CryptoQuant Quicktake

CryptoQuant data suggests the recent Coldcard firmware exploit triggered one of the largest waves of small holder Bitcoin movement in years, with on chain activity reaching levels last seen during the FTX collapse.
Key On Chain Facts
Sub 1 BTC Transfers Near FTX Levels
On July 31, transfers below 1 BTC reached 39.6K BTC, just below the 39.9K BTC recorded after the FTX collapse on November 16, 2022. Small holders have not moved Bitcoin at this scale in nearly four years.
Network Activity Surged
Daily active addresses jumped from about 645K to nearly 1 million, the highest level since December 2024. The increase was driven mainly by sending addresses, reflecting a sharp rise in coin movement.
Long Term Holder Spending Increased
Long term holder spending from non exchange wallets reached 406K BTC on a 30 day cumulative basis by August 3, the highest level since mid January.
Exchange Reserves Rose
Total exchange reserves increased from approximately 2.7015M BTC to 2.719M BTC between July 28 and August 3, adding about 17.5K BTC.
Binance absorbed roughly 51% of these net inflows, with its reserves rising from around 650K BTC to 659K BTC.
This appears to be a flight to safety driven by temporary distrust in self custody following the hardware wallet scare rather than a classic capitulation event. Bitcoin is moving onto exchanges, especially Binance, increasing short term sell side supply.
However, funding rates remain positive and open interest is still contained, suggesting the market has not yet gone through a full deleveraging phase.
The key metric to watch is whether these newly deposited coins remain on exchanges or move back into self custody once the panic fades.
Written by theophiluspep

CryptoQuant data suggests the recent Coldcard firmware exploit triggered one of the largest waves of small holder Bitcoin movement in years, with on chain activity reaching levels last seen during the FTX collapse.
Key On Chain Facts
Sub 1 BTC Transfers Near FTX Levels
On July 31, transfers below 1 BTC reached 39.6K BTC, just below the 39.9K BTC recorded after the FTX collapse on November 16, 2022. Small holders have not moved Bitcoin at this scale in nearly four years.
Network Activity Surged
Daily active addresses jumped from about 645K to nearly 1 million, the highest level since December 2024. The increase was driven mainly by sending addresses, reflecting a sharp rise in coin movement.
Long Term Holder Spending Increased
Long term holder spending from non exchange wallets reached 406K BTC on a 30 day cumulative basis by August 3, the highest level since mid January.
Exchange Reserves Rose
Total exchange reserves increased from approximately 2.7015M BTC to 2.719M BTC between July 28 and August 3, adding about 17.5K BTC.
Binance absorbed roughly 51% of these net inflows, with its reserves rising from around 650K BTC to 659K BTC.
This appears to be a flight to safety driven by temporary distrust in self custody following the hardware wallet scare rather than a classic capitulation event. Bitcoin is moving onto exchanges, especially Binance, increasing short term sell side supply.
However, funding rates remain positive and open interest is still contained, suggesting the market has not yet gone through a full deleveraging phase.
The key metric to watch is whether these newly deposited coins remain on exchanges or move back into self custody once the panic fades.
Written by theophiluspep

CryptoQuant data suggests the recent Coldcard firmware exploit triggered one of the largest waves of small holder Bitcoin movement in years, with on chain activity reaching levels last seen during the FTX collapse.
Key On Chain Facts
Sub 1 BTC Transfers Near FTX Levels
On July 31, transfers below 1 BTC reached 39.6K BTC, just below the 39.9K BTC recorded after the FTX collapse on November 16, 2022. Small holders have not moved Bitcoin at this scale in nearly four years.
Network Activity Surged
Daily active addresses jumped from about 645K to nearly 1 million, the highest level since December 2024. The increase was driven mainly by sending addresses, reflecting a sharp rise in coin movement.
Long Term Holder Spending Increased
Long term holder spending from non exchange wallets reached 406K BTC on a 30 day cumulative basis by August 3, the highest level since mid January.
Exchange Reserves Rose
Total exchange reserves increased from approximately 2.7015M BTC to 2.719M BTC between July 28 and August 3, adding about 17.5K BTC.
Binance absorbed roughly 51% of these net inflows, with its reserves rising from around 650K BTC to 659K BTC.
This appears to be a flight to safety driven by temporary distrust in self custody following the hardware wallet scare rather than a classic capitulation event. Bitcoin is moving onto exchanges, especially Binance, increasing short term sell side supply.
However, funding rates remain positive and open interest is still contained, suggesting the market has not yet gone through a full deleveraging phase.
The key metric to watch is whether these newly deposited coins remain on exchanges or move back into self custody once the panic fades.
Written by theophiluspep

