BTC Outlook: Monthly CHOCH and the 50 Percent Retracement Setup
Entry: 103,587 Stop Loss: 116,740 Take Profit: 94,028
This BTC outlook is based on Smart Money Concepts using only candlesticks. The key signal begins with the last strong monthly candle before the market dropped. That candle becomes the main candle. The shift starts when the next monthly candle fails to break the high of that main candle. This is the first sign of trend continuation failure. The CHOCH is confirmed when price takes out the low of the main candle, showing a clear break in structure and a move away from bullish order flow.
After the CHOCH, the expectation is simple. Price usually pulls back toward the 50 percent level of the main candle before continuing lower. This midpoint acts as a premium sell zone because it aligns with where institutions prefer to position themselves. Once price retraces there, the trade becomes straightforward.
Entry Criteria (Sell):
1. Identify the main candle: the last monthly candle with a swing high that the next candle fails to break.
2. CHOCH forms when the low of that main candle is taken out, usually leaving a Fair Value Gap between the low of the candle and the close of the candle that breaks it.
3. Wait for price to pull back to the 50 percent level of the main candle. Place stop loss above the swing high and target the previous swing low.
Analysis is done on the Monthly timeframe, but entries and refinements appear clearly when zoomed into the Daily chart. This method is clean, repeatable, and requires no indicators.
This entry reminded me of something every trader eventually learns: a strategy without a stop loss and take profit is not a strategy at all.
Before I took this trade last night, I thought about those near-TP moments in the past — trades that looked perfect, only to reverse and hit my stop. That reflection made one thing clear:
Every strategy needs three pillars to stand on:
1. A reason for entry, grounded in market structure. 2. A stop loss that protects you and should never be adjusted. 3. A take profit that is based on logic, not hope.
Trading isn’t about chasing perfection. It’s about building discipline into your process so that even when a setup doesn’t work, your rules still protect you.
لقد احتفظت بهذا المركز BTC/USDT لأسابيع - أواجه التقلبات، والصعود، والهبوط، وكل ما بينهما. من الدخول المبكر إلى مشاهدة السوق تختبر صبري، كانت درسًا حقيقيًا في الانضباط.
الآن ها نحن هنا في صباح يوم الاثنين: السعر يتلاعب بالدعم ما زلت داخل منطقة الإعداد الخاصة بي
السؤال الكبير → هل أقفلها، أم أتركها تستمر؟
التداول ليس مجرد مخططات، إنه يتعلق بالعقلية. الاحتفاظ بهذا الشكل لفترة طويلة أظهر لي أن القناعة + إدارة المخاطر أهم من مطاردة الأرباح السريعة.
إذًا، ماذا ستفعل هنا؟ هل تقفل وتأخذ الدرس؟ أم تحتفظ للصورة الأكبر؟
How I Turned $2 into $1,000 Using Margin Trading Skills I started my Binance journey with just 2 USDT — not exactly “whale” capital. But with my forex trading experience, I knew how to spot opportunities, manage risk, and leverage small amounts into bigger plays. Here’s what I did: 1. Start Small, Think Big With 2 USDT, I took a 20x margin loan, giving me a $40 trading position. This is where skill from forex came in — tight stop-losses, clear take-profit targets, and only trading pairs I understood. 2. Reinvest Profits for Bigger Margin Profits from each trade increased my equity, which meant I could take slightly bigger positions with the same risk discipline. $2 to $65 was all about compounding and avoiding overexposure. 3. Scaling to $1,000 Once at $65, the game changed. I could hold bigger trades without over-leveraging, and my margin ratio stayed healthy. Profits built faster, snowballing until I hit $1,000 in trading capital. Key Lessons: Leverage is a tool, not a magic wand. Use it to multiply good trades, not to gamble.Margin ratio is your safety net. Never let it get dangerously low.Compound with discipline. Reinvest profits steadily instead of going “all-in” every time. Margin trading can accelerate growth, but it also carries high risk — you can lose more than your initial investment. Always trade with a plan and never risk funds you can’t afford to lose. From $2 to $1,000 wasn’t luck — it was strategy, patience, and knowing when not to trade.
A few days back, I said something that might have sounded bold: "Crypto is like centralised banking, but on a bigger, borderless scale. Instead of hiding bad debt histories and moving between banks, the crypto ecosystem acts as a massive, transparent reservoir of capital. Traders borrow, earn, and build wealth here. Just as you’d own gold, you can own crypto — but unlike gold, it’s also a currency for global exchange. The more people accept it, the higher its value climbs, much like the dollar." Well… here we are. BTC has smashed through $120K, and my portfolio has surged over +2966% in just a week. With 78% BTC allocation, 20% BNB, and a small 1% GUN, this has been a perfect storm of momentum, adoption, and market sentiment. The core idea remains the same — Bitcoin isn’t just a speculative asset anymore; it’s becoming the backbone of a new financial system. Every merchant that accepts it, every investor that holds it, and every nation that recognizes it strengthens its position as both store of value and medium of exchange. If BTC at $120K feels high, remember the same thing was said when it was $10K. The next major psychological level? $150K — and if adoption keeps growing, that may only be the beginning. The lesson? This market rewards conviction. If you believe in the fundamentals, you ride the waves, not fear them.
