codedtrader

kaos içinde fırsatlar yatar. Hadi bunu inceleyelim:

1. AVIV Oranı Z-Skoru Dönüşü
8 Nisan'da, AVIV Oranı Z-Skoru tam olarak 6 Eylül 2023 ile aynı seviyede geri döndü — bu, güçlü bir yükseliş trendinin başlangıcını işaret etti.
Tarih uyum sağlarsa, bu bir dönüm noktası olabilir

2. Gerçekleşen Sermaye Çarpanı (365G)
From @_checkonchain: çarpan hala düşük likiditeyi işaret ediyor. Tarihsel olarak, bu tür bir ortam piyasa dipleri ile örtüşüyor.
Likidite = yakıt. Hala benzin istasyonundayız.

3. Kısa Vadeli Sahip MVRV

1/ #SPX crashed -10.65% last week, but BTC only dipped -0.5%. Their correlation Z-score is 0.76, yet BTC’s not reacting to the nuke. TOTAL market cap vs. BTC/SPX ratio correlation dipped below zero yesterday—last seen Nov 5, 2023, a bottom for SPX & #BTC rally.

2/ BTC/SPX RSI (EMA-smoothed) has a positive RoC, signaling BTC strength. SPX skewness (-1.45, STD 0.01098) shows downside risk, while BTC’s (-0.12761, STD 0.01727) is stable. BTC vol-adjusted range: 79,079.28–86,659.88. Suggests resilience.

3/ #SOL shines: positive Sharpe & Sortino ratios, oversold, skewness 0.67301 (STD 0.04547). OTHERS.D Z-score -1.02 signals #Altcoins decoupling from BTC dominance. SOL’s the optimal asset here.

4/ Strategy: Long $SOL now—best risk/reward, oversold with upside skew. Optional BTC long (79K–86K range) as a hedge. Avoid SPX until recovery clears.

Novices panic and react, while real Gs observe then act.

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El Índice de Chop está disminuyendo, señalando un posible cambio en el régimen del mercado. Bitcoin ha estado consolidándose desde finales de enero, y múltiples indicadores en cadena sugieren que está sobrevendido.

El Indicador de Riesgo-Mosaico continúa señalando una recuperación. Sin embargo, #Bitcoin está en un nivel crítico de resistencia—los datos históricos sugieren que o se rompe o retrocede para probar niveles más bajos como se ve en el gráfico a continuación.

Mientras tanto, algunos #Altcoins están ganando fuerza mientras #BTC duda. Notablemente #Solana ($SOL), que tuvo un rendimiento inferior durante el rango de BTC, su ratio contra BTC está mostrando signos de impulso—el RSI acaba de cruzar 50, y su EMA está tendiendo agresivamente hacia arriba.

The data is signaling a strong buy opportunity
1/ Short-Term Holder MVRV Bollinger Bands
$BTC is super oversold, indicating a great buying opportunity based on this metric.

2/ Short-Term Holder SOPR
This indicator tells us whether short-term BTC holders are selling at a profit or loss.
SOPR is rebounding and nearing neutral—a sign of potential recovery.

3/ Realized Capital Multiplier
Reading low liquidity, which often signals market bottoms.

4/ Supply Profit & Loss Ratio
In a high-value zone, historically associated with market capitulation.

5/ RiskMosaic – Risk On/Off System
This framework integrates liquidity, sentiment, volatility, and macro factors. Currently at -0.35 (Blue), which signals market recovery. Additionally, Parabolic SAR flipped bullish yesterday, indicating a resumption of the uptrend.

No single indicator is 100% accurate, but when multiple high-quality technical and on-chain signals align, it creates strong confluence for high-probability trades.

Novices panic and react. Real Gs observe, then act.

1/ Pure Coca Indicator – A powerful analytical tool leveraging Z-score calculations to detect dynamic market shifts. Plotted on the BTC/GOLD ratio, it’s clear that $PAXG remains the superior asset, especially in these uncertain times.

2/ 42 Macro’s Warning – @DariusDale42 from 42 Macro emphasizes that if the FED doesn’t expand its balance sheet this year, we could see a 20-30% drop in the S&P 500—which remains highly correlated with #Bitcoin. According to him the U.S is undergoing a significant transformation, he then highlights the grand scale & complexity of the U.S. economy and capital markets in his tweet. He concluded a transition of this magnitude is unlikely to be short and shallow—expect a prolonged, painful process.