XRP closed at $1.075 on August 3, down from the $1.143 high set on July 22 and now sitting near the lower edge of its recent range. A 2.3% weekly decline is unremarkable on its own. More notable is what’s happening beneath the surface.
Open Interest has fallen to 362–369M over the past few days — the lowest readings in the entire 6-month window (range: 362M–519M, mean 435M). Leverage sits at 0.139–0.142, also near its 6-month floor of 0.133. Both metrics are down roughly 12–18% versus their 90-day baselines, reflecting a sustained unwind rather than a one-day drop.
What stands out is how this decline occurred. Liquidations during the move from $1.143 to $1.061 remained relatively balanced: July 27 saw $3.24M in long liquidations versus $470K in shorts, while July 29 flipped to $640K longs against $548K shorts. That pattern doesn’t resemble a typical forced-deleveraging cascade, where one side dominates. Funding also stayed inside a narrow -0.009 to +0.010 band throughout. Despite week-over-week changes exceeding 1,000%, absolute funding remained neutral.
Another point: NVT fell 42.7% versus its 3-month average, while transaction count declined only 23.3% over the same period — suggesting valuation compressed faster than network usage. On the spot side, Binance deposit addresses remain down more than 95% versus the quarterly baseline, although a $2.3M inflow spike on July 30 shows liquidity has thinned rather than disappeared.
Taken together — leverage and OI near multi-month lows, balanced liquidations, and neutral funding — the setup looks more like a quiet positioning reset than a directional flush. Historically, such resets have preceded either stabilization or a resumption of the prevailing trend, depending on whether Open Interest stabilizes or continues falling alongside price.
Written by CryptoOnchain

The BTC CVD Confirmation Score on Binance has stabilized at 0.74, a level that reflects the continued alignment between price action and buying pressure in the market. Higher values indicate that price increases are supported by genuine buying inflows rather than moves driven by low liquidity or short-term speculation.
Data shows that the indicator has maintained elevated positive levels during periods of strong Bitcoin uptrends while declining significantly during market corrections or periods of weakening momentum. Its current reading of 0.74 suggests that buyers continue to dominate trading activity on the world's largest cryptocurrency exchange by trading volume.
Meanwhile, Bitcoin is trading near $64,000, reflecting continued price stability within a relatively high range. This level becomes even more significant when accompanied by a strong CVD Confirmation Score, as it suggests that trading volume is supporting the current trend rather than moving against it.
Despite the positive signal, the indicator has not yet reached overbought territory, which typically begins above 0.90 and may signal excessive market optimism or a potential slowdown in momentum. Therefore, the current reading points to sustained market strength without any clear signs of overheating or overbought conditions.
Written by Arab Chain

Binance ELR (Estimated Leverage Ratio) is currently sitting at 0.22 and continues its upward trend.
It can be stated that Binance ELR will likely maintain an inverse correlation with Bitcoin's price, much like it did at the end of 2022. Logically, ELR does not directly dictate price direction; however, when combined with various other market metrics, it provides key insights into how much risk can be reasonably taken at critical levels.
As a high-volume exchange housing a vast number of retail traders, Binance serves as a key gauge for broader market behavior. An increasing ELR alongside declining Bitcoin prices indicates that a growing number of leveraged positions are entering the market. This reflects a volume inflated by derivatives rather than actual spot Bitcoin buying and selling.
By the end of 2026, a surge in ELR above the 0.25 mark could signal that Bitcoin has established its local bottom. A zone around $50,000 likely represents the floor for this cycle, after which a transition back into a bullish structure can be expected. Nevertheless, a drop to these levels would almost certainly be triggered by significant negative news flow.
Written by BorisD

