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ترجمة
BITCOIN’S 4-YEAR CYCLE ISN’T DEAD — IT’S PLAYING OUT EXACTLY ON TIME.
Zoom out, ignore the noise, and look at the roadmap Bitcoin has followed for over a decade.
The long-term chart gives one of the cleanest signals in crypto:
Cycle Peak Timing:
→ 2012
→ 2017
→ 2021
→ 2025 loading…
Every top has landed roughly 1,420–1,450 days apart — almost like clockwork.
And after every peak, one brutal truth repeats:
2012 top → -79% crash
2017 top → -81% crash
2021 top → -75% crash
Same structure. Same timing. Same macro psychology.
So when people say “This time is different,” the chart says:
No — this time is the same. And the next major peak is lining up for 2025.
If history repeats, we’re entering the final acceleration phase.
Stay focused. Stay strategic.
The real move hasn’t even started yet.
#CYCLE
Zoom out, ignore the noise, and look at the roadmap Bitcoin has followed for over a decade.
The long-term chart gives one of the cleanest signals in crypto:
Cycle Peak Timing:
→ 2012
→ 2017
→ 2021
→ 2025 loading…
Every top has landed roughly 1,420–1,450 days apart — almost like clockwork.
And after every peak, one brutal truth repeats:
2012 top → -79% crash
2017 top → -81% crash
2021 top → -75% crash
Same structure. Same timing. Same macro psychology.
So when people say “This time is different,” the chart says:
No — this time is the same. And the next major peak is lining up for 2025.
If history repeats, we’re entering the final acceleration phase.
Stay focused. Stay strategic.
The real move hasn’t even started yet.
#CYCLE
ترجمة
$XRP Price Prediction: What Will Happen to XRP in 2026?
XRP's price has continued to be under pressure in recent weeks as successive recovery attempts have not been strong enough to reverse the trend. Closing out 2025, the altcoin remains in a weak state, reflecting the prolonged caution of the market. Thin spot demand and defensive sentiment among individual investors make it difficult for XRP to make a clear breakout, although selling pressure has been somewhat contained.
A notable highlight comes from institutional investment. According to CoinShares data, in the week ending December 27th alone, XRP recorded $70 million in inflows, bringing the total inflow for the month to $424 million. For the entire year of 2025, XRP is expected to attract approximately $3.3 billion in investment, significantly outperforming other major assets like Bitcoin and Ethereum during the same period. XRP ETFs launched this year have also maintained stable inflows, with no significant net outflows yet, demonstrating long-term confidence from institutions.
However, conversely, the behavior of long-term holders signals caution. On-chain data shows a dominant distribution trend in Q4 2025, reflecting a decline in medium-term confidence. If this state continues into 2026, XRP could face a prolonged accumulation phase or a deeper correction.
Currently, XRP is trading around $1.87, a sharp decline in Q4. To re-establish an uptrend, the price needs to sustainably break above $3. Conversely, losing the $1.79 support zone could open up the risk of a drop to the $1.50 area in the early months of 2026.
XRP's price has continued to be under pressure in recent weeks as successive recovery attempts have not been strong enough to reverse the trend. Closing out 2025, the altcoin remains in a weak state, reflecting the prolonged caution of the market. Thin spot demand and defensive sentiment among individual investors make it difficult for XRP to make a clear breakout, although selling pressure has been somewhat contained.
A notable highlight comes from institutional investment. According to CoinShares data, in the week ending December 27th alone, XRP recorded $70 million in inflows, bringing the total inflow for the month to $424 million. For the entire year of 2025, XRP is expected to attract approximately $3.3 billion in investment, significantly outperforming other major assets like Bitcoin and Ethereum during the same period. XRP ETFs launched this year have also maintained stable inflows, with no significant net outflows yet, demonstrating long-term confidence from institutions.
However, conversely, the behavior of long-term holders signals caution. On-chain data shows a dominant distribution trend in Q4 2025, reflecting a decline in medium-term confidence. If this state continues into 2026, XRP could face a prolonged accumulation phase or a deeper correction.
Currently, XRP is trading around $1.87, a sharp decline in Q4. To re-establish an uptrend, the price needs to sustainably break above $3. Conversely, losing the $1.79 support zone could open up the risk of a drop to the $1.50 area in the early months of 2026.