3/ Looking at the Total Crypto Market, ADF Indicator suggests a continued downtrend, with the smoothed SMA staying above the mid-line threshold—as seen on the chart.

4/ Liquidity injections from TGA spenddown continue to rise, yet crypto is not reacting positively. The correlation remains negative, as shown in the coefficient correlation data.

5/ Despite a weak overall crypto market, OTHERS (excluding the top 10 tokens) is strengthening. The RSI suggests some oversold #Altcoins with strong fundamentals may see isolated rallies. Watch closely.

6/ The Choppiness Index confirms that #Bitcoin remains in a consolidation phase. Patience is key.

7/ Final Thoughts – In times of uncertainty, cash or gold remain optimal choices.

Novices panic & react, but real Gs observe then act.
Stay sharp. Stay strategic.

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Thanks

The Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR) gives us insight into whether #bitcoin holders are selling at a profit or loss. Right now, short-term holders are selling at a loss, but SOPR is rebounding. As a support/resistance indicator: When SOPR nears 1, it acts as a key market sentiment level. If it bounces above 1 means bullish continuation.

Realized Capital Multiplier (365-day) from Checkonchain shows extreme low liquidity.
Low liquidity (blue/green) often signals market bottoms → strong buying opportunities.

TGA Spend-Down Effect & Liquidity Injection
Treasury injected $80B+ into the market yesterday.
While $BTC hasn’t reacted strongly to recent injections, markets may be pricing it in.

Remember:
Novices panic and react, while Real Gs observe then act.

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Thank you.

Təsəvvür edin ki, bir uşaq kəskin bıçaq götürür, düşünərək ki, o, bir şah əsər yarada bilər. Bu, Donald Trampın ikinci dövrüdür, tarifləri Amerika iqtisadiyyatını yenidən formalaşdırmaq üçün bir alət kimi istifadə edir. O, fabrikin geri dönüşünü, işlərin canlanmasını və Amerikanın güclənməsini istəyir. Amma burada risk var: kəskin alətlər həm müsbət, həm də mənfi təsir göstərə bilər.
Tramp qlobal iqtisadiyyatı sarsıdır, və ABŞ dolları—Amerika gücünün bel sütunu—təzyiqi hiss edir. Hətta əgər indi dayansa, ziyanın artıq baş vermiş ola bilər. Və arxa planda, Bitcoin izləyir, taxtını ələ keçirmək üçün fürsətini gözləyir.

The Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) plotted on total Crypto market cap has entered a trending state, confirming a downtrend.

$BTC cycle valuation broke below neutral for the first time since early November, when it crossed above this threshold.

Analyst Tomas’ prediction of the TGA spenddown is playing out as expected, but BTC isn’t responding positively. Instead, it’s moving opposite to this liquidity injection.

Quick take on US debt ceiling: The U.S. has fooled itself longest. With a $39.8T liability gap, a $1.8T deficit, and $9T in 2025 maturities, the debt ceiling standoff is a ticking time bomb. If yields spike, expect market chaos.

Prepare accordingly—when this unwinds, it won’t be gentle.

Novices panic and react, while real Gs observe then act.
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Thank you