A Federal Reserve pause does not provide the same stimulus as a rate cut. The Fed held its target range at 3.50% to 3.75% on 29 July, maintaining a restrictive return on cash and short-duration government debt. The decision passed by a 9-3 vote, but it did not deliver a new liquidity impulse.
Bitcoin’s internal demand indicators reflect that restraint. The Coinbase Premium Index remains deeply negative near -0.11, indicating weaker Bitcoin pricing on Coinbase than on offshore venues. That pattern points to subdued US spot demand and limits the case that domestic institutions are absorbing supply.
Aggregate open interest remains below its 100-day average, while CME options exposure has contracted sharply from its first-quarter peak. CME futures open interest has held up better, but the maturity profile remains concentrated in shorter-dated contracts. This can reflect hedging and basis activity rather than outright bullish conviction.
Exchange reserves have also risen from their April low to approximately 2.72 million BTC. Investors therefore have more readily transferable supply available as US demand remains weak.
Considering the geopolitical and macroeconomic forces affecting capital markets, Bitcoin needs more than a rate hold. A durable recovery would require falling yields, improving ETF flows, a Coinbase premium converging toward zero, and declining exchange reserves to signal something positive.
Until those conditions emerge, a pause merely prevents further tightening; it does not create an accommodative regime for sustained price appreciation. Instead, it creates conditions for a price squeeze.
Written by Novaque Research

Some media outlets and crypto-focused social accounts recycled an earlier Strategy announcement on August 1, presenting it as a new decision to sell as much as $5 billion in Bitcoin following the company’s second-quarter losses.
The framing suggested that Strategy—formerly MicroStrategy—had suddenly changed its long-term Bitcoin policy and was preparing for a large, immediate liquidation.
However, the underlying capital-management framework had already been approved and publicly disclosed on June 29, more than a month earlier.
Michael Saylor directly rejected the viral framing, describing it as “old news presented as new” and clarifying that no new $5 billion Bitcoin sale authorization had been issued in August.
Yet while the corporate decision was not new, the fear generated by the recycled headlines appears to have produced a measurable response among short-term Bitcoin holders.
The data shows that STH transferred approximately 8,550 BTC to Binance at a realized loss on August 1, coinciding with the rapid spread of the Strategy story.
Deposits to an exchange do not prove that the entire amount was sold, but they indicate increased potential sell-side pressure or preparation to sell.
This was the third major short-term-holder loss-pressure event on Binance since late June:
June 26: 11,800 BTC
July 13: 10,230 BTC
August 1: 8,550 BTC
This episode illustrates how incomplete or recycled headlines can create new market anxiety without any equivalent change in the underlying facts.
Less-experienced traders may respond by moving assets to exchanges while already holding unrealized losses, increasing the risk of selling near local lows after previously buying at higher prices.
Such fear-driven periods can also shift liquidity from reactive market participants toward better-capitalized and more patient investors—including professional funds capable of accumulating risk assets during periods of forced or emotional selling.
Written by Amr Taha

A bull market is a process when whales sell $BTC, which they bought at low prices, to retail investors while the price rises.
In past cycle patterns, $BTC LTH created a first rally by selling a portion of its accumulated supply. Subsequently, it saw a pattern of accumulating more supply during subsequent declines, after which a second rally proceeded.
In general, the second rally recorded a much larger rise than the first rally, and the cycle ended as LTH lost a significant portion of their supply.
The first rally of this cycle began in January 2023 and continued until December 2025. During this process, LTH repeatedly bought and sold $BTC. Subsequently, during the decline, they explosively increased their supply by buying far more than their selling amount.
Recently, the increase trend in LTH supply has stopped, and a decrease has begun. Based on previous patterns, the second rally is starting.
In the 2013 cycle, the gap between the first and second rally was 8 months. In the 2017 cycle, it was 17 months. And in the 2021 cycle, it was 16 months.
In this cycle, 31 months have passed since the first rally. This is a completely different pattern from previous cycles. The second rally was delayed as spot ETFs were launched, institutional funds flowed in, and buying by new "whales" continued.
However, the important fact is that LTHs hold the largest amount of $BTC in history.
And that the supply of $BTC from LTHs has started to decrease.
Written by CW8900

