Nicolas Samui

I think it's worth analyzing this signal carefully, because we're seeing patterns that historically only appear during major crises.

First, the technical facts are striking.

The logarithmic uptrend line on the BTC/Gold ratio, intact since 2019, just broke down.

This is unusual, especially given the temporal repetition we've observed in previous cycles.

The ratio just dropped below its 200-day moving average (IN RED), something that historically only happened during extreme bear market phases.

Specifically, this occurred during the COVID crash and during the Terra/Luna crisis.

This means we're seeing a breakdown signal that previously only appeared during capitulation events.

But here's what makes this situation abnormal: we haven't experienced any comparable major capitulation event yet.

No exchange collapse, no major protocol failure, no panic selling climax.

The ratio is signaling crisis-level stress without the typical crisis trigger.

The RSI on this ratio sits at 27.71, near the lowest levels since 2015, indicating rare oversold conditions.

If we project forward, a return of the ratio toward 9 would mechanically imply Bitcoin around $47,205.

This would correspond to a zone of marked macro stress and serious risk-off sentiment.

So what does this actually mean for positioning?

Two possible interpretations exist, and they lead to very different outcomes.

- Scenario one: this is a temporary anomaly caused by gold's exceptional rally driven by central bank buying and de-dollarization, while #bitcoin consolidates after its ETF-driven surge.

The ratio reverts, Bitcoin catches up to gold, and we continue the cycle normally.

- Scenario two: this is an early warning signal of a broader macro event coming.

The ratio is front-running a crisis that markets haven't fully priced yet, whether it's a geopolitical shock, a Fed policy mistake, or a liquidity crunch.

The fact that we're seeing crisis-level technical signals without a crisis is what makes this setup so critical to monitor.

Either we're witnessing an unprecedented divergence that will snap back violently, or the ratio is telling us something the headlines haven't caught up to yet.

For traders, this means managing risk carefully.

The ratio is at historically extreme levels that have preceded either massive reversals or continued deterioration into full bear markets.

Watch this signal closely in the coming weeks, because its resolution will likely define the next major move across all risk assets.

WHY ARE central banks dumping US debt for gold instead of Bitcoin, AND WHAT does this reveal about BTC's true geopolitical position?
I think it's worth exploring this dynamic, because it challenges the common "Bitcoin vs Gold" narrative.
First, the facts are clear.
Central banks worldwide, especially China, Russia, and emerging markets, are actively reducing their Treasury holdings and massively accumulating gold.
Gold is politically neutral, non-seizable, and accepted by all geopolitical blocs.
This means gold serves as the perfect hedge against the dollar system without pledging allegiance to any power.
Now here's where Bitcoin's position gets interesting.
Despite being theoretically decentralized, BTC is deeply embedded in the US financial ecosystem.
The narrative is Western, regulation is US-dominated, custody solutions are run by BlackRock and Fidelity, and much of the infrastructure is American-controlled.
For a central bank trying to escape dollar hegemony, buying Bitcoin means strengthening an asset controlled by their geopolitical adversary.
This explains why they choose gold over BTC, even though Bitcoin offers superior monetary properties.
But here's the nuance most people miss.
Bitcoin operates on two competing narratives simultaneously.
Short-term, it acts as a risk asset tied to US liquidity and Fed policy.
When American financial power rises, BTC benefits from capital flows and institutional adoption.
Long-term, it represents an escape from the entire fiat system. If the dollar-based order collapses, Bitcoin's non-sovereign nature becomes its ultimate strength.
So what does US geopolitical expansion mean for Bitcoin?
Moves like potential Greenland control signal American strategic dominance, which supports BTC through increased liquidity and market confidence.
But if Europe pivots toward China and away from the US bloc, weakening American influence could hurt Bitcoin in the short term while potentially strengthening its long-term anti-fiat narrative.
It's not as simple as "US power up = BTC up."
Bitcoin exists in a paradox where it benefits from American financial strength today while promising freedom from that very system tomorrow.
#GOLD #BTC #USA