Bitcoin has slipped from its recent all-time high above ~$126,000 to trading near ~$100,000–$108,000.
Technical indicators show it has broken below its 200-day moving average (around ~$108K) which is a bearish sign.
On-chain data suggests the market is entering an “extremely bearish” phase, with a risk of downside to ~$72,000 if support fails.
🔍 Key Drivers
Leverage unwind: Much of the speculative leverage in perpetual futures has been cleared, which analysts at JPMorgan Chase & Co. view as a positive setup for future upside.
Macro & sentiment headwinds: Uncertain interest-rate policy, weaker risk appetite and broader market pullback are weighing on Bitcoin.
Institutional framing: Beginnings of Bitcoin being compared to gold in a “store of value” role. JPMorgan values it on a volatility-adjusted basis relative to gold and sees fair value much higher.
🎯 What to Watch
Support zone: ~$100,000 is key. A dip below could open targets toward ~$90,000 or even ~$70,000.
Resistance: ~$110,000-$112,000 is a short-term hurdle tied to the 50-day average and prior support turned resistance.
Upside scenario: If Bitcoin holds above support and macro conditions improve, JPMorgan’s target of ~$170,000 within 6-12 months is cited.
🧮 My Short Summary
Bitcoin is at a crossroads: it’s currently under pressure, with signals pointing to caution. However, clearing of speculative leverage and an improved relative value framework suggest that if it can stabilize, the stage could be set for the next leg up. Conversely, failing to hold critical support could trigger a deeper correction. For now, the risk-reward is tilted toward caution rather than guaranteed breakout. #ADPJobsSurge #BinanceHODLerMMT #PrivacyCoinSurge
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