ترجمة
$pippin Analysis
PIPPIN has made a strong impression on investors over the past month, although its growth momentum has slowed somewhat in recent weeks. Despite the less-than-spectacular price movements, this meme coin still recorded a 16% increase. Although the uptrend is slowing, PIPPIN's performance still outperforms many altcoins in the same segment.
Technical signals still indicate a positive outlook. The Parabolic SAR indicator continues to confirm the uptrend, reinforcing the bullish structure. If the momentum is maintained, PIPPIN could surpass the $0.434 mark, opening up opportunities to conquer key resistance zones at $0.500 and $0.600.
On the other hand, downside risk will emerge if investors tend to take profits. Increased selling pressure could push PIPPIN below the $0.366 support zone. If this trend is confirmed, technical strength will weaken, erasing recent gains and invalidating the bullish outlook.
PIPPIN has made a strong impression on investors over the past month, although its growth momentum has slowed somewhat in recent weeks. Despite the less-than-spectacular price movements, this meme coin still recorded a 16% increase. Although the uptrend is slowing, PIPPIN's performance still outperforms many altcoins in the same segment.
Technical signals still indicate a positive outlook. The Parabolic SAR indicator continues to confirm the uptrend, reinforcing the bullish structure. If the momentum is maintained, PIPPIN could surpass the $0.434 mark, opening up opportunities to conquer key resistance zones at $0.500 and $0.600.
On the other hand, downside risk will emerge if investors tend to take profits. Increased selling pressure could push PIPPIN below the $0.366 support zone. If this trend is confirmed, technical strength will weaken, erasing recent gains and invalidating the bullish outlook.
ترجمة
Ethereum to lead DeFi capital flows in 2025 as liquidity returns to layer 1.
Ethereum is emerging as the leading destination for net capital inflows in 2025, solidifying its central role in high-value DeFi liquidity. While DeFi activity is expanding aggressively across multiple Layer-2 networks, the majority of liquidity ultimately returns to Ethereum's Layer-1. Throughout 2025, Ethereum recorded over $4.2 billion in net capital inflows, demonstrating its long-term dominance despite periods of short-term capital shifts to other chains.
Arbitrum is the network recording the largest outflow of capital, as liquidity leaves high-risk DeFi environments and returns to Ethereum. Meanwhile, Ethereum continues to attract new capital, including $195 million in the most recent week alone. Hyperliquid ranks second in net inflows with approximately $2 billion this year.
Ethereum's advantages stem from its deep liquidity, extensive bridging system, and superior stablecoin ecosystem. The sharp drop in gas fees also improves usability, solidifying Ethereum as the core liquidity and payment layer of the entire ecosystem.
Ethereum is emerging as the leading destination for net capital inflows in 2025, solidifying its central role in high-value DeFi liquidity. While DeFi activity is expanding aggressively across multiple Layer-2 networks, the majority of liquidity ultimately returns to Ethereum's Layer-1. Throughout 2025, Ethereum recorded over $4.2 billion in net capital inflows, demonstrating its long-term dominance despite periods of short-term capital shifts to other chains.
Arbitrum is the network recording the largest outflow of capital, as liquidity leaves high-risk DeFi environments and returns to Ethereum. Meanwhile, Ethereum continues to attract new capital, including $195 million in the most recent week alone. Hyperliquid ranks second in net inflows with approximately $2 billion this year.
Ethereum's advantages stem from its deep liquidity, extensive bridging system, and superior stablecoin ecosystem. The sharp drop in gas fees also improves usability, solidifying Ethereum as the core liquidity and payment layer of the entire ecosystem.
ترجمة
70% of Polymarket traders lose money, with profits accumulating in less than 0.04% of accounts.
On-chain data from DeFi Oasis paints a harsh picture on Polymarket: out of more than 1.7 million addresses that have ever traded, approximately 70% of traders lost money, while only 30% made a profit. Notably, less than 0.04% of addresses accounted for over 70% of the platform's total profits, equivalent to approximately $3.7 billion.
The majority of users only earn very small profits. Traders earning less than $1,000 account for over 24.5% of all addresses but receive less than 1% of the total profit. To earn over $1,000, traders must be in the top 4.9% of the most effective trading addresses, clearly reflecting a "winner-takes-most" structure.
