Muhammad Waris 06

Peter Schiff has spent over a decade predicting Bitcoin’s demise. So when he says the next stop is $75,000, the instinct for many crypto natives is to dismiss it outright. But this time, the call deserves a closer look not because Schiff has suddenly become a reliable oracle, but because the number he chose tells a story about how much the market has already changed, and what structural risks remain beneath the surface.
The Context: Bitcoin Already Broke $80K
Schiff’s warning came as Bitcoin slipped below the $80,000 mark on Saturday, October 24, trading as low as roughly $79,146 before settling near $80,300 . The drop represents a roughly one third decline from its 52-week high near $116,000 . In Schiff’s words: “Now that it’s below $80K, the next stop is likely $75K” .
The selloff was not merely a psychological milestone. Over $800 million in crypto positions were liquidated in roughly a day, with long positions accounting for the bulk of forced closures . U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded approximately $635.6 million in net outflows over the week, led by BlackRock’s IBIT and Fidelity’s FBTC .
Why $75,000 Is Not the “Doom” It Sounds Like
For years, Schiff’s Bitcoin target was effectively zero. He compared it to tulip mania at $350, called it a bubble at $20,000, and insisted on its inevitable collapse even as Bitcoin crossed $100,000 in December 2024 . A $75,000 target from Schiff is, paradoxically, a concession. It sits only about seven percent below a market that has already fallen roughly 31% from its peak .
More importantly, $75,000 aligns with technical and structural levels that independent analysts are watching not because Schiff said so, but because the data converges there.
Coinbase Institutional identified $80,000 $82,000 as key near-term support, anchored by the ETF cost basis near $81,300 and the 50-day moving average. If that zone fails, Coinbase’s strategists see the next support near $73,000 $75,000 . Blockchain.news data showed Bitcoin trading below all five short-term moving averages at the time of Schiff’s call, with the 200-day SMA sitting near $72,942 just below Schiff’s target .
In other words, Schiff picked a number that the market itself had already flagged as a plausible downside zone. That does not make it inevitable, but it makes it harder to dismiss as pure contrarianism.
The ETF Liquidity Trap Schiff Is Pointing At
The sharpest part of Schiff’s warning was not the price target itself, but his observation about who gets hurt and when. “A very long weekend for Bitcoiners,” he said, “especially for ETF investors who can’t sell until Monday” .
This is a structural critique that deserves serious attention. Bitcoin trades 24/7. U.S. listed spot Bitcoin ETFs do not. An investor holding IBIT or FBTC cannot react to a weekend crash until the market reopens on Monday. By then, the damage may already be done. For anyone using ETFs as their primary Bitcoin exposure a group that has grown substantially—this creates an asymmetry: they bear the downside of continuous trading without the ability to act on it.
Schiff also noted that a fall to $75,000 would narrow Strategy’s paper gains. Strategy holds over 640,000 BTC at an average cost of roughly $73,981, meaning $75,000 would leave only about $1,019 per coin in cushion before other considerations . The claim that it would “erase” Strategy’s gains is technically overstated, but the broader point that the most visible corporate holder’s margin for error is thinning is not unreasonable.
The Credibility Problem Cuts Both Ways
None of this makes Schiff a trustworthy forecaster. His track record is a graveyard of missed calls, each more extreme than the last . When someone has predicted zero for over a decade, a $75,000 target looks less like prescience and more like a reluctant adjustment to reality.
But the inverse is also true: dismissing a warning solely because of the messenger is its own form of bias. The $75,000 level is not Schiff’s invention. It is a zone where ETF cost bases, moving averages, and institutional support estimates overlap . The macro backdrop hot producer prices, rising odds of a December rate hike, and weakening demand from corporate treasuries as ETFs take over as the marginal buyer is genuinely challenging for risk assets .
What to Watch
The immediate question is whether $80,000 holds. If it does, Schiff’s call joins the long list of premature obituaries. If it fails, the $73,000-$75,000 zone becomes the next real test—not because Schiff predicted it, but because that is where the market’s structural supports sit.
For ETF holders, Schiff’s weekend warning is a reminder that convenience has a cost. Bitcoin never sleeps. Your brokerage account does. That gap is worth understanding, regardless of what happens next.
$BTC
#BTCNextMove

