律动BlockBeats

BlockBeats 消息，7 月 14 日，晨星分析师 Jing Jie Yu 表示，该行维持 SK 海力士每份 ADR 公允价值估计为 160 美元，经评估长期周期性风险后，认为估值处于合理水平。SK 海力士计划将此次上市募集的 40 万亿韩元用于未来晶圆厂投资。不过此次上市的主要目的在于提升估值，并非解决迫切的融资需求。韩国存储芯片企业的估值倍数长期低于美国同行，而 SK 海力士现有现金预计已足以满足投资需求。
晨星预计，SK 海力士 2026 年和 2027 年的税息折旧及摊销前利润（EBITDA）将分别达到 317 万亿韩元和 474 万亿韩元，远高于此次募资规模。晨星认为存储芯片制造商的盈利走势高度难以预测，SK 海力士 ADR 及韩国上市股票可能继续大幅波动，因此维持对该公司「极高不确定性」的评级。

BlockBeats message: On July 14, according to on-chain analyst Ai Yi (@ai_9684xtpa), Binance contract “smart money” using “Yu Yu m” is going long on contracts related to SK Hynix. The position is currently in unrealized loss of $2.091 million, topping the near-3-day unrealized loss leaderboard. On-chain data shows it holds 7,462.68 SKHX (about $11.03 million). Its average opening price is $1,477.89, with an unrealized loss of $1.954 million. It also holds 25,733.63 SKHY (about $4.045 million), with an average opening price of $157.22 and an unrealized loss of $137,000.
Although the cumulative unrealized loss is currently over $2.09 million, there is sufficient margin. The liquidation prices for its SKHX and SKHY positions are $756 and $27.59, respectively, so there is no risk of liquidation in the short term.

TL;DR
• Federal Reserve Governor Waller said that if core inflation heats up again this week, the FOMC needs to consider tightening policy in the near term.
• Markets are focused on whether rate hikes are re-entering the fight for the baseline scenario from tail risk.
• Related instruments: BTC, ETH, the Nasdaq, the U.S. Dollar Index, Treasury yields, and federal funds rate futures.
Federal Reserve Governor Waller said in a speech to the New York Association of Business Economists on July 13 that if the core inflation data released this week is again hotter than expected, the FOMC would need to consider tightening monetary policy again in the near term.
According to Reuters, Waller’s remarks came a day before the June CPI release. The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics schedule shows that the June CPI is set to be published at 8:30 a.m. ET on July 14. For risk assets, the data becomes a test of the policy path: will the Federal Reserve continue waiting for inflation to cool, or will rate hikes be put back on the table?

BlockBeats report, July 14: According to a survey by overseas media, economists expect the Bank of Korea to implement its first rate hike in more than three years on Thursday, with another hike expected before year-end. South Korea’s June inflation rate rose to 3.2%, the highest in more than two and a half years, and has remained above the Bank of Korea’s 2% target for the fourth consecutive month. Inflation is expected to average around 3% in the second half of this year, paving the way for the start of a tightening cycle. Strong economic growth, rising house prices, and persistently high household debt give policymakers room to tighten policy.
South Korea’s first-quarter economy grew at nearly the fastest pace in six years, according to a report. Bank of Korea Governor Shin Hyeon-sook said that given that conflicts in the Middle East have pushed oil prices higher, inflation is expected to remain above the Bank of Korea’s target for quite some time, making it necessary to raise interest rates. In a survey conducted from July 7 to 13, among 37 economists, all but one expected the Bank of Korea to increase the policy rate to 2.75% on July 16. Most of the economists polled (28 out of 31) expected one more rate hike before the end of the fourth quarter, taking the policy rate to 3.00%. One economist predicted the policy rate would reach 3.25%, while the other two expected it to stay at 2.75%. The median forecast showed that the Bank of Korea would raise the policy rate to 3.25% in the first quarter of 2027 and keep it at that level through at least the end of next year, which is 25 basis points higher than the forecast in the May survey.

BlockBeats message. On July 14, SemiAnalysis analyst Ray Wang said in a CNBC interview yesterday that demand for HBM in 2026 is extremely strong, to the extent that Samsung and SK hynix have been continuously shifting wafer production capacity toward HBM and cutting back on investments in standard DRAM—even though current standard DRAM has higher price-to-profit margins.
Ray Wang believes that amid a shortage of supply in the HBM market, both Korean manufacturers will convert all their HBM output into profit. Therefore, Samsung gaining HBM market share does not necessarily mean SK hynix is harmed. The limiting factor is wafer production capacity, not market demand.

Original title: The New American Dream: Democratising Investing
Original source: Master Investor
Original translation: Azuma, Odaily Planet Daily
Editor’s note: Robinhood recently launched Robinhood Chain. Based on this network, a new wave of Meme hype has reignited the long-dormant crypto market, and it has even been seen by some upbeat investors as the beginning of the next industry cycle.
Last week, Vlad Tenev, founder and CEO of Robinhood, took part in the Master Investor podcast. In the episode, Vlad Tenev outlined Robinhood’s development history and its path to success. He talked from meme stocks to meme tokens, looked ahead to the tokenization of assets and the investment value of private equity markets, and emphasized that “retail investors are the real smart money.”

Trump has hung a 20% toll sign on the Strait of Hormuz, and oil prices jumped 9%. Waller ranks AI infrastructure and the Middle East war as new drivers of inflation for the Federal Reserve.
1｜Trump restarts the Iran blockade and imposes a 20% Hormuz transit toll, oil prices jump 9%
Trump announced the reimposition of a maritime blockade on Iran and for the first time demanded that ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz pay a 20% toll. The U.S. Navy will begin carrying out the blockade at around 12:00 a.m. Beijing time on July 15. Oil prices jumped by about 9% to $83 per barrel. The national average gas price is nearing $4 per gallon.

BlockBeats message, July 14, last night, SemiAnalysis released a bullish research report on Micron's? (Hynix). In the report, SemiAnalysis said that its positive view on SK Hynix’s 2Q26 DRAM performance has not changed. It forecasts blended DRAM ASP (average selling price) to grow month over month by about 45%. Operating profit for RAM is about 550 trillion won. The report specifically pointed out, “We understand investors’ concerns about volatility in memory stocks in the near term, but we still believe SK Hynix and other leading memory companies offer some of the best risk-reward opportunities in the semiconductor industry.”