By Grok 3, xAI | March 12, 2025
“You can fool all the people some of the time, and some of the people all the time, but you cannot fool all the people all the time,” Abraham Lincoln supposedly quipped. Oh, Abe, how quaint. For decades, the U.S. government’s been testing that theory, racking up a $39.8 trillion gap between its $45.5 trillion in liabilities and $5.7 trillion in assets, per the FY 2024 Financial Report [1]. Spoiler: we might’ve fooled ourselves longest.
How’d we get here? Simple—spend like there’s no tomorrow. The feds borrowed $2 trillion in 2024 alone to cover a $1.8 trillion deficit, pushing federal debt to $28.3 trillion [2]. Add $15 trillion in pension and veteran promises—because who doesn’t love a good IOU?—and assets like $1.8 trillion in student loans barely dent the hole [1]. It’s not a conspiracy; it’s math. Decades of deficits, from Reagan to Biden, built this beast, with debt-to-GDP now at 100% and eyeing 236% by 2050 [3].
Enter the debt ceiling, back at $36.1 trillion since January [2]. Treasury’s juggling $1 trillion in cash and tricks, but $9 trillion in 2025 debt maturities looms [4]. If Congress balks—GOP infighting’s a Fitch Ratings worry [5]—yields could spike, choking a “global refinancing air pocket.” With $24.3 trillion in global corporate debt due soon, a U.S. hiccup could jack rates, sink firms, and crash markets [6].
Sentiment’s already rotten—consumer confidence at 98.3, Fear & Greed in “extreme fear” [7]—and X screams “collapse!”
Lincoln’s smug certainty says the crowd’ll wise up. Historically, bad vibes mark bottoms—2022’s gloom didn’t crash us [8]. But this time’s spicier: tariffs, layoffs, a $45.5 trillion tab. A ceiling standoff could torch the S&P 30% to 3,500 if refinancing stalls and the Fed freezes [9].
Variable t—when it hits—is anyone’s guess, but the gap’s a loaded gun.
So, Abe, maybe you’re wrong. We’ve fooled plenty, piling debt like it’s Monopoly money. Prepare anyway—when this unwinds, it won’t be gentle.
Sources:
1. U.S. Treasury, FY 2024 Financial Report (Feb 2025)
2. TreasuryDirect, Debt to the Penny (Sep 30, 2024)
3. Penn Wharton Budget Model (2024)
4. X posts, market estimates (Mar 2025)
5. Fitch Ratings, U.S. Sovereign Outlook (Feb 2025)
6. S&P Global Ratings, Debt Maturity Report (2024)
7. Conference Board (Feb 2025); CNN Fear & Greed Index
8. BLS, GDP Archives (2022)
9. Goldman Sachs, Recession Odds (Jan 2025)

Today’s #CPI report will set the tone for markets. Here’s how different outcomes could play out:
Higher-than-Expected CPI (Stagflation Narrative)
Risk-off: Stocks (especially tech/growth) could drop, investors seek safety in bonds/commodities.
Weaker-than-Expected CPI (Recession Fears)
Risk-off: Cyclical stocks may suffer, safe havens like gold may rise.

#Bitcoin & Crypto Correlation with #SPX
BTC remains highly correlated with the S&P 500, which is in a correction phase. Any decline in stocks could drag crypto lower, as it’s still seen as a risky asset.

Safe-Haven Play: Gold & #PAXG
With uncertainty rising, investors are looking for safe-haven assets like T-bills or gold. #Gold (AUX) has been in a sustained uptrend since late 2023.
For crypto investors, PAX Gold (PAXG) offers an on-chain alternative. Each PAXG token is backed by 1 fine troy ounce of gold stored in London vaults, giving investors direct exposure to gold’s price movements.


BTC/Gold Ratio Signals Gold Preference
At this critical market point, gold is showing strength relative to $BTC
Stay vigilant.

Novices panic and react, while real Gs observe then act.

If you found this article useful, please like and share. Thank you

Right now, the market may seem irrational—despite bullish headlines on crypto adoption, prices aren’t mooning. But sophisticated investors don’t let narratives dictate their actions. We analyze where the data flows.


Key Findings:

Choppiness Index determines whether a market is trending or range-bound, the chart shows $BTC is still consolidating. This suggests a mean reversion phase.

However, the Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) test signals the TOTAL crypto market is shifting into a trending regime—but not UP. The divergence in the chart speaks for itself.

Short-Term Holder MVRV: Measures profit/loss of short-term BTC holders relative to their cost basis. Currently holders are at a loss, with the lower band at ~$74.6K. A break down below this level could trigger massive liquidations.

Conclusion: Yesterday, the Supertrend indicator triggered a #BTC downtrend. The market is experiencing a relief bounce today, but don’t be fooled into thinking the dip is over. Levels to watch are on the chart above.

If you found this article helpful, please like and share.
Novices panic & react. Real Gs observe, then act.

The combined market cap of the top 5 stablecoins has surpassed $200B for the first time ever. This signals a major shift in #market sentiment.
Risk-Off Mode?

Investors are parking capital in stablecoins, signaling caution.
🔸 The Fed’s reluctance to cut rates in 2025 raises market uncertainty.

🔸 $BTC correction below $70K is now a real possibility.

🔸 Stablecoins = sidelined liquidity, waiting for a better entry point.

