The Fed meeting is here, and honestly, the rate decision itself may not be the biggest story.
Markets have already priced in a 25 bps hike. The real question is what comes next.
Inflation is still stubborn. Oil is above $100. Treasury yields are high, with the 10-year pushing above 5%. The labor market has also shown enough strength to keep pressure on the Fed.
So this is the mess: raise rates too much and growth takes another hit. Do too little and inflation can stay sticky.
For Bitcoin, I’m watching the reaction, not the headline.
If the Fed sounds more hawkish than expected, yields and the dollar could rise, putting pressure on risk assets.
If the message is softer, yields could cool and crypto could catch a relief move.
The first Bitcoin candle could be pure chaos.
I’m watching bonds, the dollar, and rate expectations first.
The real signal isn’t “Did the Fed hike?”
It’s “What does the Fed plan to do next?”
#FedRateWatch
Markets have already priced in a 25 bps hike. The real question is what comes next.
Inflation is still stubborn. Oil is above $100. Treasury yields are high, with the 10-year pushing above 5%. The labor market has also shown enough strength to keep pressure on the Fed.
So this is the mess: raise rates too much and growth takes another hit. Do too little and inflation can stay sticky.
For Bitcoin, I’m watching the reaction, not the headline.
If the Fed sounds more hawkish than expected, yields and the dollar could rise, putting pressure on risk assets.
If the message is softer, yields could cool and crypto could catch a relief move.
The first Bitcoin candle could be pure chaos.
I’m watching bonds, the dollar, and rate expectations first.
The real signal isn’t “Did the Fed hike?”
It’s “What does the Fed plan to do next?”
#FedRateWatch
