution and overheating risk.
Exchange flows have shifted slightly toward inflows. Leverage is cooling, but long bias remains elevated. The next move depends on whether spot selling pressure or renewed derivatives overheating appears first.
Tomorrow, watch whether exchange inflows persist, funding remains elevated, and open interest starts rising again.
Written by CoinNiel
Bitcoin’s on-chain setup is neutral with a slight short-term risk bias, as leverage has cooled but exchange inflows and elevated funding remain.
Exchange netflow turned positive at roughly 556 BTC after the previous day’s 4,461 BTC outflow. However, the seven-day cumulative inflow is only about 282 BTC, so this is not yet strong evidence of sustained selling pressure.
Funding fell from 0.00809 to 0.00719 but remains above the 30-day average of 0.00457. Long positioning is still crowded enough to create downside risk if price weakens.
Open interest declined 1.3% to about $21.02B and is down roughly 4.3% from July 5. This suggests some leverage has been cleared, although funding remains too elevated to call the derivatives market fully healthy.
Realized price stayed nearly flat around $53,102, showing little change in the market’s broader cost basis. Without spot price data, the current valuation gap cannot be assessed.
The evidence leans neutral to mildly cautious rather than strongly bullish. The risk view would weaken if exchange outflows resume, funding normalizes, and open interest stabilizes; repeated inflows alongside rising funding and open interest would increase distribution and overheating risk.
Exchange flows have shifted slightly toward inflows. Leverage is cooling, but long bias remains elevated. The next move depends on whether spot selling pressure or renewed derivatives overheating appears first.
Tomorrow, watch whether exchange inflows persist, funding remains elevated, and open interest starts rising again.
Written by CoinNiel
7
Article
Retail Liquidity Is Defensive, Not Aggressively BullishBinance shows a more retail-sensitive version of the same market problem: liquidity exists, but it is not being deployed with conviction. Binance ERC-20 stablecoin reserves sit near $44.1B, below the recent 100-day moving average and well under the late-2025 high above $50B. This decline matters because Binance remains one of the most important venues for retail and global non-U.S. liquidity. When Binance stablecoin balances fall while Bitcoin trades near cycle-stress levels, retail buying power has either left the venue, moved off-exchange, or remained inactive outside the immediate order-book environment.
Bitcoin reserves on Binance give a different signal from the stablecoin chart. Binance BTC reserves have risen sharply from the April–May low near the low 620K BTC area to roughly 657K BTC. That increase deserves attention because rising exchange reserves often increase potential sell-side liquidity. In a bullish accumulation phase, investors typically withdraw BTC from exchanges. Here, Binance balances have been rebuilding while price remains weak, which makes the signal more defensive than bullish.
Binance netflows confirm the ambiguity. The latest netflow reading is slightly positive, near +340 BTC, which is not large by historical standards but still shows that Binance is not experiencing strong net withdrawals at the margin. The broader chart shows alternating inflow and outflow spikes, which suggests short-term positioning, liquidity rotation, and tactical trading rather than patient accumulation.
The Coinbase Premium Index remains mostly negative into July, suggesting Binance-linked liquidity has not been met by strong U.S. spot demand. Reuters also reported that Bitcoin rose after softer U.S. jobs data reduced rate-hike expectations, but the broader market remains sensitive to Fed policy and ETF flows. Thus, leading us to believe that retail conditions look defensive.
Written by Novaque Research
Retail Liquidity Is Defensive, Not Aggressively Bullish
Binance shows a more retail-sensitive version of the same market problem: liquidity exists, but it is not being deployed with conviction. Binance ERC-20 stablecoin reserves sit near $44.1B, below the recent 100-day moving average and well under the late-2025 high above $50B. This decline matters because Binance remains one of the most important venues for retail and global non-U.S. liquidity. When Binance stablecoin balances fall while Bitcoin trades near cycle-stress levels, retail buying power has either left the venue, moved off-exchange, or remained inactive outside the immediate order-book environment.
Bitcoin reserves on Binance give a different signal from the stablecoin chart. Binance BTC reserves have risen sharply from the April–May low near the low 620K BTC area to roughly 657K BTC. That increase deserves attention because rising exchange reserves often increase potential sell-side liquidity. In a bullish accumulation phase, investors typically withdraw BTC from exchanges. Here, Binance balances have been rebuilding while price remains weak, which makes the signal more defensive than bullish.
Binance netflows confirm the ambiguity. The latest netflow reading is slightly positive, near +340 BTC, which is not large by historical standards but still shows that Binance is not experiencing strong net withdrawals at the margin. The broader chart shows alternating inflow and outflow spikes, which suggests short-term positioning, liquidity rotation, and tactical trading rather than patient accumulation.
The Coinbase Premium Index remains mostly negative into July, suggesting Binance-linked liquidity has not been met by strong U.S. spot demand. Reuters also reported that Bitcoin rose after softer U.S. jobs data reduced rate-hike expectations, but the broader market remains sensitive to Fed policy and ETF flows. Thus, leading us to believe that retail conditions look defensive.
Written by Novaque Research
Bitcoin reserves on Binance give a different signal from the stablecoin chart. Binance BTC reserves have risen sharply from the April–May low near the low 620K BTC area to roughly 657K BTC. That increase deserves attention because rising exchange reserves often increase potential sell-side liquidity. In a bullish accumulation phase, investors typically withdraw BTC from exchanges. Here, Binance balances have been rebuilding while price remains weak, which makes the signal more defensive than bullish.
Binance netflows confirm the ambiguity. The latest netflow reading is slightly positive, near +340 BTC, which is not large by historical standards but still shows that Binance is not experiencing strong net withdrawals at the margin. The broader chart shows alternating inflow and outflow spikes, which suggests short-term positioning, liquidity rotation, and tactical trading rather than patient accumulation.
The Coinbase Premium Index remains mostly negative into July, suggesting Binance-linked liquidity has not been met by strong U.S. spot demand. Reuters also reported that Bitcoin rose after softer U.S. jobs data reduced rate-hike expectations, but the broader market remains sensitive to Fed policy and ETF flows. Thus, leading us to believe that retail conditions look defensive.
Written by Novaque Research
41
Article
Bitcoin Demand in the Futures Market Is Starting.$BTC futures demand has turned positive. It shifted to positive due to a sharp increase in upward pressure in the futures market.
Additionally, demand in the spot market is also slightly negative.
Although total demand is slightly negative, the increase rate in demand is very strong.
It appears that spot demand for $BTC will also turn positive soon. We are on the verge of a real bull market.
Written by CW8900
Bitcoin Demand in the Futures Market Is Starting.
$BTC futures demand has turned positive. It shifted to positive due to a sharp increase in upward pressure in the futures market.
Additionally, demand in the spot market is also slightly negative.
Although total demand is slightly negative, the increase rate in demand is very strong.
It appears that spot demand for $BTC will also turn positive soon. We are on the verge of a real bull market.
Written by CW8900
Additionally, demand in the spot market is also slightly negative.
Although total demand is slightly negative, the increase rate in demand is very strong.
It appears that spot demand for $BTC will also turn positive soon. We are on the verge of a real bull market.
Written by CW8900
1
4.2k
Article
Bitcoin’s Liquidity Rebound Is Still UnconfirmedBitcoin’s all-exchange on-chain structure shows a market trying to stabilise, but not yet proving that a durable accumulation phase has returned. The clearest message comes from the stablecoin reserve chart. All ERC-20 stablecoins held across exchanges have fallen from the November 2025 peak near the mid-$70B area to roughly $63.2B by early July. The 100-day moving average also rolls over, which means exchange-side stablecoin liquidity is not expanding into Bitcoin’s recent recovery attempt. That matters because stablecoins on exchanges represent immediately deployable buying power. When that balance contracts while price remains under pressure, the market often lacks the cash buffer needed for sustained upside.