Prediction markets, with their Polymarkets, boomed during the 2024 US election period, as markets predicting political and economic events attracted large sums of money. Profits primarily went to large wallets, quantitative traders, and those with well-structured strategies, while the majority of small retail traders lost money due to chasing news and herd mentality. This trend further reinforces a familiar reality of the crypto market: profits are concentrated in the hands of "smart money."
On-chain data from DeFi Oasis paints a harsh picture on Polymarket: out of more than 1.7 million addresses that have ever traded, approximately 70% of traders lost money, while only 30% made a profit. Notably, less than 0.04% of addresses accounted for over 70% of the platform's total profits, equivalent to approximately $3.7 billion.
The majority of users only earn very small profits. Traders earning less than $1,000 account for over 24.5% of all addresses but receive less than 1% of the total profit. To earn over $1,000, traders must be in the top 4.9% of the most effective trading addresses, clearly reflecting a "winner-takes-most" structure.
Prediction markets, with their Polymarkets, boomed during the 2024 US election period, as markets predicting political and economic events attracted large sums of money. Profits primarily went to large wallets, quantitative traders, and those with well-structured strategies, while the majority of small retail traders lost money due to chasing news and herd mentality. This trend further reinforces a familiar reality of the crypto market: profits are concentrated in the hands of "smart money."
ترجمة
BitMine is increasing its $ETH purchases and expanding staking; is the price poised for a breakout?
BitMine Immersion continues to expand its Ethereum accumulation strategy despite the typical market slowdown during the holiday season. Over the past week, BitMine purchased an additional 44,463 ETH, bringing its total holdings to approximately 4.11 million ETH, equivalent to 3.41% of Ethereum's circulating supply. While the purchase volume is down more than 50% from the previous week, this move still reflects the company's consistent long-term vision.
According to Chairman Tom Lee, the end of the year typically sees weakened liquidity due to tax-optimized sales, especially between December 26th and 30th. BitMine stated that they had anticipated this factor in their operational strategy.
In parallel with accumulation, BitMine has begun staking 408,627 ETH through three partners and plans to expand staking in early 2026 with the MAVAN network. Upon reaching maximum scale, the company estimates staking revenue could reach $374 million per year.
In the market, ETH is still trading below the 20-day EMA, indicating that the short-term trend is not yet clear.
BitMine Immersion continues to expand its Ethereum accumulation strategy despite the typical market slowdown during the holiday season. Over the past week, BitMine purchased an additional 44,463 ETH, bringing its total holdings to approximately 4.11 million ETH, equivalent to 3.41% of Ethereum's circulating supply. While the purchase volume is down more than 50% from the previous week, this move still reflects the company's consistent long-term vision.
According to Chairman Tom Lee, the end of the year typically sees weakened liquidity due to tax-optimized sales, especially between December 26th and 30th. BitMine stated that they had anticipated this factor in their operational strategy.
In parallel with accumulation, BitMine has begun staking 408,627 ETH through three partners and plans to expand staking in early 2026 with the MAVAN network. Upon reaching maximum scale, the company estimates staking revenue could reach $374 million per year.
In the market, ETH is still trading below the 20-day EMA, indicating that the short-term trend is not yet clear.
ترجمة
Bloomberg: $ETH faces a greater risk of falling to $2,000 than rising to $4,000.
ETH is under increasing downward pressure amid persistent poor performance, a deteriorating macroeconomic environment, and unfavorable asset class comparisons. According to Bloomberg Intelligence, the market is now more likely to test lower price levels rather than return to previously established highs.
Mike McGlone, senior commodity strategist at Bloomberg Intelligence, recently expressed a pessimistic view on Ether on the X platform. He believes that a scenario of ETH falling to the $2,000 region is significantly more likely than a recovery to $4,000, as the prolonged weakness continues amidst the heavy macroeconomic risks weighing on the crypto market.
ETH is under increasing downward pressure amid persistent poor performance, a deteriorating macroeconomic environment, and unfavorable asset class comparisons. According to Bloomberg Intelligence, the market is now more likely to test lower price levels rather than return to previously established highs.