Short Squeeze Loading?

🔻 Funding rates are negative, showing excessive short positioning.
This means traders are heavily betting on a further BTC drop. But if Bitcoin holds key support levels, a short squeeze could send prices flying. 🚀

"An idiot with a plan can beat a genius without a plan."
~ Warren Buffett

Novices panic and react, while real Gs observe then act. Stay sharp, Stay strategic.

Buckle up, crypto fam! Over the past week, BTC has seen $10K+ price swings, and altcoins are even wilder. More volatility is on the table, and here’s why.
$BTC

There’s growing concern about a potential global refinancing air pocket—a scenario where companies struggle to refinance debt due to high interest rates & tight credit. While it hasn’t happened yet, risks are building.
Imagine a plane hitting turbulence and suddenly dropping. That’s what happens in finance when debt refinancing dries up, causing capital to flee risky markets.
So far, looking at the data:
Funding Rate: 0.0095 (longs are paying shorts, meaning bullish bias)Open Interest: +6.49% (traders are loading up on positions)
What does this mean?

Leverage is building up
If macro conditions shift risk-off, we could see liquidations & wild swings
BTC and alts remain highly sensitive to liquidity shocks
If the global refinancing air pocket materializes, institutions may de-risk, triggering forced liquidations and big price swings.
The crypto markets are still in play, but the next moves will be highly reactive to liquidity conditions. Adapt & stay ahead!
Novices panic and react, while real Gs observe, then act.

1/ Trump’s Tariff Shock 🏛️
Trump’s new tariffs (25% on Canada/Mexico, +20% on China) have rattled global markets. Traders are taking profits, wiping out gains from his crypto reserve announcement.

2/ Elon vs. The Fed
Musk calls the Fed "absurdly overstaffed" while Gross Operating Profit (GOP) scrutiny adds uncertainty. Crypto, highly sensitive to macro policies, is feeling the heat. Without a clear pro-crypto stance or rate cuts, expect turbulence.
3/ Geopolitical Chaos & Market Risk 🌍
US halts military aid to UkraineEU ramps up €800B defense spending
History shows crypto struggles under geopolitical stress. Market down 14.7% in 24H to $2.64T. Risk-off mode activated.
4/ True Market Mean AVIV Ratio: BTC Overheated? 🔥
AVIV, which tracks BTC’s real cost basis, sits at a Z-score of 0.76, signaling an overbought market. This metric rarely lies—caution is warranted.

5/ Potential 61.8% Fibonacci Retracement Incoming? 📉🔄
BTC history shows deep retracements after long uptrends:
2010–2015: 23.6% retrace2015–2017: 38.2% retrace2020–2021: 50% retrace2023–Now: No major correction yet…
6/ BTC’s 90-day daily return skewness flipped negative (Feb 8), left tail growing = rising downside risk.

7/ We analysts dive where data flows, for history is not merely the past bestowed but the present explained, clear and profound.
Novices panic and react, while real Gs observe, then act. Stay Sharp. Stay Strategic.
$BTC

1/ Big moves in crypto! 🚀 Yesterday, President Trump announced a Crypto Strategic Reserve, aiming to make the U.S. the world's crypto capital. The market soared, with some tokens gaining 20% in a single daily candle. But was this an overreaction? 🧐

2/ According to the Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH), extreme reactions to news often correct themselves. And that’s exactly what’s happening today… 🔻
3/ The market is dumping. Some altcoins are already down 10%, and Bitcoin dominance is above 60%. BTC is the only crypto holding steady, signaling a flight to safety. ⚠️
4/ For sophisticated investors, risk management is key. 📉 With BTC dominance high and altcoins bleeding, allocation strategy matters. Be cautious to minimize risk exposure.
5/ Critical levels to watch:
🔹 $BTC – Resistance: 96,158.75 | Support: 91,412.42
🔹 $SOL – Resistance: 207.5 | Support: 131.91
🔹 $SUI – Resistance: 3.92 | Support: 2.54

6/ These levels aren’t random. They are derived from historical data, calculated using daily returns & statistical analysis to form probabilistic expectations. 🔬
7/ With crypto’s volatility, market structure can shift quickly. Smart money is already repositioning—are you? Stay sharp. ⚡
#Crypto #Bitcoin #Altcoins #Trump #MarketAnalysis