BTC reserves have trended lower from above 3.0M BTC in early 2025 to around 2.71M BTC, which usually suggests structural coin withdrawals and reduced liquidity. However, the recent flattening near 2.70M–2.72M BTC shows that the drawdown in reserves has paused. That pause weakens the accumulation argument because investors are no longer removing coins from exchanges at the same intensity seen earlier in the cycle.
Macro and institutional flows reinforce the caution. The Federal Reserve held the funds-rate target at 3.50%–3.75% in June, keeping risk assets sensitive to liquidity conditions. Reuters also reported that Citi cut its Bitcoin forecast because ETF flows turned negative, citing weaker investor demand and $3.3B of Bitcoin ETF outflows so far this year.
Overall, Bitcoin’s all-exchange setup has improved, but it has not yet confirmed a new bullish impulse. Stablecoin liquidity is contracting, BTC reserve outflows have slowed, and institutional demand remains fragile. Until exchange stablecoin balances stabilise or expand and BTC reserves resume a clearer downtrend, the evidence points more to tentative stabilisation than renewed accumulation.
Written by Novaque Research
Bitcoin’s Liquidity Rebound Is Still Unconfirmed
Bitcoin’s all-exchange on-chain structure shows a market trying to stabilise, but not yet proving that a durable accumulation phase has returned. The clearest message comes from the stablecoin reserve chart. All ERC-20 stablecoins held across exchanges have fallen from the November 2025 peak near the mid-$70B area to roughly $63.2B by early July. The 100-day moving average also rolls over, which means exchange-side stablecoin liquidity is not expanding into Bitcoin’s recent recovery attempt. That matters because stablecoins on exchanges represent immediately deployable buying power. When that balance contracts while price remains under pressure, the market often lacks the cash buffer needed for sustained upside.
BTC reserves have trended lower from above 3.0M BTC in early 2025 to around 2.71M BTC, which usually suggests structural coin withdrawals and reduced liquidity. However, the recent flattening near 2.70M–2.72M BTC shows that the drawdown in reserves has paused. That pause weakens the accumulation argument because investors are no longer removing coins from exchanges at the same intensity seen earlier in the cycle.
Macro and institutional flows reinforce the caution. The Federal Reserve held the funds-rate target at 3.50%–3.75% in June, keeping risk assets sensitive to liquidity conditions. Reuters also reported that Citi cut its Bitcoin forecast because ETF flows turned negative, citing weaker investor demand and $3.3B of Bitcoin ETF outflows so far this year.
Overall, Bitcoin’s all-exchange setup has improved, but it has not yet confirmed a new bullish impulse. Stablecoin liquidity is contracting, BTC reserve outflows have slowed, and institutional demand remains fragile. Until exchange stablecoin balances stabilise or expand and BTC reserves resume a clearer downtrend, the evidence points more to tentative stabilisation than renewed accumulation.
Written by Novaque Research
BTC reserves have trended lower from above 3.0M BTC in early 2025 to around 2.71M BTC, which usually suggests structural coin withdrawals and reduced liquidity. However, the recent flattening near 2.70M–2.72M BTC shows that the drawdown in reserves has paused. That pause weakens the accumulation argument because investors are no longer removing coins from exchanges at the same intensity seen earlier in the cycle.
Macro and institutional flows reinforce the caution. The Federal Reserve held the funds-rate target at 3.50%–3.75% in June, keeping risk assets sensitive to liquidity conditions. Reuters also reported that Citi cut its Bitcoin forecast because ETF flows turned negative, citing weaker investor demand and $3.3B of Bitcoin ETF outflows so far this year.
Overall, Bitcoin’s all-exchange setup has improved, but it has not yet confirmed a new bullish impulse. Stablecoin liquidity is contracting, BTC reserve outflows have slowed, and institutional demand remains fragile. Until exchange stablecoin balances stabilise or expand and BTC reserves resume a clearer downtrend, the evidence points more to tentative stabilisation than renewed accumulation.
Written by Novaque Research
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4k
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Article
Trading Activity Boosts Ethereum Liquidity on BinanceData from the ETH Binance 30D Exchange Liquidity Ratio indicates that the liquidity ratio on Binance rose to approximately 5.22 This was based on a 30-day trading volume of approximately 20.32 million ETH, while Binance's Ethereum reserves stood at around 3.8 million ETH. This increase reflects a significant improvement in the efficiency of liquidity utilization on the platform, with a larger volume of ETH being traded relative to the available reserves.
This reading means that each unit of ETH held on Binance was turned over more than five times during the past 30 days, demonstrating a high level of liquidity efficiency. It suggests that current trading activity remains strong relative to the amount of ETH held in Binance's wallets.
The data also shows that the 30-day trading volume significantly exceeds the platform's Ethereum reserves, indicating that the available liquidity is sufficient to support strong market activity without requiring a substantial increase in exchange balances. This is generally interpreted as a sign of an active market with a high rate of asset turnover.
Meanwhile, Binance's Ethereum reserve of approximately 3.8 million ETH does not indicate a substantial surplus of coins readily available for sale. If demand remains stable or continues to increase, this could help limit selling pressure on the market.
Written by Arab Chain
Trading Activity Boosts Ethereum Liquidity on Binance
Data from the ETH Binance 30D Exchange Liquidity Ratio indicates that the liquidity ratio on Binance rose to approximately 5.22 This was based on a 30-day trading volume of approximately 20.32 million ETH, while Binance's Ethereum reserves stood at around 3.8 million ETH. This increase reflects a significant improvement in the efficiency of liquidity utilization on the platform, with a larger volume of ETH being traded relative to the available reserves.
This reading means that each unit of ETH held on Binance was turned over more than five times during the past 30 days, demonstrating a high level of liquidity efficiency. It suggests that current trading activity remains strong relative to the amount of ETH held in Binance's wallets.
The data also shows that the 30-day trading volume significantly exceeds the platform's Ethereum reserves, indicating that the available liquidity is sufficient to support strong market activity without requiring a substantial increase in exchange balances. This is generally interpreted as a sign of an active market with a high rate of asset turnover.
Meanwhile, Binance's Ethereum reserve of approximately 3.8 million ETH does not indicate a substantial surplus of coins readily available for sale. If demand remains stable or continues to increase, this could help limit selling pressure on the market.
Written by Arab Chain
This reading means that each unit of ETH held on Binance was turned over more than five times during the past 30 days, demonstrating a high level of liquidity efficiency. It suggests that current trading activity remains strong relative to the amount of ETH held in Binance's wallets.
The data also shows that the 30-day trading volume significantly exceeds the platform's Ethereum reserves, indicating that the available liquidity is sufficient to support strong market activity without requiring a substantial increase in exchange balances. This is generally interpreted as a sign of an active market with a high rate of asset turnover.
Meanwhile, Binance's Ethereum reserve of approximately 3.8 million ETH does not indicate a substantial surplus of coins readily available for sale. If demand remains stable or continues to increase, this could help limit selling pressure on the market.
Written by Arab Chain
1
1.9k
Article
XRP Spot CVD Turns Positive Across CEXs As Binance Perpetual Selling Deepens to -$783MXRP is showing a widening divergence between spot-market flows and derivatives positioning, with estimated spot demand across centralized exchanges turning strongly positive while Binance perpetual traders remain heavily sell-side.
All CEX Estimated Spot CVD climbed from roughly -$42 million on May 12 to +$406 million by July 7—a net improvement of around $448 million.
The move suggests that market-buying activity in the spot market has increasingly absorbed available XRP supply over the past two months.
However, Binance’s perpetual market tells the opposite story.