Mike McGlone, senior commodity strategist at Bloomberg Intelligence, recently expressed a pessimistic view on Ether on the X platform. He believes that a scenario of ETH falling to the $2,000 region is significantly more likely than a recovery to $4,000, as the prolonged weakness continues amidst the heavy macroeconomic risks weighing on the crypto market.
ترجمة
$SHIB shows signs of recovery as token volume on exchanges drops sharply.
Shiba Inu (SHIB) continues to weaken sharply from its previous peak, with its price falling nearly 70% in a year and its market capitalization dropping below $4.5 billion, placing it out of the top 30. However, some on-chain signals are raising expectations of a short-term recovery.
According to data from CryptoQuant, the amount of SHIB held on centralized exchanges fell to approximately 81.2 trillion tokens on December 28th, the lowest level since April 2021. This development is generally seen as a positive sign, as immediate selling pressure decreases due to shrinking supply on exchanges.
Some analysts suggest that SHIB may have bottomed out, as retail investors continue to sell off their holdings, while "smart" money begins to accumulate for the medium term. However, the outlook remains risky as the token burning mechanism has not yet had a significant impact, the circulating supply remains very large, and activity on Shibarium has not recovered from the security incident in September.
Shiba Inu (SHIB) continues to weaken sharply from its previous peak, with its price falling nearly 70% in a year and its market capitalization dropping below $4.5 billion, placing it out of the top 30. However, some on-chain signals are raising expectations of a short-term recovery.
According to data from CryptoQuant, the amount of SHIB held on centralized exchanges fell to approximately 81.2 trillion tokens on December 28th, the lowest level since April 2021. This development is generally seen as a positive sign, as immediate selling pressure decreases due to shrinking supply on exchanges.
Some analysts suggest that SHIB may have bottomed out, as retail investors continue to sell off their holdings, while "smart" money begins to accumulate for the medium term. However, the outlook remains risky as the token burning mechanism has not yet had a significant impact, the circulating supply remains very large, and activity on Shibarium has not recovered from the security incident in September.
ترجمة
$XRP Analysis : XRP Recovers Within Falling Wedge Pattern, Aiming for a Breakout Above $2
Ripple (XRP) is up more than 2% at the time of writing in Monday's trading session, bringing the price close to the resistance line of the falling wedge pattern on the logarithmic daily chart, around $1.94. If XRP breaks decisively through this trend line, the upward momentum could be strengthened, paving the way for the price to head towards the 50-day EMA at $2.06.
In terms of momentum, the RSI is fluctuating around 45 and trending towards the midline, indicating a clear weakening of selling pressure. Simultaneously, the MACD continues its upward trend after crossing above the signal line on Saturday, reflecting a return of bullish momentum to the market.
Conversely, in a negative scenario, if XRP reverses and breaks through the $1.90 support level, the price could face further downward pressure, retracing to test the S1 Pivot Point at $1.79.
Ripple (XRP) is up more than 2% at the time of writing in Monday's trading session, bringing the price close to the resistance line of the falling wedge pattern on the logarithmic daily chart, around $1.94. If XRP breaks decisively through this trend line, the upward momentum could be strengthened, paving the way for the price to head towards the 50-day EMA at $2.06.
In terms of momentum, the RSI is fluctuating around 45 and trending towards the midline, indicating a clear weakening of selling pressure. Simultaneously, the MACD continues its upward trend after crossing above the signal line on Saturday, reflecting a return of bullish momentum to the market.
Conversely, in a negative scenario, if XRP reverses and breaks through the $1.90 support level, the price could face further downward pressure, retracing to test the S1 Pivot Point at $1.79.
ترجمة
$ETH Analysis : Ethereum surpasses $3,000, heading towards the 50-day EMA
Ethereum is currently trading firmly above the $3,000 mark, recording its fourth consecutive day of gains and showing increasingly clear signs of recovery. At the time of writing, ETH is up more than 3%, approaching the 50-day exponential moving average (EMA) around $3,136 – a key technical level in the short term.
If it successfully breaks above this EMA, Ethereum's upward momentum is likely to extend, with the next target being the 200-day EMA at $3,374, representing an increase of approximately 11% from the current price.
Similar to Bitcoin, momentum indicators on the daily timeframe show that Ethereum's strength is clearly improving. The RSI has risen to 51 and crossed the median line, reflecting increasing buying pressure. There is still room for further upside, suggesting ETH still has room to move higher before entering the overbought zone.