The Coinbase Premium Gap has closed negative for 90 consecutive days, from May 6 to August 3. The last positive daily close was May 5 at +$2.20. In the trailing twelve months of data this is the longest such run, more than double the previous one of 40 days in January and February.
The size of the gap deserves as much attention as its sign. The August 3 reading was -$53.49, which is -0.084% on the index, and the streak averages -0.092%. Tether has been trading at $0.99912, a discount of 0.088% to the dollar, or roughly $56 per bitcoin at current spot. On the USDT-adjusted series the picture changes: 45 of the 90 days close positive, with a median of +$0.53. In July, 20 of 31 days were positive once adjusted, against zero on the raw series.
If the raw gap were tracking US spot demand, fund balances should confirm it. They only partly do. Holdings across the spot bitcoin funds in CryptoQuant's fund data fell from 1,337,575 BTC on May 6 to 1,213,891 on July 31, a decline of 123,684 BTC. Almost all of that came in May and June. July added 2,277 BTC, and IBIT alone added 3,711. Through a month in which the premium never once closed positive, the funds were net buyers.
This suggests the streak is being driven more by the quote currency than by absent American bids. Watching the adjusted series alongside fund balances looks like the cleaner read, with the raw gap treated as a signal mainly when the two disagree. A raw gap turning positive while Tether still trades below par would be the more meaningful shift.
Written by The Enigma Trader

Exchange Whale Ratio on Binance remains significantly lower than the levels seen earlier this year, suggesting that selling pressure from large transactions has yet to show signs of increasing again.
However, the indicator has been moving sideways over the past few weeks rather than continuing to decline, indicating that whale activity is currently more balanced, instead of clearly favoring either accumulation or distribution.
Which scenario do you lean toward: accumulation before a breakout or quiet distribution?
Written by Rei Researcher

USDT Market Cap Decline Reaches Historically Extreme Levels:
USDT liquidity is undergoing one of its sharpest contractions on record.
The 60-day change in USDT market capitalization has fallen to approximately -$4 billion, placing the metric near the most negative readings in its history.
The deterioration has also accelerated at the margin: nearly $870 million of USDT supply disappeared over the latest 11-day period, showing that the contraction is not merely a legacy effect from earlier redemptions.
This matters because stablecoins represent the crypto market’s most immediate source of deployable liquidity.
The caution is that correlation between USDT flows and BTC price doesn't settle causality. Both likely respond to the same risk-off conditions, with redemptions accelerating alongside spot selling rather than strictly ahead of it.
Periods of sustained USDT expansion have generally coincided with stronger Bitcoin price regimes, while prolonged contractions have accompanied weaker demand, deeper corrections, and deteriorating market conditions.
Historically, the market's deepest USDT contraction phases have also marked points where selling pressure was closer to exhaustion than to further acceleration.
The current decline in Bitcoin is therefore not occurring in isolation. It is unfolding while one of the market’s largest liquidity bases is shrinking aggressively.
This helps explain why rebounds have struggled to gain durability: there is less stablecoin liquidity available beneath price to convert into sustained spot demand.
A meaningful improvement would require the 60-day change to stabilize, daily contractions to moderate, and USDT supply to begin expanding again. Until then, Bitcoin is attempting to recover against a tightening liquidity environment rather than a renewed influx of capital.
Written by MorenoDV_