Binance Perpetual CVD declined from approximately -$48 million to -$783 million during the same period, a deterioration of about $735 million.
That indicates sustained sell-side aggression in XRP perpetual contracts, even as broader spot flows strengthened across exchanges.
The divergence was accompanied by a notable reduction in leveraged positioning. Binance Open Interest fell from around $255 million on May 22 to $203 million on July 7, a decline of roughly $52 million, or just over 20%.
The combined pattern points to a market where spot demand is improving while derivatives traders remain cautious and leverage continues to unwind.
Rather than confirming a broad speculative chase, the data suggests XRP’s spot market has been absorbing supply as perpetual traders reduce exposure or maintain defensive positioning.
Binance’s spot data also shows early signs of improvement, though it has not yet turned positive. Binance Estimated Spot CVD rose from about -$212 million on June 25 to -$173 million on July 7, improving by nearly $39 million. That means spot selling pressure on Binance has eased, but net spot flows there remain negative.
The key signal for XRP is now the split between the two markets: broad CEX spot flows have moved decisively positive, while Binance perpetual selling remains near deeply negative levels and open interest continues to decline.
Written by Amr Taha
XRP Spot CVD Turns Positive Across CEXs As Binance Perpetual Selling Deepens to -$783M
XRP is showing a widening divergence between spot-market flows and derivatives positioning, with estimated spot demand across centralized exchanges turning strongly positive while Binance perpetual traders remain heavily sell-side.
All CEX Estimated Spot CVD climbed from roughly -$42 million on May 12 to +$406 million by July 7—a net improvement of around $448 million.
The move suggests that market-buying activity in the spot market has increasingly absorbed available XRP supply over the past two months.
However, Binance’s perpetual market tells the opposite story.
Binance Perpetual CVD declined from approximately -$48 million to -$783 million during the same period, a deterioration of about $735 million.
That indicates sustained sell-side aggression in XRP perpetual contracts, even as broader spot flows strengthened across exchanges.
The divergence was accompanied by a notable reduction in leveraged positioning. Binance Open Interest fell from around $255 million on May 22 to $203 million on July 7, a decline of roughly $52 million, or just over 20%.
The combined pattern points to a market where spot demand is improving while derivatives traders remain cautious and leverage continues to unwind.
Rather than confirming a broad speculative chase, the data suggests XRP’s spot market has been absorbing supply as perpetual traders reduce exposure or maintain defensive positioning.
Binance’s spot data also shows early signs of improvement, though it has not yet turned positive. Binance Estimated Spot CVD rose from about -$212 million on June 25 to -$173 million on July 7, improving by nearly $39 million. That means spot selling pressure on Binance has eased, but net spot flows there remain negative.
The key signal for XRP is now the split between the two markets: broad CEX spot flows have moved decisively positive, while Binance perpetual selling remains near deeply negative levels and open interest continues to decline.
Written by Amr Taha
All CEX Estimated Spot CVD climbed from roughly -$42 million on May 12 to +$406 million by July 7—a net improvement of around $448 million.
The move suggests that market-buying activity in the spot market has increasingly absorbed available XRP supply over the past two months.
However, Binance’s perpetual market tells the opposite story.
Binance Perpetual CVD declined from approximately -$48 million to -$783 million during the same period, a deterioration of about $735 million.
That indicates sustained sell-side aggression in XRP perpetual contracts, even as broader spot flows strengthened across exchanges.
The divergence was accompanied by a notable reduction in leveraged positioning. Binance Open Interest fell from around $255 million on May 22 to $203 million on July 7, a decline of roughly $52 million, or just over 20%.
The combined pattern points to a market where spot demand is improving while derivatives traders remain cautious and leverage continues to unwind.
Rather than confirming a broad speculative chase, the data suggests XRP’s spot market has been absorbing supply as perpetual traders reduce exposure or maintain defensive positioning.
Binance’s spot data also shows early signs of improvement, though it has not yet turned positive. Binance Estimated Spot CVD rose from about -$212 million on June 25 to -$173 million on July 7, improving by nearly $39 million. That means spot selling pressure on Binance has eased, but net spot flows there remain negative.
The key signal for XRP is now the split between the two markets: broad CEX spot flows have moved decisively positive, while Binance perpetual selling remains near deeply negative levels and open interest continues to decline.
Written by Amr Taha
139
Article
Ethereum Supply Rises Across Exchanges: Can the $2,000 Resistance Be Broken?In tandem with the downward trend in Ethereum (ETH) prices, a significant increase is being observed in Binance’s ETH reserves. On-chain data indicates that investors are actively transferring ETH from private wallets to the exchange.
Looking at price movements, ETH has bounced off the $1,500 support and continues its upward trajectory toward the $2,000 resistance. However, for this rally to be sustainable, there is a critical threshold: unless the $2,000 resistance is surpassed, ETH will be bound to test lower levels.
Current Exchange ETH Reserves
- Binance: 3.893 Million ETH
- Bitfinex: 2.2 Million ETH
- OKX: 1.18 Million ETH
- Bybit: 314 Thousand ETH
Inflow-Outflow Analysis and Supply-Demand Balance
Alongside high volatility, ETH inflows into Binance and OKX continue unabated. This surge in exchange supply creates selling pressure that outpaces market demand, suppressing the price.
Conversely, a different dynamic is at play on Bitfinex, where ETH holdings dropped from 2.7 million to 2.2 million. This decline indicates that investors are moving their ETH to cold wallets (accumulation). Meanwhile, on Bybit, inflows and outflows remain balanced, exhibiting a neutral outlook.
Conclusion and Short-Term Outlook
Critical Threshold: As ETH heads toward $2,000, the biggest risk is the mounting exchange supply. If buyer demand fails to absorb this influx, ETH will likely face a rejection at $2,000, triggering another downward wave. Investors should monitor when the trend of Binance inflows reverses.
Written by BorisD
Ethereum Supply Rises Across Exchanges: Can the $2,000 Resistance Be Broken?
In tandem with the downward trend in Ethereum (ETH) prices, a significant increase is being observed in Binance’s ETH reserves. On-chain data indicates that investors are actively transferring ETH from private wallets to the exchange.
Looking at price movements, ETH has bounced off the $1,500 support and continues its upward trajectory toward the $2,000 resistance. However, for this rally to be sustainable, there is a critical threshold: unless the $2,000 resistance is surpassed, ETH will be bound to test lower levels.
Current Exchange ETH Reserves
- Binance: 3.893 Million ETH
- Bitfinex: 2.2 Million ETH
- OKX: 1.18 Million ETH
- Bybit: 314 Thousand ETH
Inflow-Outflow Analysis and Supply-Demand Balance
Alongside high volatility, ETH inflows into Binance and OKX continue unabated. This surge in exchange supply creates selling pressure that outpaces market demand, suppressing the price.
Conversely, a different dynamic is at play on Bitfinex, where ETH holdings dropped from 2.7 million to 2.2 million. This decline indicates that investors are moving their ETH to cold wallets (accumulation). Meanwhile, on Bybit, inflows and outflows remain balanced, exhibiting a neutral outlook.
Conclusion and Short-Term Outlook
Critical Threshold: As ETH heads toward $2,000, the biggest risk is the mounting exchange supply. If buyer demand fails to absorb this influx, ETH will likely face a rejection at $2,000, triggering another downward wave. Investors should monitor when the trend of Binance inflows reverses.
Written by BorisD
Looking at price movements, ETH has bounced off the $1,500 support and continues its upward trajectory toward the $2,000 resistance. However, for this rally to be sustainable, there is a critical threshold: unless the $2,000 resistance is surpassed, ETH will be bound to test lower levels.
