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Is Bitcoin's recession priced in?

According to a cryptocurrency researcher, Bitcoin (BTC) may have significant upside potential from here, as its current price appears disproportionate to future macroeconomic expectations. Andrej Dragosh, head of research at Bitwise Europe, stated in a post on X on Friday: "The last time I saw such an asymmetric risk-reward ratio was during the COVID pandemic," referring to March 2020 when global fears of the pandemic caused Bitcoin's price to plummet from around $8,000 to below $5,000.

Dragosh said that while Bitcoin's current setup reflects the extreme risk-reward conditions seen during the COVID-19 pandemic, it is also "priced into the most pessimistic outlook for global growth since 2022," referring to a period marked by significant quantitative tightening by the US Federal Reserve and the collapse of the cryptocurrency exchange FTX. He adds that Bitcoin is "priced into" a stagnant economic environment.

“Bitcoin is essentially pricing in a stagnant growth environment,” says Dragush, arguing that the asset has already priced in “a lot of bad news.” He adds that global growth is likely to rebound from here, driven by the effects of “previous monetary stimulus,” which he believes could support accelerated growth until 2026, similar to what it did after the COVID-19 pandemic.

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