The $TOTAL Crypto Market Cap is holding on to the April lows from last year for now.
This is a pretty key area for the market to hold as below this point is a pretty large void down. Losing this current area would almost certainly result in a retest of the local lows at the very least.
🔥 A CryptoQuant analyst says Coinbase’s negative premium gap has reached its longest stretch since November 2024, signaling continued selling pressure from US-based traders.
“You gotta win the midterms. Because if we don't win the midterms, I'll get impeached.”
That line says the quiet part out loud.
This isn’t about policy. It’s about survival math.
What he’s admitting, plainly: - Control of Congress means protection - Lose the House means investigations, subpoenas, impeachment risk - Midterms aren’t a referendum on the economy they’re a shield
And here’s why markets care: - Policy decisions get shaped by political self-preservation - Volatility increases when governance becomes defensive - Short-term moves get prioritized over long-term stability
It’s rare to hear it said this directly.
But this is the reality: politics drives policy, and policy drives markets especially in fragile conditions.
1. Iranian officials confirmed that the second round of US-Iran talks will be held on Tuesday.
2. British media: Iran will consider making concessions on nuclear negotiations if the US is willing to lift sanctions.
Influenced by the above news, we need to pay attention to the downward trend of gold prices on Monday. #gold 👉If gold opens at $5000 on Monday, or corrects to around $4950, then this is a potential buying opportunity.
Pay attention to news developments in the new week.
↗️ The price of AVAX has formed an upward structure and may continue to grow. But before that, manipulation is possible in order to test the FVG 4h zone in the range of $8.91 - $9.10. If the price holds this zone during the correction, the next target for growth will be liquidity above the $10 level.
Following strong selling pressure, ETH staged a comeback, rising 5.8% and officially surpassing the crucial psychological threshold of $2,000.
🍒This momentum largely stemmed from Spot ETFs ending their "bleeding" streak and beginning to inject net funds of approximately $10.26 million on February 13th.
In a bear market, the key is to take your time. Unlike bull markets, where reversals happen quickly, bearish phases last for months and don't end abruptly.
Looking at the bigger picture, rather than just daily fluctuations, the picture remains weak. Despite some positive ETF days, the cumulative net flow over the last 10 trading days remains negative (around -18,000 BTC). This means there's no sustainable demand yet.
A reversal doesn't start with a single strong day, but with a systematic return of capital to the market. Until that happens, upward movements look more like noise within a bear market.
BTC has been in its current drawdown for over four months, having lost more than 50% from its October peak. This isn't unique by BTC standards. But when a drawdown exceeds 100 days, history shows that recovery usually takes months, and sometimes years, not weeks.
Can analysis predict both rises and falls? Or do analytical tools only predict rises? In other words, why didn't most analysts who were certain of a rise for Bitcoin predict the crash from its peak of $126,000?
Answer: Technical analysis (on charts) is not a crystal ball that reveals the future, but rather a science built on probabilities and scenarios. They say that probabilities that have happened before might happen again now.
Regarding predicting rises and falls, there's something called "confirmation bias." This means that analysts are psychologically inclined towards a rise because society loves positive news and posts. For example, "The time for the great rise has come..." "The bull market has begun..." "The decline is over, and now the upward explosions will begin..." "Bitcoin is headed to $250,000 tomorrow at 9:00 PM Flat Earth Time," and so on with other fantastical positive predictions.
This human bias leads analysts (most, but not all) to ignore clear downward signals (on the ground) and cling only to the scribbles on the charts.
Regarding Bitcoin reaching a peak of $126,000, the prevailing excessive optimism within the community (led by analysts) at this stage is causing them to ignore realistic indicators that warn of a potential downturn or impending danger.
Ethereum Founder Vitalik Butterin says prediction markets are addicted to dopamine, not real info.
Vitalik’s critique isn’t about banning prediction markets. It’s about design. Right now, shallow bets dominate, so traders chase thrill instead of value. Well-structured markets could actually surface real signals, not just short-term swings. Understanding the mechanics matters.
Not all prediction markets are equal. Many reward fast clicks over thoughtful analysis. Vitalik’s warning is a reminder that design shapes behavior. Users should know what the platform incentivizes: insight or instant gratification. The difference changes how markets show reality.
2025 Non-farm payrolls revision: -862,000 (worst since 2009)
Large bankruptcies: Worst since 2009
Credit card delinquencies: Worst since 2011
Vacancy-to-unemployed ratio: Worst since pandemic
Housing market buyers vs. sellers: Worst ever
But according to the Fed, every aspect of the economy is strong, and the only concern is inflation.
The Federal Reserve is not describing the economy; it is managing expectations to prevent a liquidity cascade. The 2025 benchmark revision of -862,000 payrolls confirms that resilience was a statistical mirage. When large bankruptcies hit 2009 levels and credit card delinquencies surpass a year peak, the lag effect of restrictive policy is no longer a risk it is the current reality. Sustaining a hawkish bias while core CPI hits a 5year low is not a strategy; it is a policy error in real-time.
Experienced Analyst Makes Bold Claim: “If This Happens, Bitcoin Will See a Rally”
Analyst James Van Straten claims that a development that could trigger a new rally in Bitcoin may be on the way.
In the cryptocurrency markets, attention has turned to a proposed technical update aimed at increasing the Bitcoin network’s resilience against quantum computers. Some analysts in the sector argue that an agreement on this could trigger a sharp revaluation of prices.
James Van Straten, a senior analyst at the cryptocurrency exchange Bullish, commented on the Bitcoin Improvement Proposal 360 (BIP-360). Straten stated that after the Bitcoin price dropped to the $60,000 level, the industry began to take the potential threats posed by quantum computing more seriously. He described this increased awareness as a “welcome development.”
According to Straten, if a network-wide consensus is reached on a quantum-resistant solution, markets could see a dramatic price revaluation of between 50% and 100% within weeks. The analyst stated that reducing technical risks could boost investor confidence, which in turn could pave the way for a strong upward price movement.
However, Straten pointed out that this process also carries potential risks. In particular, he said that uncertainties regarding the fate of Bitcoins believed to belong to Satoshi Nakamoto and which have been inactive for a long time could create volatility in the market. The potential activity of such old wallets could be decisive in investor psychology.
As previously reported, Bitcoin Improvement Proposal 360 (BIP-360) has been added to the official codebase. The proposal aims to introduce a new output type called Pay-to-Merkle-Root (P2MR). With this planned soft fork, the goal is to strengthen the Bitcoin network’s defenses against potential cryptographic threats from quantum computers in the future.
The price of NEAR has gathered liquidity from its previous low and is approaching the psychological level of $1. If the price manages to break through this level and consolidate above it, the upward movement will continue. The main target for price growth is liquidity above the $1.1 level.