Current Exchange ETH Reserves
- Binance: 3.893 Million ETH
- Bitfinex: 2.2 Million ETH
- OKX: 1.18 Million ETH
- Bybit: 314 Thousand ETH
Inflow-Outflow Analysis and Supply-Demand Balance
Alongside high volatility, ETH inflows into Binance and OKX continue unabated. This surge in exchange supply creates selling pressure that outpaces market demand, suppressing the price.
Conversely, a different dynamic is at play on Bitfinex, where ETH holdings dropped from 2.7 million to 2.2 million. This decline indicates that investors are moving their ETH to cold wallets (accumulation). Meanwhile, on Bybit, inflows and outflows remain balanced, exhibiting a neutral outlook.
Conclusion and Short-Term Outlook
Critical Threshold: As ETH heads toward $2,000, the biggest risk is the mounting exchange supply. If buyer demand fails to absorb this influx, ETH will likely face a rejection at $2,000, triggering another downward wave. Investors should monitor when the trend of Binance inflows reverses.
Written by BorisD
191
Article
Bitcoin’s Structural Divergence: Offshore Leverage Outpaces US Spot DemandObservation
Over the past two weeks, Bitcoin’s price has recovered from approximately $58.5k to over $63.5k. However, beneath this price action lies a distinct divergence in market participation. Binance funding rates have spiked significantly (+860% compared to the 90-day baseline), indicating aggressive long positioning in derivatives markets. Conversely, the Coinbase Premium Index has remained persistently negative throughout this entire 14-day window, fluctuating between -0.09 and -0.17.
Context
The Coinbase Premium is traditionally viewed as a proxy for US-based institutional and high-net-worth spot demand, whereas Binance funding rates often reflect global, offshore, and retail derivatives sentiment. When offshore funding rates surge alongside a deeply negative Coinbase Premium, it suggests that the current price momentum is being driven primarily by speculative leverage rather than organic spot accumulation in the US.
Comparison
This derivative-heavy structure is further contextualized by the NVT Golden Cross, which experienced a sharp 579% decline relative to its 90-day baseline. A falling NVT ratio alongside rising prices implies that actual on-chain transaction value (network utility) is lagging behind market capitalization growth. In other words, the underlying network remains relatively quiet while derivatives activity is accelerating.
Potential Outcome
A market environment where price appreciation relies heavily on offshore leverage, without the foundational support of US spot demand, creates conditions that have historically preceded localized corrections. Until the Coinbase Premium neutralizes or turns positive—confirming renewed spot demand—the current market structure may leave over-leveraged long positions vulnerable to sudden deleveraging events.
Written by CryptoOnchain
Bitcoin’s Structural Divergence: Offshore Leverage Outpaces US Spot Demand
Observation
Over the past two weeks, Bitcoin’s price has recovered from approximately $58.5k to over $63.5k. However, beneath this price action lies a distinct divergence in market participation. Binance funding rates have spiked significantly (+860% compared to the 90-day baseline), indicating aggressive long positioning in derivatives markets. Conversely, the Coinbase Premium Index has remained persistently negative throughout this entire 14-day window, fluctuating between -0.09 and -0.17.
Context
The Coinbase Premium is traditionally viewed as a proxy for US-based institutional and high-net-worth spot demand, whereas Binance funding rates often reflect global, offshore, and retail derivatives sentiment. When offshore funding rates surge alongside a deeply negative Coinbase Premium, it suggests that the current price momentum is being driven primarily by speculative leverage rather than organic spot accumulation in the US.
Comparison
This derivative-heavy structure is further contextualized by the NVT Golden Cross, which experienced a sharp 579% decline relative to its 90-day baseline. A falling NVT ratio alongside rising prices implies that actual on-chain transaction value (network utility) is lagging behind market capitalization growth. In other words, the underlying network remains relatively quiet while derivatives activity is accelerating.
Potential Outcome
A market environment where price appreciation relies heavily on offshore leverage, without the foundational support of US spot demand, creates conditions that have historically preceded localized corrections. Until the Coinbase Premium neutralizes or turns positive—confirming renewed spot demand—the current market structure may leave over-leveraged long positions vulnerable to sudden deleveraging events.
Written by CryptoOnchain
Over the past two weeks, Bitcoin’s price has recovered from approximately $58.5k to over $63.5k. However, beneath this price action lies a distinct divergence in market participation. Binance funding rates have spiked significantly (+860% compared to the 90-day baseline), indicating aggressive long positioning in derivatives markets. Conversely, the Coinbase Premium Index has remained persistently negative throughout this entire 14-day window, fluctuating between -0.09 and -0.17.
Context
The Coinbase Premium is traditionally viewed as a proxy for US-based institutional and high-net-worth spot demand, whereas Binance funding rates often reflect global, offshore, and retail derivatives sentiment. When offshore funding rates surge alongside a deeply negative Coinbase Premium, it suggests that the current price momentum is being driven primarily by speculative leverage rather than organic spot accumulation in the US.
Comparison
This derivative-heavy structure is further contextualized by the NVT Golden Cross, which experienced a sharp 579% decline relative to its 90-day baseline. A falling NVT ratio alongside rising prices implies that actual on-chain transaction value (network utility) is lagging behind market capitalization growth. In other words, the underlying network remains relatively quiet while derivatives activity is accelerating.
Potential Outcome
A market environment where price appreciation relies heavily on offshore leverage, without the foundational support of US spot demand, creates conditions that have historically preceded localized corrections. Until the Coinbase Premium neutralizes or turns positive—confirming renewed spot demand—the current market structure may leave over-leveraged long positions vulnerable to sudden deleveraging events.
Written by CryptoOnchain
123
Article
Four Bitcoin Bottoms, One Signal: the 100-Day NUPL Below ZeroBitcoin's NUPL (Net Unrealized Profit/Loss, the share of network market cap sitting in unrealized profit) reads 0.158 today. Smoothed into its 30 and 100-day exponential moving averages (EMAs), it becomes one of the cleanest cycle clocks on-chain. The 100-day EMA sits at 0.215, the 30-day at 0.155. On June 2 the 30-day crossed below the 100-day, and both are now sliding toward zero. Neither has crossed it.
Every time the 100-day EMA of NUPL fell below zero, Bitcoin was carving its cycle bottom: late 2011 (low near $2), January 2015 ($182), the 2018 bear ($3,206 in December 2018), and the 2022 FTX bottom ($15,792 in November 2022). Each dip has been shallower than the one before: -0.58 in 2011, -0.22 in 2015, and about -0.15 in both 2019 and 2022, consistent with a maturing asset. (This four-cycle count uses the 100-day EMA; a simple moving average adds one brief, negligible 2012 dip.) Four cycles is a pattern, not a law.
The current cycle has not printed a negative reading; its low so far is positive. That leaves two paths. Either the 100-day EMA crosses zero as it did at every prior bottom, or this becomes the first cycle to bottom without it, which would fit the shallower-each-time trend. The recent 30-below-100 cross signals fading momentum, not a destination. This is a read on cycle position, not a price target.
The zero line on the 100-day EMA is the level to watch in the coming weeks.
Written by thechessONCHAIN
Four Bitcoin Bottoms, One Signal: the 100-Day NUPL Below Zero
Bitcoin's NUPL (Net Unrealized Profit/Loss, the share of network market cap sitting in unrealized profit) reads 0.158 today. Smoothed into its 30 and 100-day exponential moving averages (EMAs), it becomes one of the cleanest cycle clocks on-chain. The 100-day EMA sits at 0.215, the 30-day at 0.155. On June 2 the 30-day crossed below the 100-day, and both are now sliding toward zero. Neither has crossed it.