Simultaneously, the MACD has separated from the signal line and avoided a bearish crossover, reinforcing the view that Ethereum's upward momentum is still being maintained.
In a correction scenario, this large-cap altcoin could return to test the short-term support line, formed by connecting the lows of November 21st and December 18th, around the $2,850 area.
Ethereum is currently trading firmly above the $3,000 mark, recording its fourth consecutive day of gains and showing increasingly clear signs of recovery. At the time of writing, ETH is up more than 3%, approaching the 50-day exponential moving average (EMA) around $3,136 – a key technical level in the short term.
If it successfully breaks above this EMA, Ethereum's upward momentum is likely to extend, with the next target being the 200-day EMA at $3,374, representing an increase of approximately 11% from the current price.
Similar to Bitcoin, momentum indicators on the daily timeframe show that Ethereum's strength is clearly improving. The RSI has risen to 51 and crossed the median line, reflecting increasing buying pressure. There is still room for further upside, suggesting ETH still has room to move higher before entering the overbought zone.
Simultaneously, the MACD has separated from the signal line and avoided a bearish crossover, reinforcing the view that Ethereum's upward momentum is still being maintained.
In a correction scenario, this large-cap altcoin could return to test the short-term support line, formed by connecting the lows of November 21st and December 18th, around the $2,850 area.
ترجمة
$BTC Analysis : Bitcoin regains strength as US pushes for Russia-Ukraine ceasefire.
Bitcoin entered the new trading week on a positive note, supported by a de-escalating geopolitical landscape as US President Donald Trump stepped up efforts to broker a ceasefire between Ukraine and Russia. In recent exchanges with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky regarding peace prospects, Trump indicated that negotiations had made “a lot of progress.” However, key issues related to territorial demarcation remain unresolved and are likely to require more time to address.
As of Monday afternoon, Bitcoin was up more than 2%, surpassing the psychological $90,000 mark. This recovery opens the possibility of a bullish Marubozu candlestick, reflecting overwhelming buying pressure and the immediate target for bulls being the 50-day exponential moving average (EMA) at $92,202.
Technically, BTC is currently still fluctuating within a symmetrical triangle pattern on the daily chart, formed by two converging trend lines. The upper resistance line, located near the 50-day EMA, connecting the peaks formed on November 15th and December 9th, acts as a significant short-term barrier.
If Bitcoin can definitively close above $92,202, the breakout from the triangle pattern will be confirmed. At that point, the November 15th high of $96,846 and further down the 200-day EMA around $101,029 could become the next notable resistance levels.
Momentum indicators are also leaning towards the positive. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is currently at 53 and continues to rise after crossing the neutral threshold, indicating that demand is gradually gaining the upper hand. Simultaneously, the MACD is approaching zero, reflecting a strengthening upward momentum.
Conversely, if BTC loses the support line around $86,250, the triangle pattern will be broken in a bearish direction. In that case, the key lows established on November 21st and December 18th, at $84,450 and $80,600 respectively, will likely become crucial support zones to watch.
Bitcoin entered the new trading week on a positive note, supported by a de-escalating geopolitical landscape as US President Donald Trump stepped up efforts to broker a ceasefire between Ukraine and Russia. In recent exchanges with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky regarding peace prospects, Trump indicated that negotiations had made “a lot of progress.” However, key issues related to territorial demarcation remain unresolved and are likely to require more time to address.
As of Monday afternoon, Bitcoin was up more than 2%, surpassing the psychological $90,000 mark. This recovery opens the possibility of a bullish Marubozu candlestick, reflecting overwhelming buying pressure and the immediate target for bulls being the 50-day exponential moving average (EMA) at $92,202.
Technically, BTC is currently still fluctuating within a symmetrical triangle pattern on the daily chart, formed by two converging trend lines. The upper resistance line, located near the 50-day EMA, connecting the peaks formed on November 15th and December 9th, acts as a significant short-term barrier.
If Bitcoin can definitively close above $92,202, the breakout from the triangle pattern will be confirmed. At that point, the November 15th high of $96,846 and further down the 200-day EMA around $101,029 could become the next notable resistance levels.