Why “The Money Changers” should be on every trader’s reading list #TheKumcescEntry “Money is just a good bargain and a gamble on value now and value later.”
This idea cuts to the core of trading and investing. Every trade, every investment, is a decision about what something is worth now versus what it might be worth in the future. You are constantly weighing today’s certainty against tomorrow’s uncertainty. In The Money Changers, the story unpacks how capital flows, market sentiment, and human behavior shape the value of money over time. It’s not just about currency exchange — it’s about understanding the forces behind the price of value itself. For traders and finance professionals, the lesson is clear: Price is the surface. Value is the depth.Markets are negotiations between present perception and future expectation.Risk is the bridge between “now” and “later.” When you approach money as both a bargain and a gamble, you trade with more awareness of the psychology, leverage, and timing at play. Reading The Money Changers before stepping into the markets can give you this lens — before the market teaches it the hard way. Takeaway: Treat each trade as a calculated bargain on time and value. That’s where the edge lies.
With Wednesday’s U.S. CPI release on the horizon, today’s market tone is all about positioning ahead of the data. For GBPUSD and BTCUSDT traders, here’s what to watch: 1. CPI Anticipation – Inflation numbers are due tomorrow, but dollar flows and risk appetite could shift today as traders take defensive positions. Any strong USD buying could pressure GBPUSD and weigh on crypto sentiment. 2. GBPUSD Key Levels – The pair is trading near [insert actual level, e.g., 1.2700]. A break below support could open the path toward [next support], while a push above [resistance] might signal pre-CPI bullish positioning. 3. BTCUSDT Consolidation – Bitcoin is holding around [insert actual price, e.g., $29,800]. Sideways action may persist until CPI, but watch for liquidity grabs near recent highs and lows as larger players position for the release. 4. Dollar Index & Yields – DXY is steady near resistance, while U.S. yields remain firm. A sudden move in either could dictate direction for both GBPUSD and BTCUSDT. 5. Cross-Market Sentiment – Equity futures, oil prices, and bond market tone can quickly spill over. A risk-off shift today could see the dollar strengthen and BTC weaken in tandem. Market Outlook: Expect low conviction moves during the European and early U.S. session, with the real action likely clustering around stops and key technical levels.
Anyone can open a trade. Not everyone can hold one, grow it, and scale in as the market moves in their favor.
Right now, I’m holding BTC — with my target in sight. As profits grow, I’ll borrow against them to add positions. Why? Because I see Bitcoin as more than a chart ticker.
To me, BTC is like land or real estate: a scarce, high-value asset you hold because the world wants it. But it’s also something more — a legal tender in the making, a currency for exchange that the market itself is validating. The higher the adoption, the higher the value and just like prime real estate, there’s only so much of it to go around.
This is not just a trade. It’s a conviction.
It’s the mindset of playing both offense and defense in the same move — securing profits while building ownership in the future of money.
This market is headed for 180k. Go and read this article to understand why. https://www.binance.com/en/square/post/28165142895042
mglbkr_trade
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مرحبًا أيها المتداولون،
لقد تمكنت BTC مرة أخرى من الوصول إلى علامة 122 ألف دولار - ونعم، هناك فرصة حقيقية لتحقيق ارتفاع جديد. الضجة حقيقية... ولكن الحذر كذلك. على الإطار الزمني اليومي، يرسم مخطط BTC شكل وتد صعودي هابط - نمط غالبًا ما يشير إلى احتمالية انخفاض. صدقني، أود أن أظل متفائلاً بنسبة 100%، لكن المخططات تهمس بقصة مختلفة، ولا يمكننا تجاهلها.
المستويات الرئيسية للمراقبة:
إشارة هبوطية: إغلاق يومي أدنى من خط الدعم قد يشير إلى مشاكل.
Why I’m Still Buying — and Why I Believe It Won’t Stop Growing
I’ve been placing buys and posting about it because I believe this run is far from over.
Here’s why: Crypto operates more like a centralised capital reservoir for its own ecosystem than the “wild” decentralised banking of the past. In old systems, defaulters could hide their credit history and borrow elsewhere, causing cracks in economic balance. In the crypto ecosystem, capital is pooled, loans are issued, and interest flows back in — strengthening the system.
It’s not just a speculative coin. It’s an accepted asset and a currency for exchange. Just like gold, it stores value. But unlike gold, it moves instantly, globally, and without physical transfer. The more people adopt and accept it as payment, the stronger its demand — and the higher its price. The dollar rose because it was trusted, accepted, and used. Crypto is on the same path — but faster. The takeaway? The more you value it, the more the world will. The more the world values it, the higher it goes.