Every time the 100-day EMA of NUPL fell below zero, Bitcoin was carving its cycle bottom: late 2011 (low near $2), January 2015 ($182), the 2018 bear ($3,206 in December 2018), and the 2022 FTX bottom ($15,792 in November 2022). Each dip has been shallower than the one before: -0.58 in 2011, -0.22 in 2015, and about -0.15 in both 2019 and 2022, consistent with a maturing asset. (This four-cycle count uses the 100-day EMA; a simple moving average adds one brief, negligible 2012 dip.) Four cycles is a pattern, not a law.
The current cycle has not printed a negative reading; its low so far is positive. That leaves two paths. Either the 100-day EMA crosses zero as it did at every prior bottom, or this becomes the first cycle to bottom without it, which would fit the shallower-each-time trend. The recent 30-below-100 cross signals fading momentum, not a destination. This is a read on cycle position, not a price target.
The zero line on the 100-day EMA is the level to watch in the coming weeks.
Written by thechessONCHAIN
Every time the 100-day EMA of NUPL fell below zero, Bitcoin was carving its cycle bottom: late 2011 (low near $2), January 2015 ($182), the 2018 bear ($3,206 in December 2018), and the 2022 FTX bottom ($15,792 in November 2022). Each dip has been shallower than the one before: -0.58 in 2011, -0.22 in 2015, and about -0.15 in both 2019 and 2022, consistent with a maturing asset. (This four-cycle count uses the 100-day EMA; a simple moving average adds one brief, negligible 2012 dip.) Four cycles is a pattern, not a law.
The current cycle has not printed a negative reading; its low so far is positive. That leaves two paths. Either the 100-day EMA crosses zero as it did at every prior bottom, or this becomes the first cycle to bottom without it, which would fit the shallower-each-time trend. The recent 30-below-100 cross signals fading momentum, not a destination. This is a read on cycle position, not a price target.
The zero line on the 100-day EMA is the level to watch in the coming weeks.
Written by thechessONCHAIN
251
Article
Part 3 | the Future Beyond Bitcoin: How TradFi Equity Perpetuals Could Create a 24/7 Global Finan...In Part 1, we examined the rise of TradFi Equity Perpetuals. In Part 2, we explored why SpaceX became the flagship product of this emerging market. The final question is: where does this trend lead?
As the chart illustrates, Binance's TradFi Equity Perpetual trading volume surged sharply in June 2026, led primarily by SpaceX (SPCX), alongside growing activity in MicroStrategy (MSTR), Circle (CRCL), and Intel (INTC). This is more than a temporary spike—it signals growing demand for accessing traditional assets through crypto-native infrastructure.
At the same time, the financial industry is embracing tokenization. Major institutions such as BlackRock and Franklin Templeton are already developing blockchain-based investment products, viewing digital assets as the foundation of future financial markets rather than a niche innovation.
The next evolution extends beyond equities. ETFs, government bonds, commodities, real estate, and other real-world assets are increasingly expected to become tokenized and traded continuously on blockchain networks.
At XWIN, we believe the future is not about crypto replacing traditional finance, but about traditional finance adopting blockchain infrastructure. By 2030, investors may no longer distinguish between cryptocurrencies, stocks, or bonds—they will simply access global assets through a unified, always-on financial marketplace.
TradFi Equity Perpetuals are not the destination. They are the first visible step toward the next generation of global finance.
Written by XWIN Japan
Part 3 | the Future Beyond Bitcoin: How TradFi Equity Perpetuals Could Create a 24/7 Global Finan...
In Part 1, we examined the rise of TradFi Equity Perpetuals. In Part 2, we explored why SpaceX became the flagship product of this emerging market. The final question is: where does this trend lead?
As the chart illustrates, Binance's TradFi Equity Perpetual trading volume surged sharply in June 2026, led primarily by SpaceX (SPCX), alongside growing activity in MicroStrategy (MSTR), Circle (CRCL), and Intel (INTC). This is more than a temporary spike—it signals growing demand for accessing traditional assets through crypto-native infrastructure.
At the same time, the financial industry is embracing tokenization. Major institutions such as BlackRock and Franklin Templeton are already developing blockchain-based investment products, viewing digital assets as the foundation of future financial markets rather than a niche innovation.
The next evolution extends beyond equities. ETFs, government bonds, commodities, real estate, and other real-world assets are increasingly expected to become tokenized and traded continuously on blockchain networks.
At XWIN, we believe the future is not about crypto replacing traditional finance, but about traditional finance adopting blockchain infrastructure. By 2030, investors may no longer distinguish between cryptocurrencies, stocks, or bonds—they will simply access global assets through a unified, always-on financial marketplace.
TradFi Equity Perpetuals are not the destination. They are the first visible step toward the next generation of global finance.
Written by XWIN Japan
As the chart illustrates, Binance's TradFi Equity Perpetual trading volume surged sharply in June 2026, led primarily by SpaceX (SPCX), alongside growing activity in MicroStrategy (MSTR), Circle (CRCL), and Intel (INTC). This is more than a temporary spike—it signals growing demand for accessing traditional assets through crypto-native infrastructure.
At the same time, the financial industry is embracing tokenization. Major institutions such as BlackRock and Franklin Templeton are already developing blockchain-based investment products, viewing digital assets as the foundation of future financial markets rather than a niche innovation.
The next evolution extends beyond equities. ETFs, government bonds, commodities, real estate, and other real-world assets are increasingly expected to become tokenized and traded continuously on blockchain networks.
At XWIN, we believe the future is not about crypto replacing traditional finance, but about traditional finance adopting blockchain infrastructure. By 2030, investors may no longer distinguish between cryptocurrencies, stocks, or bonds—they will simply access global assets through a unified, always-on financial marketplace.
TradFi Equity Perpetuals are not the destination. They are the first visible step toward the next generation of global finance.
Written by XWIN Japan
1
505
Article
• Is Bitcoin Oversold? Price SMA50 and Supply in Loss ↓1) Jun 30, 2026. BTC: $58K. On the monthly timeframe, while Supply in Loss exceeded 10M BTC, BTC’s price closed below the SMA50 for the first time since its last ATH.
2) Both signals reflect structural pain and suggest that Bitcoin is oversold.
Written by Facundo Fama
• Is Bitcoin Oversold? Price SMA50 and Supply in Loss ↓
1) Jun 30, 2026. BTC: $58K. On the monthly timeframe, while Supply in Loss exceeded 10M BTC, BTC’s price closed below the SMA50 for the first time since its last ATH.
2) Both signals reflect structural pain and suggest that Bitcoin is oversold.
Written by Facundo Fama
2) Both signals reflect structural pain and suggest that Bitcoin is oversold.
Written by Facundo Fama
496
Article
$BTC Fund Flow Ratio Shows Signs of a Mild Recovery From Low LevelsAccording to CryptoQuant data, the Fund Flow Ratio EMA(30) across all exchanges has started to rebound slightly after falling to its lowest level in recent months.
This suggests that the share of $BTC being transferred through exchanges is beginning to improve, reflecting a gradual increase in investor activity on exchanges after a relatively quiet period.
Fund flow activity is showing early signs of recovery, but to confirm that real demand is returning, the Fund Flow Ratio needs to continue rising alongside price and improving spot volume.
Written by Rei Researcher
$BTC Fund Flow Ratio Shows Signs of a Mild Recovery From Low Levels
According to CryptoQuant data, the Fund Flow Ratio EMA(30) across all exchanges has started to rebound slightly after falling to its lowest level in recent months.
This suggests that the share of $BTC being transferred through exchanges is beginning to improve, reflecting a gradual increase in investor activity on exchanges after a relatively quiet period.
Fund flow activity is showing early signs of recovery, but to confirm that real demand is returning, the Fund Flow Ratio needs to continue rising alongside price and improving spot volume.
Written by Rei Researcher
This suggests that the share of $BTC being transferred through exchanges is beginning to improve, reflecting a gradual increase in investor activity on exchanges after a relatively quiet period.