Japan's digital asset policy is entering a new stage. While much of the public discussion focuses on a potential 20% separate tax rate for crypto, the broader reforms extend far beyond taxation.
Lawmakers and regulators are simultaneously working on financial regulation, Bitcoin ETFs, stablecoins, corporate taxation, and broader Web3 initiatives. Together, these reforms could reshape Japan's digital asset ecosystem over the coming years.
One of the biggest developments is the planned introduction of a separate tax regime for eligible crypto transactions, accompanied by a three-year tax-loss carryforward. While details are still being finalized, the discussion has shifted from whether reform should happen to how it should be implemented.
Another key topic is Japan's potential spot Bitcoin ETF market. Although no decision has been made, regulatory discussions increasingly recognize the importance of creating an appropriate framework that balances investor protection with market development.
At the same time, Japan is expanding its focus beyond cryptocurrencies. Stablecoins, tokenized finance, blockchain infrastructure, and AI-driven on-chain finance are becoming central themes in the country's long-term financial strategy.
The real story is not a single tax reform or a single financial product. It is the creation of a comprehensive digital asset framework that could strengthen Japan's competitiveness in the global digital economy.
For those interested in where Japan's digital asset policy is heading, these discussions deserve close attention.
Written by XWIN Japan

UNI, the token of the Uniswap platform, is among those altcoins that have failed to set a new high during this cycle.
The token is currently trading more than 90% below its ATH of around $45, set in 2021.
Amid this sharp correction, some investors see an accumulation opportunity, visible through UNI outflows from Binance. The chart below tracks the evolution of the 10 largest UNI withdrawal transactions from the Binance platform, highlighting this intensifying accumulation.
Recently, the monthly average of outflows from this top 10 reached a historic level, not seen since 2021, marking a 5-year high. As UNI dropped below $2.5 for the first time in 5 years, the average outflow surged to over 7 200 UNI leaving Binance and is rising again today.
Some days alone saw outflows exceed 10 000 UNI, coming solely from the 10 largest daily transactions.
Dip buyers on UNI appear particularly active, with outflows from this top 10 rising sharply on every dip in the token.
These outflows therefore suggest that UNI accumulation is continuing, particularly among the largest players on Binance.
Despite a sharp correction, some investors thus still seem to believe in Uniswap's expansion, and by extension in the platform token's performance.
Written by Darkfost

The recent cold wallet security incident has triggered a wave of on-chain fund movements across the Bitcoin market. However, the distribution of exchange inflows by UTXO size suggests that the reaction is far from uniform.
Exchange deposits from wallets holding less than 1 BTC have surged sharply over the past few days, while deposits from wallets holding more than 1 BTC have continued to trend lower. This divergence indicates that the recent increase in exchange inflows is primarily being driven by smaller holders seeking the perceived safety of centralized exchanges, rather than by large investors preparing to sell.
In other words, the current flow appears to reflect custody migration rather than broad-based distribution. Large holders are more likely relocating funds between wallets while maintaining their long-term positions, implying that they have little intention of exiting the market.
This suggests that the recent event resembles retail-driven fear rather than institutional or whale capitulation. The relatively limited price decline further reinforces this interpretation. If a genuine wave of large-holder selling were taking place, a much stronger downside reaction would be expected. Instead, the market appears to be absorbing the available supply, indicating that meaningful demand remains present.
The cold wallet security issue is undoubtedly a significant negative catalyst. However, the market's muted response suggests either that most immediate selling pressure has already been exhausted, or that the market has yet to experience a true capitulation event.
Written by ScenarioX

The Coinbase Premium Index for Ethereum continues to trade in negative territory at -0.0833, while ETH is trading near $1,900. This negative reading indicates that Ethereum is priced lower on Coinbase than on Binance, reflecting weaker demand from U.S. investors compared to global demand. This trend is typically attributed to reduced buying activity from U.S. institutions or a shift in liquidity toward other markets and trading platforms, while Binance continues to attract the majority of global trading activity.
Data shows that the index briefly moved into positive territory during April, signaling a temporary improvement in U.S. demand. However, this momentum proved short-lived, as the index returned to negative territory at the beginning of May and has remained below zero ever since. This suggests a lack of sustained buying pressure from U.S. investors despite continued activity across global markets.
The fact that Ethereum continues to trade at a premium on Binance relative to Coinbase suggests that global demand remains stronger than demand in the United States. If this trend persists, ETH may struggle to establish sustained upward momentum supported by institutional inflows. However, if the indicator turns positive and remains above zero, it would signal a return of U.S. institutional buying, potentially strengthening Ethereum's bullish momentum and supporting price stability over the medium term, especially if accompanied by higher trading volumes on Binance and stronger investment inflows into the broader cryptocurrency market.
Written by Arab Chain

