Jumi - Crypto Insight

There’s been a lot of talk recently about tokens dumping hard after listing on @binance . Let's look at the data across all exchanges for a broader perspective.

❌ The Reality: A sea of red. The loss rate for buying new listings ranges from 87-93% market-wide.
✅ Performance Ranking (Win Rate):
🥇 Coinbase: 13.2%
🥈 Kraken: 12.5%
🥉 Binance: 11.9% ...
🔻 Lowest: Cryptocom (6.9%), Bithumb (7.7%), Kucoin (8.7%).

3 Key Takeaways for this Cycle:
1️⃣ Listing is no longer a "Money Printer": Unlike 2021, current ROI is mostly NEGATIVE regardless of the exchange. Market Makers and VCs have changed the game.
2️⃣ Binance FUD is emotional: The data proves Binance remains Tier 1 in terms of project quality (Top 3).
3️⃣ New Strategy: Instead of blindly FOMOing into the listing candle:
▪️Check FDV carefully (avoid overvaluation).
▪️Monitor the Orderbook and Real Volume.
▪️Be patient and wait for price equilibrium.
#BİNANCE

سوق العملات المشفرة يشهد تقلبات كبيرة نحو نهاية نوفمبر 2025، مع وصول القيمة السوقية الإجمالية العالمية (بما في ذلك البيتكوين) إلى حوالي 2.84 تريليون دولار، وفقًا لـ CoinMarketCap. يتداول البيتكوين (BTC) حول 87,230 دولار، بزيادة قدرها 1.76% في آخر 24 ساعة، بينما يجلس الإيثريوم (ETH) عند 2,839 دولار، مرتفعًا بنسبة 1.78% خلال نفس الفترة. ومع ذلك، تحت هذا الاستقرار السطحي تكمن إشارات فنية هامة تشير إلى احتمال بدء دورة جديدة من العملات البديلة - مشابهة لما حدث في 2021. توفر هذه المقالة تحليلًا متعمقًا استنادًا إلى أحدث بيانات السوق، مع التركيز على TOTAL3/BTC وهيمنة BTC بينما تقارن الظروف الحالية بالدورات التاريخية.

TL;DR
The Fear and Greed Index stands at 24 (extreme fear) on November 13, 2025, close to the record low of 15 on March 11, 2025.
Despite Bitcoin holding above $100,000, on-chain data shows strong whale accumulation, record net outflows, and a 14% decline in exchange reserves this year.
Bitcoin’s individual Fear & Greed Index is 15, the lowest since February 27, 2025.
Historical Context of Extreme Fear
A BTC Fear & Greed reading below 20 often marks major market bottoms.
The level of 15 on March 11, 2025 marked the yearly low around $80,000.
The market then rebounded 40% to $112,000 within two weeks.
Historical extreme fear events:
• COVID crash (Mar 2020): Index ~10, BTC from $8,000 → $4,000 → +1,400%
• Terra Luna collapse (Jun 2022): Index 8, bear-market bottom at $18,000
• Crypto Winter (Dec 2018): Index 5, bottom at $3,200
Current Market Sentiment
The total crypto Fear & Greed Index sits at 24, showing “irrational fear” despite BTC remaining in the six-figure zone — a classic reversal condition.
On-Chain Data: Silent Accumulation
Despite negative sentiment, blockchain data tells a different story:
• Record net outflow: –7,500 BTC/day (14D SMA), lowest in 3 years
• Exchange reserves down: 2.39M BTC — lowest in 7 years, down 14% YTD
• Whale accumulation: +45,000 BTC this week — 2nd largest in 2025
• Long-term holders: absorbing supply from short-term sellers capitulating at a loss
Bitcoin is trading below all major moving averages, but the daily RSI is near oversold (30), a common reversal zone.
Derivatives Market
• Open interest: –1.57% (24h), leverage leaving the system
• Max Pain: $103,000 (Nov 13), acting as resistance
• Long liquidations: 83% ($133M), signaling capitulation
Conclusion: Opportunity Within Fear
Extreme fear + positive on-chain accumulation creates a strong contrarian setup.
Historically, 80% of Fear & Greed readings below 25 lead to 10–30% rallies within 1–4 weeks.
Bullish scenario:
• Hold above $101,500 → targets $103,000 → $110,000
Risk scenario:
• Break below $100,000 → cascade liquidations toward $98,000
As Warren Buffett said:
“Be greedy when others are fearful.”
And right now, the market is deeply fearful.