Fund flow activity is showing early signs of recovery, but to confirm that real demand is returning, the Fund Flow Ratio needs to continue rising alongside price and improving spot volume.
Written by Rei Researcher
347
Article
Bitcoin ADX Crossovers: Waiting for the Signal Line to Catch Up Before the Next Trend FiresWhile everyone debates funding rates and open interest, I'm watching something else. ADX crossovers.
Every major trend this cycle started the same way. ADX and Signal Line compress toward the 20-25% zone, cross, and then one of them rips higher. That's the ignition.
Same setup every time. Both lines compress low. Cross. New trend fires.
Right now? ADX came off a big spike and is falling. But the Signal Line hasn't caught up yet. They haven't converged.
Could we see a full-strength trend soon? Maybe. But I'm expecting consolidation until the Signal Line drops to meet ADX at lower levels first. Maybe a week, maybe more.
And I'm saying that not as a signal but as a context. Spikes can still happen anytime, but for a sustainable one this metrics tend to converge before it happens.
The cross is the trigger. We're not there yet 🔥
Written by RugaResearch
Bitcoin ADX Crossovers: Waiting for the Signal Line to Catch Up Before the Next Trend Fires
While everyone debates funding rates and open interest, I'm watching something else. ADX crossovers.
Every major trend this cycle started the same way. ADX and Signal Line compress toward the 20-25% zone, cross, and then one of them rips higher. That's the ignition.
Same setup every time. Both lines compress low. Cross. New trend fires.
Right now? ADX came off a big spike and is falling. But the Signal Line hasn't caught up yet. They haven't converged.
Could we see a full-strength trend soon? Maybe. But I'm expecting consolidation until the Signal Line drops to meet ADX at lower levels first. Maybe a week, maybe more.
And I'm saying that not as a signal but as a context. Spikes can still happen anytime, but for a sustainable one this metrics tend to converge before it happens.
The cross is the trigger. We're not there yet 🔥
Written by RugaResearch
Every major trend this cycle started the same way. ADX and Signal Line compress toward the 20-25% zone, cross, and then one of them rips higher. That's the ignition.
Same setup every time. Both lines compress low. Cross. New trend fires.
Right now? ADX came off a big spike and is falling. But the Signal Line hasn't caught up yet. They haven't converged.
Could we see a full-strength trend soon? Maybe. But I'm expecting consolidation until the Signal Line drops to meet ADX at lower levels first. Maybe a week, maybe more.
And I'm saying that not as a signal but as a context. Spikes can still happen anytime, but for a sustainable one this metrics tend to converge before it happens.
The cross is the trigger. We're not there yet 🔥
Written by RugaResearch
1
462
Article
The Selling Pressure Is Coming From Investors, Not MinersWhen evaluating the chart's Exchange Netflow (+623 BTC), Puell Multiple (0.62), and NUPL (0.16) together, it appears that investors are positioned for potential selling.
The positive Binance Exchange Netflow indicates that more BTC is flowing into Binance than leaving it. This means investors are increasing their Bitcoin balances on the exchange. Considering that Binance is the world's largest liquidity hub, this suggests that the market is currently operating under increased selling pressure.
Meanwhile, miners are not contributing to that pressure. A Puell Multiple of 0.62 indicates that miners' revenues remain below their historical average. Despite lower profitability, miners appear to be holding their coins rather than selling at a loss. This suggests that the primary source of supply entering the market is coming from other investor groups rather than miners.
The NUPL value of 0.16 shows that investors' unrealized profits remain relatively low. This indicates that many market participants are either selling at a loss or with only minimal gains. It also reflects that overall market sentiment is far from euphoric.
Taken together, the data suggests that the most influential factor on price is the increase in BTC being transferred to Binance. At the same time, neither miners nor long-term holders are displaying a level of selling activity strong enough to reinforce that pressure. Overall, investor behavior indicates that sell side liquidity is increasing, but this is not being driven by broad profit taking or heavy miner selling.
Written by PelinayPA
The Selling Pressure Is Coming From Investors, Not Miners
When evaluating the chart's Exchange Netflow (+623 BTC), Puell Multiple (0.62), and NUPL (0.16) together, it appears that investors are positioned for potential selling.
The positive Binance Exchange Netflow indicates that more BTC is flowing into Binance than leaving it. This means investors are increasing their Bitcoin balances on the exchange. Considering that Binance is the world's largest liquidity hub, this suggests that the market is currently operating under increased selling pressure.
Meanwhile, miners are not contributing to that pressure. A Puell Multiple of 0.62 indicates that miners' revenues remain below their historical average. Despite lower profitability, miners appear to be holding their coins rather than selling at a loss. This suggests that the primary source of supply entering the market is coming from other investor groups rather than miners.
The NUPL value of 0.16 shows that investors' unrealized profits remain relatively low. This indicates that many market participants are either selling at a loss or with only minimal gains. It also reflects that overall market sentiment is far from euphoric.
Taken together, the data suggests that the most influential factor on price is the increase in BTC being transferred to Binance. At the same time, neither miners nor long-term holders are displaying a level of selling activity strong enough to reinforce that pressure. Overall, investor behavior indicates that sell side liquidity is increasing, but this is not being driven by broad profit taking or heavy miner selling.
Written by PelinayPA
The positive Binance Exchange Netflow indicates that more BTC is flowing into Binance than leaving it. This means investors are increasing their Bitcoin balances on the exchange. Considering that Binance is the world's largest liquidity hub, this suggests that the market is currently operating under increased selling pressure.
Meanwhile, miners are not contributing to that pressure. A Puell Multiple of 0.62 indicates that miners' revenues remain below their historical average. Despite lower profitability, miners appear to be holding their coins rather than selling at a loss. This suggests that the primary source of supply entering the market is coming from other investor groups rather than miners.
The NUPL value of 0.16 shows that investors' unrealized profits remain relatively low. This indicates that many market participants are either selling at a loss or with only minimal gains. It also reflects that overall market sentiment is far from euphoric.
Taken together, the data suggests that the most influential factor on price is the increase in BTC being transferred to Binance. At the same time, neither miners nor long-term holders are displaying a level of selling activity strong enough to reinforce that pressure. Overall, investor behavior indicates that sell side liquidity is increasing, but this is not being driven by broad profit taking or heavy miner selling.
Written by PelinayPA
1
77
Article
$BTC Funding Rate on Binance Is Rising Again$BTC Funding Rate on Binance has clearly returned to positive territory, currently around 0.0076, while price is still trading at relatively low levels around 62K–63K.
This shows that sentiment in the derivatives market is improving, with traders starting to lean more toward Long positions after an extended period of negative funding.
The reason is that rising positive funding while price has not recovered accordingly may suggest that Long positions are building faster than actual spot buying pressure. If price continues to weaken, these positions could become a source of risk for a long squeeze.
According to CryptoQuant data, sentiment on Binance is becoming less negative, but it is still not enough to confirm a new uptrend.
For $BTC, the next thing to watch is wh
Written by Rei Researcher
$BTC Funding Rate on Binance Is Rising Again
$BTC Funding Rate on Binance has clearly returned to positive territory, currently around 0.0076, while price is still trading at relatively low levels around 62K–63K.
This shows that sentiment in the derivatives market is improving, with traders starting to lean more toward Long positions after an extended period of negative funding.
The reason is that rising positive funding while price has not recovered accordingly may suggest that Long positions are building faster than actual spot buying pressure. If price continues to weaken, these positions could become a source of risk for a long squeeze.
According to CryptoQuant data, sentiment on Binance is becoming less negative, but it is still not enough to confirm a new uptrend.