İki fərqli dominatlıq göstəricisi əks istiqamətlərdə dəyişir və bu fərq əsl mənzərəni ortaya qoyur.
2026-cı ilin oktyabr ayının sonlarına olan məlumata görə, kriptovalyuta bazarı zahirən yüksəliş siqnalı verir: həm Bitcoin-in, həm də USDT-nin bazar payı azalır. Tarixən stabilkoinlərin bazar payının azalması “gözləyən kapitalın bazara daxil olması” kimi yozulub, Bitcoin-in payının geriləməsi isə vəsaitin altkoinlərə yönəldiyini göstərir.
Lakin başlıqların arxasındakı məlumatlar daha qarışıq mənzərə yaradır. Bitcoin-in bazar payı son zirvələrindən geriləyib, amma struktur baxımından hələ də yüksəkdir. Birjalardakı USDT ehtiyatları azalır, lakin Tether stabilkoin ödənişlərində böyük fərqlə liderliyini qoruyur. Hərəkətdə olan kapital isə genişmiqyaslı altkoin rallisinə yönəlmir — o, məhdud sayda narrativdə cəmləşir.

What Happened
Bitcoin experienced a sharp intraday plunge on October 15, 2026. Following a hotter-than-expected US inflation report, BTC briefly dropped toward the $80,000 psychological level before recovering above $82,000. The sudden decline triggered a massive wave of forced liquidations across crypto derivatives markets nearly $950 million in total positions were wiped out over 24 hours, with long positions accounting for over 90% of the carnage. Approximately 178,000 to 184,000 traders were swept out of the market.
On the surface, this looks like a textbook "data-driven" selloff: the September Consumer Price Index (CPI) accelerated to 3.7% year-over-year, exceeding expectations and renewing fears that the Federal Reserve will keep rates higher for longer. Higher rates typically weigh on risk assets like crypto, and a crowded field of leveraged longs near $83,800–$84,000 became the trigger for a domino liquidation cascade.
But if you only see the macro headline, you’re missing the more important signals.
Why This Drop Is Different
This marks the second consecutive week that Bitcoin failed to break above the $87,000 resistance after briefly touching $87,336 earlier in October. Each failed attempt has been followed by a lower high, and the price now sits roughly 6% below that monthly peak.
More significantly, the market structure has shifted. Compared to the historic $19 billion liquidation event in October 2025, current leverage levels are noticeably lower. This means:
Liquidation cascades are less violent, but rallies also lack the explosive fuel that leveraged capital once provided.
ETF flows have reversed. US spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $261.4 million in net outflows on October 14 alone, led by Fidelity’s FBTC and BlackRock’s IBIT. This follows $681 million in outflows the prior week, a stark contrast to the roughly $3 billion in net inflows seen during a strong stretch in September.
In short: the market has shifted from "leverage-driven" to "spot-driven," and spot buyers are currently on the sidelines.
Key Levels: The Battle Lines
According to technical analysts, Bitcoin’s path forward is defined by a few critical price zones:
Upside Resistance: $84,000 – $87,000
The $84,000 area holds a cluster of liquidity and is the first test for any bounce. A sustained break above it would open the door to $87,336—the monthly high and the level that would confirm a trend reversal.
Core Support: $81,300 – $81,500
This is the short-term line in the sand. Analysts identify this zone as the institutional ETF cost basis, and holding it is essential for any relief rally to remain viable. A breakdown here puts $80,300 and the $80,000 psychological floor back in play.
Deeper Support: $76,000 – $78,000
If volatility expands further, the 21-week and 50-week exponential moving averages in the $76,000–$78,000 region become the next defense. More bearish Elliott Wave scenarios point to a deeper correction toward $70,000, with one analyst flagging a conditional $65,000 risk if $80,108 is decisively lost.
What Institutions Are Doing
Despite the price weakness, some structural signals remain constructive.
The number of wallets holding between 10 and 10,000 BTC has reached an all-time high of 20,338, according to Santiment data. This suggests mid-tier holders—often viewed as "smart money"—are quietly accumulating during the dip.
Meanwhile, ETF outflows appear to reflect short-term macro hedging rather than a rejection of Bitcoin’s long-term thesis. The one-day reversal from a $175.7 million inflow on October 13 to a $261.4 million outflow on October 14 underscores how quickly sentiment flips in this environment, but it doesn’t necessarily signal capitulation among institutional allocators.
The real headwind is the US dollar. With Treasury yields surging and the Dollar Index climbing, Bitcoin faces a familiar macro adversary: a strong dollar that drains liquidity from risk assets.
What to Watch Next
Bitcoin’s direction over the coming weeks hinges on three variables:
First, the Fed’s signal. Markets are now pricing roughly even odds of a rate hike at the October 27–28 FOMC meeting. Any dovish shift in Fed communication could provide immediate relief; further hawkish rhetoric would likely pressure $80,000 support again.
Second, whether ETF flows stabilize. If institutional money returns at these levels, it would build a firmer price floor. Continued outflows, however, would leave $80,000 vulnerable to repeated tests.
Third, the tech-stock transmission channel. Bitcoin’s correlation with the Nasdaq remains elevated, and weakness in AI-related equities is feeding through to crypto via risk appetite.
In the near term, the $81,300–$81,500 zone is the battlefield. Holding it keeps a retest of $84,000 in play; losing it opens the door to a deeper correction. In a market with thinner leverage and cautious spot demand, patience may matter more than conviction.
$BTC

