S for ScaLper

$ETH is currently at a critical junction on the Monthly (Mo) timeframe. After a period of heavy distribution, price action is returning to a multi-year trendline that has historically defined the "Floor" for ETH.

​🔑 Key Technical Observations:
​The Horizontal Ceiling: We have a clear and established double-top resistance at the $4,955.76 level (All-Time High). This remains the ultimate magnet for the next major bull expansion.
​The Diagonal Floor: The red trendline originating from the $215.90 low is currently being tested. This is a "Make or Break" zone for long-term investors.
​Support Zone: Current price action around $1,906.39 is sitting right on structural support. As long as we hold above the $1,750–$1,850 liquidity pocket, the macro bullish structure remains intact.
​The Target: The vertical arrow highlights a massive potential recovery. If the current monthly candle closes with a strong wick (showing buy pressure), the path toward reclaiming the $3,000 and eventually the $4,955 level opens up.
​💡 The Strategy:
​We are currently in a Value Zone. While the short-term sentiment might be "fearful," the monthly chart suggests that we are retesting the very foundation of the previous bull runs.
​Note: Watch the monthly close carefully. A solid hold here confirms that the "Big Money" is still protecting these levels.
#RiskAssetsMarketShock #MarketCorrection #WhenWillBTCRebound #WarshFedPolicyOutlook #ADPDataDisappoints

A Global Market Reset Is Quietly Taking Shape. 😲
What Is Happening Right Now Is Not Random, And It Is Not Isolated.
Most Investors Are Focused On Daily Price Action.
They Are Missing The Bigger Strategic Shift Playing Out In Real Time.
This Is Not About Headlines Or Emotions.
This Is About Energy, Power, And Capital Control.
VENEZUELA IS THE CENTERPIECE
Venezuela Holds The Largest Proven Crude Oil Reserves On Earth.
Roughly 303 Billion Barrels, A Strategic Asset Of Global Importance.
China Is Venezuela’s Primary Buyer.
Around 80–85% Of Venezuelan Crude Flows Directly To China.
That Oil Is Not Just Fuel.
It Is Leverage Over Manufacturing, Growth, And Inflation.
CUTTING ENERGY IS CUTTING POWER
When Access To Venezuelan Oil Is Restricted,
China Loses Its Cheapest And Most Reliable Energy Source.
This Is Not About Regime Change Or Politics.
It Is About Denying Strategic Inputs To A Global Competitor.
This Strategy Did Not Start In Venezuela.
It Has Been Repeated Across Multiple Energy Corridors.
IRAN FOLLOWS THE SAME PLAYBOOK
China Is Also The Largest Buyer Of Iranian Oil.
Pressure On Iran In 2025 Targeted The Same Objective.
Same Mechanism.
Different Geography.
ENERGY DENIAL IS ECONOMIC WARFARE
This Is Not “Taking Oil.”
This Is Restricting Access To Supply, Pricing Power, And Stability.
Denying China:
Cheap Energy
Reliable Supply Chains
Strategic Influence In The Western Hemisphere
TIMING MATTERS 🌟
Political Transitions In Venezuela Were Not Sudden.
They Were Negotiated Under Heavy External Pressure.
The Timing Of Recent Events Coincided With Chinese Diplomatic Talks.
That Is Not An Accident.
That Is A Message.
THE RESPONSE PHASE BEGINS ☢️
China Has Already Started Responding Through Resources.
From January 2026, Restrictions On Silver Exports Are In Place.
Silver Is Not Just A Metal.
It Is A Critical Industrial And Monetary Input.
This Signals A Shift Toward Resource-Based Negotiation.
Energy For Metals.
Supply For Leverage.
MARKET IMPACT PATHWAY
If Negotiations Escalate Or Break Down, Markets React Fast.
Oil Prices Rise As Supply Risk Is Repriced.
Inflation Expectations Rebound.
Emerging Markets Feel Stress First.
Developed Markets Follow With A Lag.
The Dollar Strengthens Short-Term.
Liquidity Tightens Across Risk Assets.
Crypto And High-Beta Assets Flush First.
Long-Term Hedging Demand Appears Later.
THIS IS NOT A NORMAL CYCLE 📉
This Is Not A Simple Bull Or Bear Market.
This Is Great-Power Competition Entering The Energy Layer.
Energy Controls Growth.
Growth Controls Currency.
Currency Controls Markets.
By The Time This Becomes Obvious In Headlines,
Most Positioning Will Already Be Wrong.
SURVIVING 2026 REQUIRES A DIFFERENT MINDSET💪💵.
This Is A Period Of Strategic Realignment, Not Short-Term Noise.
Risk Management And Macro Awareness Matter More Than Ever.
Those Who Understand Capital Flows Early Stay Ahead.
Those Who React Late Become Liquidity For Others.
Position Accordingly⚠️🙏.
Follow for more and like it.
#FedHoldsRates #GoldOnTheRise #WhoIsNextFedChair #VIRBNB #TokenizedSilverSurge