For $BTC, the next thing to watch is wh
Written by Rei Researcher
This shows that sentiment in the derivatives market is improving, with traders starting to lean more toward Long positions after an extended period of negative funding.
The reason is that rising positive funding while price has not recovered accordingly may suggest that Long positions are building faster than actual spot buying pressure. If price continues to weaken, these positions could become a source of risk for a long squeeze.
According to CryptoQuant data, sentiment on Binance is becoming less negative, but it is still not enough to confirm a new uptrend.
For $BTC, the next thing to watch is wh
Written by Rei Researcher
1
66
Article
Nexo’s Stablecoin Composition: Sustained Growth and Multi-Currency ExpansionERC-20 stablecoin activity across addresses associated with Nexo’s platform has reached new relative highs as of late June 2026, reflecting a sustained expansion in on-chain capital allocation toward the platform. Across 2,383 daily observations spanning late 2019 through June 22, 2026, all figures are presented on a share-of-composition and growth-momentum basis to focus on structural trends rather than absolute balances.
USDC dominates the stablecoin composition at ~60.7% of total balances, followed by USDT at ~33% — together accounting for roughly 94% of all stablecoin engagement. The two assets exhibit a strong correlation of 0.87, confirming that capital movements into Nexo are broad-based rather than driven by a single-token preference.
A particularly notable signal is the acceleration that began in Q4 2025: USDC’s relative balance index roughly doubled between September 2025 and January 2026, marking the steepest sustained inflow phase in the dataset’s history. Momentum readings remained strongly positive through this period before a modest, healthy consolidation in mid-2026.
Beyond the two leaders, DAI maintains a steady ~4.8% share, reflecting consistent engagement from users who favor decentralized, collateral-backed assets. Most striking is the emergence of EURC: effectively absent before October 2025, the euro-denominated stablecoin has rapidly grown to ~1.15% of composition. Notably, EURC correlates strongly with both USDT (0.71) and USDC (0.66), suggesting European user onboarding is moving in lockstep with the platform’s broader growth — a clear sign of geographic diversification.
Taken together, the data depicts an expanding and increasingly diverse user base spanning stablecoin preferences, risk profiles, and currency zones. For a CeFi platform, this depth and breadth of stablecoin engagement is a reliable proxy for platform trust — and Nexo’s current trajectory reflects both.
Written by CryptoOnchain
Nexo’s Stablecoin Composition: Sustained Growth and Multi-Currency Expansion
ERC-20 stablecoin activity across addresses associated with Nexo’s platform has reached new relative highs as of late June 2026, reflecting a sustained expansion in on-chain capital allocation toward the platform. Across 2,383 daily observations spanning late 2019 through June 22, 2026, all figures are presented on a share-of-composition and growth-momentum basis to focus on structural trends rather than absolute balances.
USDC dominates the stablecoin composition at ~60.7% of total balances, followed by USDT at ~33% — together accounting for roughly 94% of all stablecoin engagement. The two assets exhibit a strong correlation of 0.87, confirming that capital movements into Nexo are broad-based rather than driven by a single-token preference.
A particularly notable signal is the acceleration that began in Q4 2025: USDC’s relative balance index roughly doubled between September 2025 and January 2026, marking the steepest sustained inflow phase in the dataset’s history. Momentum readings remained strongly positive through this period before a modest, healthy consolidation in mid-2026.
Beyond the two leaders, DAI maintains a steady ~4.8% share, reflecting consistent engagement from users who favor decentralized, collateral-backed assets. Most striking is the emergence of EURC: effectively absent before October 2025, the euro-denominated stablecoin has rapidly grown to ~1.15% of composition. Notably, EURC correlates strongly with both USDT (0.71) and USDC (0.66), suggesting European user onboarding is moving in lockstep with the platform’s broader growth — a clear sign of geographic diversification.
Taken together, the data depicts an expanding and increasingly diverse user base spanning stablecoin preferences, risk profiles, and currency zones. For a CeFi platform, this depth and breadth of stablecoin engagement is a reliable proxy for platform trust — and Nexo’s current trajectory reflects both.
Written by CryptoOnchain
USDC dominates the stablecoin composition at ~60.7% of total balances, followed by USDT at ~33% — together accounting for roughly 94% of all stablecoin engagement. The two assets exhibit a strong correlation of 0.87, confirming that capital movements into Nexo are broad-based rather than driven by a single-token preference.
A particularly notable signal is the acceleration that began in Q4 2025: USDC’s relative balance index roughly doubled between September 2025 and January 2026, marking the steepest sustained inflow phase in the dataset’s history. Momentum readings remained strongly positive through this period before a modest, healthy consolidation in mid-2026.
Beyond the two leaders, DAI maintains a steady ~4.8% share, reflecting consistent engagement from users who favor decentralized, collateral-backed assets. Most striking is the emergence of EURC: effectively absent before October 2025, the euro-denominated stablecoin has rapidly grown to ~1.15% of composition. Notably, EURC correlates strongly with both USDT (0.71) and USDC (0.66), suggesting European user onboarding is moving in lockstep with the platform’s broader growth — a clear sign of geographic diversification.
Taken together, the data depicts an expanding and increasingly diverse user base spanning stablecoin preferences, risk profiles, and currency zones. For a CeFi platform, this depth and breadth of stablecoin engagement is a reliable proxy for platform trust — and Nexo’s current trajectory reflects both.
Written by CryptoOnchain
872
Article
Eth Short Liquidations Hit Their Highest Level Since 2022ETH has seen a significant decline in Open Interest since the October 2025 highs. It dropped from a record $33.9B to $11.2B, showing just how hard this correction hit traders who keep taking on excessive risk.
Falling from ~$3,200 to ~$1,500 over the period, this ETH price decline triggered a notable volume of liquidations on Binance, and continues to do so.
This chart illustrates these liquidations as bubbles, making it easy to see whether long or short liquidations dominated and the size of the volumes involved.
This allows for an at a glance comparison.
We can observe that at the end of June, the size of long liquidation volumes on Binance was comparable to those seen on October 10th.
Now, with this slight rebound in early July, shorts have dominated liquidation volumes on Binance, particularly on July 2nd.
These are the largest short liquidations since 2022.
These dynamics clearly illustrate investor impatience in a market that’s currently moving very little. Some choose to add heavy leverage to their positions to try to profit from low volatility, and often get caught out by this poorly managed risk taking.
Written by Darkfost
Eth Short Liquidations Hit Their Highest Level Since 2022
ETH has seen a significant decline in Open Interest since the October 2025 highs. It dropped from a record $33.9B to $11.2B, showing just how hard this correction hit traders who keep taking on excessive risk.
Falling from ~$3,200 to ~$1,500 over the period, this ETH price decline triggered a notable volume of liquidations on Binance, and continues to do so.
This chart illustrates these liquidations as bubbles, making it easy to see whether long or short liquidations dominated and the size of the volumes involved.
This allows for an at a glance comparison.
We can observe that at the end of June, the size of long liquidation volumes on Binance was comparable to those seen on October 10th.
Now, with this slight rebound in early July, shorts have dominated liquidation volumes on Binance, particularly on July 2nd.
These are the largest short liquidations since 2022.
These dynamics clearly illustrate investor impatience in a market that’s currently moving very little. Some choose to add heavy leverage to their positions to try to profit from low volatility, and often get caught out by this poorly managed risk taking.
Written by Darkfost
Falling from ~$3,200 to ~$1,500 over the period, this ETH price decline triggered a notable volume of liquidations on Binance, and continues to do so.
This chart illustrates these liquidations as bubbles, making it easy to see whether long or short liquidations dominated and the size of the volumes involved.
This allows for an at a glance comparison.
We can observe that at the end of June, the size of long liquidation volumes on Binance was comparable to those seen on October 10th.