Inflation Double Whammy: CPI and PPI Both Beat Expectations, Bitcoin Briefly Dips Below $80K
Core Takeaway: U.S. September CPI and PPI data released on consecutive days both significantly exceeded market expectations, revealing inflation pressure spreading from the consumer side to the production side. Bitcoin briefly dropped below $80,000 following the PPI release, falling over 3.6% within 24 hours. However, a "decoupling" in bond yields and cautious Fed commentary have allowed the crypto market to show some resilience amid the turbulence.
I. The Data: Inflation Pressure Far Exceeds Expectations
CPI (September): The U.S. Consumer Price Index rose 3.7% year-over-year in September, above the expected 3.6% and August's 3.4%. On a monthly basis, CPI rose 0.6%. Core CPI increased 2.6% year-over-year and 0.3% month-over-month, both beating expectations. Energy prices were the primary driver—gasoline prices surged 9.1% during the month, accounting for roughly half of the overall CPI increase.
PPI (September): Following closely behind CPI, the Producer Price Index delivered an even more startling report. September PPI rose 1.3% month-over-month, far exceeding the expected 0.6% and marking the largest single-month increase since March 2022. Year-over-year, PPI reached 6.3%, significantly above the expected 5.3%. Core PPI climbed to 5% year-over-year, also well above the 4.4% forecast.
The energy price transmission in PPI was particularly dramatic. According to Bureau of Labor Statistics data, final demand goods prices rose 2.6% month-over-month in September—the largest increase since the series began in December 2009—with over 80% of the increase attributable to energy prices, as gasoline surged 20.3%. The ongoing U.S.-Iran conflict and heightened tensions in the Middle East have become the core geopolitical factors keeping oil prices elevated.
II. Bitcoin's Immediate Reaction: Briefly Losing $80K
Following the PPI release, the crypto market reacted swiftly. Bitcoin dropped rapidly from around $84,000 before the data to a 24-hour decline of 3.6%, touching a low of $80,443—briefly breaking below the key psychological level of $80,000. This marked Bitcoin's first touch of that level since September 18.
On-chain data showed concentrated leverage liquidations during the downturn. In the hour of Bitcoin's rapid decline, total liquidations across the network reached $484 million, with approximately $616 million liquidated over 12 hours. Major crypto assets including Ethereum and XRP came under simultaneous pressure, with XRP falling over 5%.
However, the decline did not persist. Bitcoin quickly rebounded above $81,000 after hitting its low, then further recovered into the $82,000 range. This "sharp drop, sharp recovery" pattern reflects the market's conflicted mindset amid macroeconomic shocks.
III. The Key Variable: The Bond Yield "Decoupling"
The most noteworthy aspect of the market reaction to this inflation data is not the price volatility itself, but the anomalous behavior of U.S. Treasury yields.
Under traditional logic, inflation beating expectations should push bond yields higher, thereby pressuring risk assets. But after this data release, the 10-year Treasury yield fell rather than rose, dropping nearly 3% to touch its lowest level since September 23. Economist Mohamed El-Erian described the PPI data as "more shocking than the CPI," while noting that the bond market was not behaving according to convention.
Former Goldman Sachs chief FX strategist Robin Brooks offered an explanation: the market's sensitivity to macroeconomic data is declining. Data shows that the 30-day correlation between U.S. economic data surprises and daily 10-year yield movements has dropped from nearly 0.6 earlier in 2026 to close to zero by late August. Brooks argues that market focus has shifted from daily inflation data to the trajectory of the federal budget deficit, with long-end yield movements reflecting more about fiscal sustainability concerns than reactions to any single inflation print.
This "decoupling" is significant for crypto. When bond yields no longer spike on inflation data, the direct valuation pressure on risk assets is relatively reduced, allowing Bitcoin to hold key support after violent swings.
IV. Policy Game: Rising Rate Hike Odds vs. Fed Caution
With inflation data repeatedly beating expectations, market pricing of the Fed's policy path adjusted rapidly. According to CME FedWatch data, the probability of a 25-basis-point hike in October climbed sharply after the CPI release and reached 34% following the PPI data, while the probability of holding rates steady stood at 66%. Previously, the market broadly expected the Fed to stay put in October.
However, signals from within the Fed are not uniform. New York Fed President Williams said an "additional hike" may be needed but stressed the need for more time to assess economic conditions. Other officials expressed similar cautious stances. This "hawkish rhetoric, cautious action" posture has provided some buffer for markets.
More critically, the retail sales data details reveal underlying fragility in U.S. consumption. September retail sales rose 0.8% month-over-month, appearing strong, but excluding gasoline and autos, the gain was only 0.2%, and the retail control group rose just 0.1%. This means the surface-level consumption resilience is largely nominal value inflated by higher oil prices, rather than genuine demand expansion. This structural weakness may become a reason for the Fed to remain restrained on rate hikes.
V. Technicals and Outlook
After this macroeconomic shock, key technical levels on Bitcoin's chart have become the market's focus.
Support Zone: Analysts widely watch the 21-week exponential moving average (around $76,144)** and the **50-week exponential moving average (around $78,459). Trader Rekt Capital noted that Bitcoin may need a "volatility retest" of these moving averages to confirm a correction bottom, a deviation that has occurred multiple times in early bull markets.
Short-Term Resistance: The $82,500–$82,800 zone was previously important support, and Bitcoin has yet to effectively reclaim it. Analyst Aksel Kibar believes that if the weekly close falls below this zone, Bitcoin could re-enter a broad consolidation range of $60,000 to $82,800.
Core Variable: The October 28 FOMC meeting will be the next decisive node. Against the complex backdrop of inflation data repeatedly beating expectations, bond markets reacting dully, and consumption data harboring hidden concerns, the Fed's policy choice will directly influence the crypto market's short-term direction.
Summary: The two September inflation reports paint an unsettling picture—energy-driven price pressure is spreading comprehensively from the production side to the consumer side. Bitcoin's brief dip below $80,000 was the market's instinctive reaction to "higher for longer" rate expectations. But the bond yield "decoupling" and the Fed's cautious posture have left room for risk assets to breathe. For crypto investors, the real test is not the impact of a single data point, but whether the Fed can find balance between inflation pressure and economic fragility.
$BTC

