Markets are bracing for a key Bank of Japan decision as expectations rise for a 25-basis-point hike in the overnight borrowing rate to 0.75% at the policy meeting ending Friday. If implemented, it would be the first rate increase since January and push Japan’s benchmark rate to its highest level since 1995. Under Governor Kazuo Ueda, the policy board is widely expected to approve the move unanimously, after several members earlier signaled support for tighter policy.
Confidence in a hike has strengthened as wage growth remains solid and the impact of U.S. tariffs appears less severe than feared. Even at 0.75%, BOJ officials reportedly view policy as still below a neutral level, with some considering 1% relatively accommodative.
The impact of these expectations has already been felt in the crypto market since yesterday. Rising rate expectations have increased short-term risk aversion, putting pressure on cryptocurrencies and triggering higher volatility. Bitcoin saw a mild pullback, but analysts view it as a healthy correction rather than a trend reversal. In fact, Bitcoin continues to be highlighted as “digital gold,” attracting long-term investors amid global policy uncertainty.
A more hawkish BOJ signal could support the yen but may push bond yields higher, complicating government budget planning. Overnight index swaps price a 95% chance of a hike. The policy statement is due around noon, followed by Ueda’s 15:30 press briefing.$BTC $BNB $ETH
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