You think trading is about winning trades. It’s not.
Here’s what you only discover after the hype fades and the reality hits:
1. The Market Doesn’t Care About You: Your perfect analysis means nothing if you’re on the wrong side of liquidity. Price moves to fill orders, not to respect your trendline.
2. High Win Rate Is a Trap: You can be right most of the time and still lose money. Without solid risk-to-reward discipline, a single bad trade can erase weeks of “wins.”
3. News Can Be a Setup… For Your Losses: The market doesn’t always move logically after big announcements. More often, it fakes one direction to grab stops, then runs the other way.
4. Patience Is the Real Skill: Anyone can learn a strategy. Few can wait for the perfect setup without forcing trades. The hardest trade you’ll ever make is no trade at all.
The sooner you accept these truths, the sooner you trade like a pro.
What if I told you the most profitable traders often do nothing?
Sounds strange, right? But in the markets, restraint can be your greatest weapon.
Think about it—how many times have you jumped into a trade too early… only to watch the real move happen after you were already out?
How many times have you chased green candles, only to be caught in a sudden drop?
The truth is simple:
Trading is not a race. It’s a waiting game.
The market is a relentless test of your discipline—and most fail not because they lack skill, but because they lack patience.
Patience means: • Letting trades come to you instead of forcing them. • Holding your winners until the plan says exit—not your emotions. • Sitting on the sidelines when the market offers noise, not opportunity.
In the long run, your profits won’t come from the number of trades you take, but from the quality of trades you choose.
Fast hands lose money. Steady hands grow it.
So ask yourself—are you here to trade often… or to trade well?
BTC/USDT: الثيران يدافعون عن مستوى 120 ألف دولار لحدوث كسر، بينما الدببة تحافظ على السعر مغلقا بالقرب من متوسط 50 يوم الأسي. يمكن أن يحدد التصادم هنا الاتجاه المقبل للصعود أو الهبوط (DailyForex).
GBP/USD: منطقة 1.344–1.345 هي ساحة معركة رئيسية حيث تواجه محاولات كسر الثيران مقاومة من الدببة في تداخل قناة هابطة - هنا يمكن أن يتم تحديد اتجاه السوق (TradingView).
1. BTC/USDT المقاومة الحرجة تتواجد حول 120 ألف دولار، وهو سقف نفسي قامت بيتكوين باختباره مرارًا مؤخرًا وفقًا لتقرير DailyForexMarketPulse. قد يؤدي الإغلاق اليومي فوق هذا المستوى إلى حدوث اختراق قوي.
على الجانب السفلي، الدعم يحوم بالقرب من مستوى 110 آلاف دولار، مع احتمالية حدوث تراجعات أعمق نحو 104 آلاف دولار إذا تم كسر هذا المستوى (DailyForex).
نمط علم الثور المحدد جيدًا يتشكل على الرسم البياني H4. قد يؤدي الاختراق من هذا النمط إلى دفع السعر نحو 125 ألف دولار، بينما سيتسبب الانهيار تحت ~ 114.5 ألف دولار في إبطال الإعداد (MarketPulse).
2. GBP/USD الزوج يقترب من منطقة تقاطع مقاومة قوية حول 1.344–1.345، حيث يجلس عند تقاطع قناة هابطة ومستوى أفقي (TradingView).
يمكن أن يؤدي الرفض من هنا إلى دفع الأسعار نحو الأسفل نحو منطقة 1.3250 (TradingView).
وفي الوقت نفسه، على الرسم البياني اليومي، يتشكل نمط رأس وكتفين مع خط رقبة بالقرب من 1.327 مما يهيئ المسرح لحدوث انهيار، مما يعزز النظرة السلبية إذا تم تأكيدها (TradingView).
"GBPUSD Zone Markup: Where Bulls and Bears Might Collide"
GBPUSD is hovering around the 1.3430–1.3450 zone, with short-term pressure easing as the Dollar loses some traction (FXStreet).
Immediate resistance is seen at 1.3460, then 1.3500 (near the 200-period SMA). Support lies at 1.3385–1.3400, backed by the 100-period SMA and Fibonacci 38.2% (FXStreet).
Another view shows price approaching a confluence zone of down-trend channel resistance near 1.3442–1.3450. A rejection here could target 1.3250, unless the pair breaks above 1.3450 (TradingView)
1. BTCUSDT Key Zone Highlights Bitcoin is currently consolidating just above the $116,500–$117,000 support level, which aligns with prior breakout zones and the 4-hour 20 EMA (TradingView).
Bullish scenario: A decisive break above $118,600 could propel BTC toward $120,500–$122,000 in the coming days (TradingView).
Bearish scenario: A close below $114,500 risks a drop to $112,800–$111,900, with extended correction to $110,200, if that critical support fails (TradingView).
Momentum is supported by EMAs: BTC is trading above EMA7 ($115,850), EMA25 ($115,640), and well above EMA99 (~$108,700) (Binance).
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