XRP fyuçers həcmi May üzrə ən aşağı səviyyələrə düşür; Binance isə digər bütün birjaların cəmini demək olar ki, üstələyir
XRP törəmə alətlərindəki fəaliyyət kəskin şəkildə azalıb; yeddi günlük orta fyuçers həcmi maydan bəri ən aşağı səviyyəyə qayıdıb.
3 avqust tarixində Binance təxminən $437 milyon XRP fyuçers həcmi qeydə alıb, bütün digər mərkəzləşdirilmiş birjaların birlikdə isə təxminən $460 milyon qeydiyyata alıb.
Bu, Binance-in həcminin bazarın qalan hissəsində qeydə alınan fəaliyyətin təxminən 95%-nə bərabər olduğunu, ümumilikdə $897 milyon olan cəmin demək olar ki, 48.7%-ni təşkil etdiyini deməkdir.

From a cycle perspective, Bitcoin appears to have reached a position similar to its historical bottoms of the past.
While we can't be certain this is the absolute low, this indicator shows that market participants are as uninterested in the crypto market as they were during previous bottoms.
Looking ahead to the next bull cycle — expected to begin around 2027 — there's little doubt that the current range represents an undervalued zone.
Written by Crypto Dan

Bitcoin's recent pullback saw roughly 155,000 BTC (0.7% of supply) move into the $62K–$65K realized price band, creating the market's largest cost basis cluster. This points to absorption rather than capitulation, as buyers accumulated into weakness.
While the supply side remains constructive, demand has softened. Bitcoin closed July around $62.9K (+7.3%), but spot trading volume has fallen to its lowest level since late 2023. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs also recorded $61.5M in weekly net outflows, ending a three-week inflow streak, with one session alone seeing $265M leave ETFs.
Derivatives remain balanced. Funding rates are positive at 0.006%–0.01%, open interest is stable, and leverage remains contained despite a slight retail long bias.
Overall, the market is sending mixed signals. Strong on-chain absorption and declining exchange reserves support the supply side, but weak ETF flows and thin spot volume continue to cap upside. Until a macro catalyst or institutional demand returns, Bitcoin is likely to remain range-bound around the $62K–$65K cost basis cluster. A sustained break below this zone would weaken the current market structure, while renewed ETF inflows could reignite bullish momentum.
Written by theophiluspep

Bitcoin’s decline to approximately $62,400 contains elements of deleveraging and loss realisation, but the latest readings do not confirm a completed capitulation.
Open interest fell sharply during the June sell-off and now stands near $22.4 billion, below its 100-day average. This indicates that the market removed a meaningful amount of leverage rather than carrying the entire speculative position lower. Short-term-holder SOPR repeatedly fell below 1, showing that recent buyers realised losses. However, the metric has since returned close to breakeven rather than reaching a sustained recovery regime.
The latest configuration has become less constructive. Funding remains positive at approximately 0.006, exchange netflow has turned positive near 2,900 BTC, and exchange reserves have risen toward 2.72 million BTC. Together, these readings show that traders are rebuilding long exposure while more spot inventory is becoming available to sell. Bitcoin therefore faces a distribution risk even after the initial deleveraging.
Fading expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts and continued inflation concerns have contributed to ETF withdrawals and weaker demand for crypto assets. Reuters reported that Bitcoin had lost more than 27% during the year by 31 July.
The next constructive signal would be a combination of negative exchange netflows, open interest staying below trend, and SOPR reclaiming 1. Conversely, a drop below $62,000, alongside rising open interest and positive funding, would raise the likelihood of another long-liquidation event.
Written by Novaque Research