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$SUI just ripped straight into the primary supply zone. A relief rally of this magnitude is textbook behavior following such a prolonged downside extension.
Having perfectly captured the macro move from $0.97 to $1.40, I am under zero pressure to chase this current price action. A single isolated spike does not constitute a structural trend reversal.
The thesis becomes active again only upon a clean reclaim and consolidation above $1.16. Until that level flips from resistance to firm support, risk management dictates patience. I'm content to sit on the sidelines and let the market prove itself.
Technical Logic (The Good)
Market Structure: Looking for a higher low formation on the 4H timefram
Technical Logic (The Good) Market Structure: Looking for a higher low formation on the 4H timeframe after a corrective move is a standard, high-probability trend-continuation strategy. Support Defense: The 76,000–76,500 zone acts as a solid psychological and technical floor. Entering slightly above this (77,500) catches the momentum shift. Trigger Point: You correctly identified 78,000 as the key resistance. Breaking and holding above TP2 validates the macro expansion toward your TP3 target. 2. Leverage & Margin Risk (The Dangerous) Liquidation Closeness: At 20x leverage, your liquidation price will sit roughly 4.5% to 5 The Math: Entry: $77,575 (midpoint) Stop Loss: $77,000 Price Drop to SL: -0.74\% Loss at 20x Leverage: -14.8\% (excluding fees) The Verdict: Because you chose Isolated Margin, your total account balance is protected, which is excellent. However, a 0.74% drop is standard noise for Bitcoin. A minor wick down could trigger your SL before the market reverses upward. 3. Risk-to-Reward (R:R) Ratio If you manage to hold the position through the volatility to the final target: Risk: 575 points (Entry to SL) Max Reward (TP3): 11,015 points (Entry to TP3) R:R Ratio: ~1:19 ⚠️ Note: While a 1:19 R:R is mathematically phenomenal, jumping from TP2 ($78,000) to TP3 ($88,590) is a massive 13.5% spot move. You will need to actively manage this trade, trailing your stop-loss into profit once TP1 and TP2 are hit to protect your capital. 🛠️ Recommended Adjustments Scale In: Don't throw the entire position size in at 77,650. Set limit orders across the entry zone (e.g., 50% at 77,650 and 50% at 77,500) to optimize your average entry price. Aggressive Partial Takes: Because 20x leverage compounds volatility, take a significant portion of profits (e.g., 30–40%) at TP1 and TP2, and immediately move your Stop Loss to break-even. Watch out for "Stop Hunting": Crypto markets love to sweep liquidity just below local lows. A stop at exactly 77,000 is a target for market makers. Consider lowering position size slightly and widening the stop to 76,450 (just below the 4H higher low structure) to give the trade room to breathe. Your closing advice to yourself is spot on—protecting capital is the number one priority. Stick to your execution plan and don't let emotions dictate the trade if the 4H candle breaks below 77,000. Good luck, let's see how the 4H candle closes! 🚀