Global financial markets are displaying a cautious posture today, characterized by selective risk-taking. While the cryptocurrency market holds steady, traditional US equities are showing mixed results as investors grapple with persistent inflation concerns and sector rotations.
Crypto Market Holds Steady at $2.76 Trillion
The cryptocurrency sector is demonstrating resilience, with the total market capitalization holding firm at $2.76 trillion, marking a modest 24-hour gain of 0.65%.
Despite the stability in price, trading activity has surged dramatically. The 24-hour volume spiked by 26.88% to reach $107.50 billion, indicating that traders are actively repositioning their portfolios. However, market sentiment remains tepid. The Fear & Greed Index sits at a neutral 51, reflecting an environment where investors are neither panic-selling nor aggressively buying the dip.
Key Takeaway: The market is currently watching for broader spot participation. Recent gains have been largely driven by specific altcoins, while the broader market awaits a catalyst to trigger a more unified rally.
US Stocks Mixed Amid Inflation and AI Rotation
Across the Atlantic, US stock indices painted a mixed picture, highlighting a divergence in market leadership:
· Dow Jones: Up 1.08%, showing strength in traditional value and industrial sectors.
· Nasdaq 100: Down 0.05%, as tech and growth stocks face headwinds.
The divergence suggests a rotation out of high-growth AI and tech names into more defensive or value-oriented positions. Investors are keeping a close eye on inflation data, which continues to be the primary driver of volatility. The phrase "higher for longer" regarding interest rates appears to be weighing heavily on the Nasdaq, while the Dow benefits from a shift in breadth.
The Bottom Line
The financial landscape on October 16, 2026, is defined by selectivity. In crypto, the "altcoin season" is picking winners rather than lifting all boats. In equities, the rotation from AI darlings to Dow components signals that investors are hedging their bets against persistent inflationary pressures. For now, the market is in a holding pattern, waiting for clearer macroeconomic signals.
$BTC