This Image Explains More Than Most Headlines Ever Will.
What You Are Seeing Here Is Not A Coincidence.
It Is A Chain Reaction.
And It Always Starts With One Thing:
👉 A WEAKENING U.S. DOLLAR.
When The Dollar Loses Strength, It Does Not Happen In Isolation.
It Sends Shockwaves Across Every Asset Class, Every Economy, And Every Household.
Let’s Break This Down Clearly And Professionally 👇
🔻 1) WEAK DOLLAR = HIGHER INFLATION
When The Dollar Falls, Purchasing Power Shrinks.
Imports Become More Expensive.
Everyday Goods Cost More.
This Is Why People Feel Poorer Even When Markets Look “Up”.
Inflation Is Not A Statistic — It Is A Tax On Savings.
🏆 2) WEAK DOLLAR = RISING GOLD & SILVER
Gold And Silver Do Not Pump Because Of Hype.
They Rise When Trust In Paper Money Declines.
Historically, Precious Metals Act As:
• Inflation Hedges
• Currency Protection
• Confidence Indicators
When Gold And Silver Move Together, It Signals Defensive Capital Positioning.
Big Money Is Not Chasing Returns — It Is Protecting Value.
₿ 3) WEAK DOLLAR = STRONGER BITCOIN & CRYPTO
Bitcoin Thrives When Fiat Weakens.
Why?
Because Bitcoin Is Not Tied To Central Bank Decisions.
It Cannot Be Printed.
It Cannot Be Devalued By Policy.
In A Weak Dollar Environment:
• Capital Looks For Scarcity
• Liquidity Looks For Asymmetric Upside
• Bitcoin Becomes A Monetary Alternative
This Is Why Crypto Often Moves Before Traditional Markets React.
📦 4) WEAK DOLLAR = WEAKER GLOBAL DEMAND FOR U.S. GOODS
A Falling Dollar Sounds Helpful For Exports — Until Inflation And Instability Kick In.
When Confidence Drops:
• Trade Slows
• Global Demand Weakens
• Economic Growth Suffers
This Is How Currency Weakness Turns Into Real Economic Pressure.
🧠 THE BIG PICTURE MOST PEOPLE MISS
This Is Not About One Chart.
This Is About The Monetary System Adjusting In Real Time.
A Weak Dollar Means:
• Rising Asset Prices In Nominal Terms
• Falling Purchasing Power In Reality
• Capital Rotation Into Hard Assets
Markets May Look Strong.
But The Measuring Stick Is Breaking.
⚠️ FINAL THOUGHT
Gold Is Not Just Rising.
Bitcoin Is Not Just Pumping.
Inflation Is Not “Temporary”.
They Are All Telling The Same Story:
👉 Confidence In Fiat Is Being Repriced.
Those Who Understand This Early Protect Their Capital.
Those Who Ignore It Learn The Hard Way.
Stay Informed.
Stay Strategic.
And Always Watch The Dollar First 🔍.

🚨 For The First Time Since 2011, The Federal Reserve Is Preparing For A Market-Stabilizing Currency Operation.

