但是说真的,BTC这波走势有点离谱。从4月初的68000-69000一路磨上来,CPI数据出来当天反而拉到72400,现在更是站上了73000附近。逻辑是什么?我觉得有两个:一是美伊停火协议带来的风险偏好修复,纳指一周涨了4%以上,BTC跟着吃了一波情绪红利;二是通胀数据虽然吓人,但市场已经在price in"higher for longer"了,BTC作为抗通胀叙事反而被一部分资金追捧。ETH也跟着动了,站到2250附近,24h交易量82亿美金,不算特别猛但也不冷。
Why are more and more people convinced that Bitcoin’s importance will continue to rise? The Strait of Hormuz is one of the world's most critical oil chokepoints; approximately 20% of the world's oil passes through here. If a "transit fee" were ever imposed—even at just $1 per barrel—based on a daily flow of 20 million barrels, that would total $20 million per day. If you convert that amount into BTC, it’s roughly 281 BTC per day. The key point isn’t the number itself, but the comparison it draws: Bitcoin’s new daily supply is currently only about 450 BTC. In other words, if a massive real-world settlement scenario like the Strait of Hormuz were to emerge, the transit fees from just a single strait could theoretically absorb 62% of Bitcoin’s daily new supply. What this chart is really trying to convey isn’t that this "will definitely happen," but rather: as long as the real world sees large-scale, continuous, and cross-border capital flows that require neutral settlement, Bitcoin’s total volume is actually much smaller than people imagine. This is also why the chart mentions: if stablecoins can be frozen by the U.S., then the importance of neutral settlement assets will be repriced. Many used to view BTC as a speculative asset. But from another perspective, it may be "pricing in" future global friction, capital controls, and settlement risks. In other words: BTC isn't necessarily rising because people "love" it more; it’s rising because the world increasingly needs an asset that cannot be easily frozen by a single point of failure. #霍尔木兹海峡再次关闭 $BTC