Michael Saylor sentyabr ayında STRC səhmlərinin geri alınmasından sonra Bitcoin yığımını davam etdirəcəyinə işarə edib. Şirkətin əlində 848 000 BTC var və alternativ maliyyələşdirmə kanallarına çıxışı davam edir.
Strategy şirkətinin (əvvəllər MicroStrategy) sədri Michael Saylor sentyabr ayında imtiyazlı STRC səhmlərinin böyük həcmdə geri alınmasından sonra şirkətin daha çox Bitcoin almaq üçün hələ də imkanının olduğunu bildirib . Bu açıqlama Strategy şirkətinin təxminən 848 000 BTC-yə sahib olduğu və onların dəyərinin təxminən 70,48 milyard dollar təşkil etdiyi, bunun isə mövcud bütün Bitcoin-lərin təxminən 4,04%-nə bərabər olduğu bir vaxtda verilib .

Sentyabr ayının qeyri-kənd təsərrüfatı əmək haqqı hesabatı cümə günü sönük bir şəkildə düşdü və bazarlar hələ də şoku mənimsəyirdi. ABŞ iqtisadiyyatı ötən ay cəmi 29.000 iş yeri əlavə etdi—90.000-lik konsensus proqnozunu ötəyindən, Bank of America-nın 60.000-lik hədəf səddindən xeyli aşağı, dərc olunmuş bütün proqnozları isə böyük fərqlə arxada qoydu. İşsizlik səviyyəsi 4,2%-ə yüksəldi və əmək bazarının siyasətçilərin gözlədiyindən daha sürətlə soyuduğu barədə rəvayətə əlavə ağırlıq verdi.
Ayaqlığını itirən əmək bazarı

Son çökmə kripto bazarını darmadağın edib, hətta təcrübəli sahibləri belə dövrü şübhə altına salıb. Amma təşvişə düşmək əvəzinə, Bitkoinin çoxillik eniş tarixçəsinə — 2011-dən 2024-ə qədər — bir nəzər salmaq soyuq, riyazi bir yol xəritəsi təqdim edir.
Sual bunun ayı bazarı olub-olmaması deyil. Sual budur: Bu dəfə nə qədər dərin olacaq?
Dövr Diaqramının Əslində Nə Göstərdiyi
Təqdim olunan qrafiklərdəki məlumatlar düzüləndə, aydın (və yaxınlarda pozulmuş) bir nümunə ortaya çıxır:
· 2011–2012: –91.4%
· 2014–2015: –83.3%

İllərdir ki, kripto sənayesi ABŞ-da tənzimləyici "boz zona"da fəaliyyət göstərir. Şirkətlər hansı agentliyin onların üzərində olduğunu bilmir, tənzimləyicilər—əsasən, Qiymətli Kağızlar və Birja Komissiyası (SEC) və Əmtəə Müqavilələri Ticarət Komissiyası (CFTC)—müxtəliftəqdimat üzərində mübarizədədilər. Bu aydın qaydaların olmaması innovasiyanı xaricə sürükləyib və investorları fırıldaqçılığa qarşı açıq qoyub.
2025-ci il Rə dijital Aktiv Bazarı Aydınlıq Aktı, daha çox CLARITY Aktı kimi tanınır.

Kriptovalyuta bazarı bir uçurumun kənarında dayanır. Aylarca, investorlar davamlı bərpa ümidinə yapışmışdılar, amma texniki mənzərə fərqli bir hekayə danışır. Çizgilər artıq konsolidasiya siqnalı vermir; onlar bir parçalanma siqnalı verirlər.
Bazar strukturunu, likvidlik zonalarını və dominantlıq meyllərini analiz etdikdən sonra, düşündürücü bir mənzərə ortaya çıxır. Biz aşağıya doğru bir kaskadın içindəyik, Bitcoin (BTC) $38,000-a doğru irəliləyir, Ethereum (ETH) və Solana (SOL) ilə birlikdə aşağı düşür. Bu sadəcə bir geri çəkilmə deyil; bu, strukturun pozulmasıdır.