This Is Not Routine.
This Is A Structural Event With Global Consequences.
Forget Short-Term Headlines.
Forget Noise Around Tariffs Or Temporary Narratives.
The Real Story Is Happening Inside The Currency System.

WHAT IS ACTUALLY HAPPENING
The U.S. Is Stepping In To Support The Japanese Yen.
And The Only Way To Do That Is By Weakening The U.S. Dollar.

This Is Not Speculation.
This Is How Currency Intervention Works.
→ Japan’s Bond Yields Are At Multi-Decade Highs
→ The Yen Has Been Under Sustained Pressure
→ USD/JPY Reached Extreme Stress Levels

When Currency Markets Reach This Point,
Central Banks Do Not Wait.
They Act.
THE SIGNAL MOST PEOPLE MISSED
Last Week, The New York Fed Conducted Rate Checks On USD/JPY.
Historically, This Is The Final Step Before Direct Intervention.

No Official Announcement Was Needed.
Markets Reacted Immediately.
Because History Remembers.

THIS HAS HAPPENED BEFORE
In 1985, The Plaza Accord Changed Everything.

The U.S. Dollar Was Too Strong.
Exports Were Collapsing.
Trade Imbalances Were Exploding.

So The U.S., Japan, Germany, France, And The UK Coordinated.
→ Dollars Were Sold
→ Foreign Currencies Were Bought
→ USD Was Intentionally Devalued

The Result Was Historic.
→ Dollar Index Fell Nearly 50%
→ USD/JPY Collapsed From 260 To 120
→ The Yen Effectively Doubled

Markets Did Not Fight It.
They Followed It.
We Saw A Similar Playbook In 1998.
Japan Alone Failed.
U.S. And Japan Together Succeeded.

Coordination Changes Everything.
WHAT THIS MEANS FOR MARKETS
When The U.S. Sells Dollars And Buys Yen:
→ The Dollar Weakens
→ Global Liquidity Improves
→ Asset Prices Begin To Reprice.

This Is Textbook Macro Mechanics.
It Sounds Bullish On The Surface.
But Timing Matters.
THE RISK MOST PEOPLE ARE IGNORING

Stocks Are Already At All-Time Highs.
Gold Is Already At All-Time Highs.
Risk Appetite Is Stretched.

At The Same Time,
Hundreds Of Billions Are Still Trapped In The Yen Carry Trade.

When The Yen Strengthens Too Quickly:
→ Leverage Gets Forced Out
→ Risk Assets Sell First
→ Volatility Explodes

We Saw This In August 2024.
A Small BOJ Signal
→ Yen Spiked
→ Bitcoin Fell Over 20% In Days
→ Hundreds Of Billions Were Wiped Out

Yen Strength Is Short-Term Risk ⚠️
Dollar Weakness Is Long-Term Opportunity

TWO PHASES, TWO DIFFERENT TRADES
Short Term:
→ Volatility
→ Forced Liquidations
→ Risk-Off Moves

Medium To Long Term:
→ Higher Liquidity
→ Currency Debasement
→ Asset Repricing

This Is How Macro Cycles Transition.

FINAL THOUGHT
This Is Not A Prediction.
This Is A Historical Pattern Repeating.

Currency Intervention Does Not Create Calm.
It Creates Change.
And Change Always Starts With Volatility.
Those Who Understand This Will Be Positioned.
Those Who Ignore It Will React Too Late.
Stay Focused.
Stay Disciplined.
Stay Ahead ➜
BUCKLE UP -- HUGE WEEK AHEAD
Markets are walking into multiple volatility triggers:
🧨 Canada tariff threat (100%) -- Monday
🏛️ Government shutdown risk (~75%) -- Monday
📊 January Consumer Confidence -- Tuesday
🏦 Fed rate decision + Powell presser -- Wednesday
🖥️ MSFT, META, TSLA earnings -- Wednesday
🍎 AAPL earnings -- Thursday
📈 December PPI inflation data -- Friday
Macro + policy + megacap earnings all collide this week. 🔥
#FedWatch #USIranStandoff #HISTORY #StrategyBTCPurchase #Mag7Earnings