Now, with this slight rebound in early July, shorts have dominated liquidation volumes on Binance, particularly on July 2nd.
These are the largest short liquidations since 2022.
These dynamics clearly illustrate investor impatience in a market that’s currently moving very little. Some choose to add heavy leverage to their positions to try to profit from low volatility, and often get caught out by this poorly managed risk taking.
Written by Darkfost
1
1
1.9k
Partly True
Article
Binance XRP Scarcity Index Hits Its Highest Level Since Mid-2024Data from the Binance XRP Scarcity Index shows the index rising to approximately 0.77 over the past three days, reaching its highest level since mid-2024, while XRP is trading near $1.10. This increase reflects a significant shift in supply dynamics on the Binance platform, with the coin's availability declining compared to previous periods, pushing the scarcity index to its highest level in over a year.
The data indicates that the index experienced a prolonged period of relative stability before beginning a clear upward trend in recent weeks, while the price of XRP has not increased at the same pace. This suggests that the current change is not solely related to price action but may also stem from a decline in the tradable supply on the platform, whether due to lower deposit activity or increased withdrawals and off-exchange holdings.
A rising scarcity index often indicates reduced potential selling pressure, as the amount of XRP available for sale on the platform becomes smaller than in previous periods. However, this indicator alone does not definitively signal the continuation of an upward trend. The key factor determining whether XRP extends its gains will be the strength of market demand in the coming period. If demand strengthens while supply remains limited, the current scarcity could support further upside.
The Binance XRP Scarcity Index reaching its highest level since mid-2024 reflects a structural shift in the supply balance on Binance, indicating that XRP has become scarcer on the platform than in previous months.
Written by Arab Chain
Binance XRP Scarcity Index Hits Its Highest Level Since Mid-2024
Data from the Binance XRP Scarcity Index shows the index rising to approximately 0.77 over the past three days, reaching its highest level since mid-2024, while XRP is trading near $1.10. This increase reflects a significant shift in supply dynamics on the Binance platform, with the coin's availability declining compared to previous periods, pushing the scarcity index to its highest level in over a year.
The data indicates that the index experienced a prolonged period of relative stability before beginning a clear upward trend in recent weeks, while the price of XRP has not increased at the same pace. This suggests that the current change is not solely related to price action but may also stem from a decline in the tradable supply on the platform, whether due to lower deposit activity or increased withdrawals and off-exchange holdings.
A rising scarcity index often indicates reduced potential selling pressure, as the amount of XRP available for sale on the platform becomes smaller than in previous periods. However, this indicator alone does not definitively signal the continuation of an upward trend. The key factor determining whether XRP extends its gains will be the strength of market demand in the coming period. If demand strengthens while supply remains limited, the current scarcity could support further upside.
The Binance XRP Scarcity Index reaching its highest level since mid-2024 reflects a structural shift in the supply balance on Binance, indicating that XRP has become scarcer on the platform than in previous months.
Written by Arab Chain
The data indicates that the index experienced a prolonged period of relative stability before beginning a clear upward trend in recent weeks, while the price of XRP has not increased at the same pace. This suggests that the current change is not solely related to price action but may also stem from a decline in the tradable supply on the platform, whether due to lower deposit activity or increased withdrawals and off-exchange holdings.
A rising scarcity index often indicates reduced potential selling pressure, as the amount of XRP available for sale on the platform becomes smaller than in previous periods. However, this indicator alone does not definitively signal the continuation of an upward trend. The key factor determining whether XRP extends its gains will be the strength of market demand in the coming period. If demand strengthens while supply remains limited, the current scarcity could support further upside.
The Binance XRP Scarcity Index reaching its highest level since mid-2024 reflects a structural shift in the supply balance on Binance, indicating that XRP has become scarcer on the platform than in previous months.
Written by Arab Chain
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Bitcoin Whale Inflows to Binance Plunge 34% Since June 12, Falling Nearly Twice As Fast As Retail...Bitcoin whale activity on Binance has cooled sharply since mid-June, with the rolling 30-day value of whale inflows falling by nearly $2.4 billion.
Binance Whale to Exchange Flow chart shows whale inflows declining from $7.04 billion on June 12 to $4.65 billion on July 6—a $2.39 billion, or roughly 34%, decrease.
Retail inflows also moved lower over the same period, dropping from $10.02 billion to $8.20 billion.
However, the $1.82 billion decline, equal to about 18%, was notably smaller than the pullback seen among larger holders.
The divergence suggests that major BTC holders have reduced their transfers to Binance at a much faster pace than smaller investors. Whale inflows fell at nearly twice the rate of retail inflows, reducing the relative role of large holders in exchange-bound Bitcoin supply.
Meanwhile, the gap between retail and whale inflows widened from about $2.98 billion to $3.55 billion.
Transfers to an exchange do not automatically mean Bitcoin will be sold. Still, lower whale inflows can signal that fewer large holders are moving coins into a venue where they can be traded or liquidated. That may reduce a potential source of exchange-side selling pressure.
The key question now is whether Binance whale inflows stabilize around the current $4.65 billion level or continue moving lower. A further decline would reinforce the view that large Bitcoin holders are becoming less active on the exchange compared with the retail cohort.
Written by Amr Taha
Bitcoin Whale Inflows to Binance Plunge 34% Since June 12, Falling Nearly Twice As Fast As Retail...
Bitcoin whale activity on Binance has cooled sharply since mid-June, with the rolling 30-day value of whale inflows falling by nearly $2.4 billion.
Binance Whale to Exchange Flow chart shows whale inflows declining from $7.04 billion on June 12 to $4.65 billion on July 6—a $2.39 billion, or roughly 34%, decrease.
Retail inflows also moved lower over the same period, dropping from $10.02 billion to $8.20 billion.
However, the $1.82 billion decline, equal to about 18%, was notably smaller than the pullback seen among larger holders.
The divergence suggests that major BTC holders have reduced their transfers to Binance at a much faster pace than smaller investors. Whale inflows fell at nearly twice the rate of retail inflows, reducing the relative role of large holders in exchange-bound Bitcoin supply.
Meanwhile, the gap between retail and whale inflows widened from about $2.98 billion to $3.55 billion.
Transfers to an exchange do not automatically mean Bitcoin will be sold. Still, lower whale inflows can signal that fewer large holders are moving coins into a venue where they can be traded or liquidated. That may reduce a potential source of exchange-side selling pressure.
The key question now is whether Binance whale inflows stabilize around the current $4.65 billion level or continue moving lower. A further decline would reinforce the view that large Bitcoin holders are becoming less active on the exchange compared with the retail cohort.
Written by Amr Taha
Binance Whale to Exchange Flow chart shows whale inflows declining from $7.04 billion on June 12 to $4.65 billion on July 6—a $2.39 billion, or roughly 34%, decrease.
Retail inflows also moved lower over the same period, dropping from $10.02 billion to $8.20 billion.
However, the $1.82 billion decline, equal to about 18%, was notably smaller than the pullback seen among larger holders.
The divergence suggests that major BTC holders have reduced their transfers to Binance at a much faster pace than smaller investors. Whale inflows fell at nearly twice the rate of retail inflows, reducing the relative role of large holders in exchange-bound Bitcoin supply.
Meanwhile, the gap between retail and whale inflows widened from about $2.98 billion to $3.55 billion.
Transfers to an exchange do not automatically mean Bitcoin will be sold. Still, lower whale inflows can signal that fewer large holders are moving coins into a venue where they can be traded or liquidated. That may reduce a potential source of exchange-side selling pressure.
The key question now is whether Binance whale inflows stabilize around the current $4.65 billion level or continue moving lower. A further decline would reinforce the view that large Bitcoin holders are becoming less active on the exchange compared with the retail cohort.
Written by Amr Taha
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