Momentum indicators are also leaning towards the positive. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is currently at 53 and continues to rise after crossing the neutral threshold, indicating that demand is gradually gaining the upper hand. Simultaneously, the MACD is approaching zero, reflecting a strengthening upward momentum.
Conversely, if BTC loses the support line around $86,250, the triangle pattern will be broken in a bearish direction. In that case, the key lows established on November 21st and December 18th, at $84,450 and $80,600 respectively, will likely become crucial support zones to watch.
ترجمة
Coi.n.bas.e has identified three sectors that will dominate the crypto market in 2026.
This report was written by David Duong, Head of Global Research, and Colin Basco, Research Fellow at Coi.nb.ase.
1. Perp DEX: The New Central Liquidity Layer
Perp DEX is gradually becoming the core infrastructure layer of the on-chain market, as the demand for leveraged trading and risk hedging continues to increase. Unlike previous cycles, the growth of perp DEX is no longer entirely dependent on retail investors but is driven by professional traders, market makers, and automated trading strategies. Optimizing liquidation mechanisms, funding rates, and capital efficiency helps perp DEX gradually approach the experience of centralized exchanges while maintaining on-chain transparency.
2. Prediction Market: From Experimentation to Informational Tool
The prediction market is moving away from its niche role as a betting product to become a tool for information discovery and expectation valuation. Improved liquidity and participation from more sophisticated users are leading to the increasing use of prediction markets for macroeconomic scenarios, policies, and financial events, rather than solely focusing on purely crypto topics.
3. Stablecoins: The Foundation of Real-World Operations
Stablecoins continue to be the most sustainable growth pillar of crypto, driven primarily by payments, remittances, and liquidity management. The role of stablecoins is increasingly intertwined with DEX perps and prediction markets, forming a common infrastructure for large-scale on-chain financial operations.
This report was written by David Duong, Head of Global Research, and Colin Basco, Research Fellow at Coi.nb.ase.
1. Perp DEX: The New Central Liquidity Layer
Perp DEX is gradually becoming the core infrastructure layer of the on-chain market, as the demand for leveraged trading and risk hedging continues to increase. Unlike previous cycles, the growth of perp DEX is no longer entirely dependent on retail investors but is driven by professional traders, market makers, and automated trading strategies. Optimizing liquidation mechanisms, funding rates, and capital efficiency helps perp DEX gradually approach the experience of centralized exchanges while maintaining on-chain transparency.
2. Prediction Market: From Experimentation to Informational Tool
The prediction market is moving away from its niche role as a betting product to become a tool for information discovery and expectation valuation. Improved liquidity and participation from more sophisticated users are leading to the increasing use of prediction markets for macroeconomic scenarios, policies, and financial events, rather than solely focusing on purely crypto topics.
3. Stablecoins: The Foundation of Real-World Operations
Stablecoins continue to be the most sustainable growth pillar of crypto, driven primarily by payments, remittances, and liquidity management. The role of stablecoins is increasingly intertwined with DEX perps and prediction markets, forming a common infrastructure for large-scale on-chain financial operations.
ترجمة
The privacy project has been forgotten : Monero – Why XMR buyers should wait for this potential oppo
Monero [XMR] could offer late bulls a buying opportunity if its Q4 2025 trend repeats itself. Like the rest of the altcoin market, the Santa rally lifted it by 7% from $432 to over $460. This followed a slight easing in Bitcoin dominance that offered a relief rally for altcoins.
However, XMR’s bounce also came with thin liquidity and low trading volumes, and could be quickly reversed if the conditions persist into the new year.
Still, such a scenario could be a juicy entry point for near-term bulls.
Will XMR drop to $400-$420 support?
The $400-$420 area (white) was a May price peak and a resistance zone in H2 2025 that was only cleared in mid-December.
As such, defending the level as support could set XMR for the next leg of its rally. Additionally, the price zone converged with the 50-day Moving Average (MA).
Throughout Q4, the price bounced off the 50-day MA (white line). So, if the trend repeats itself and the price tag hits the level again, this could be a new buying opportunity.
Source: XMR/USDT, TradingView
That being said, the MACD was on the verge of a Death Cross at press time. This could drag XMR lower, likely to the Moving Average. In fact, the previous Death Cross signals in October, November, and December all eased at the Moving Average.
This further supported the aforementioned thesis and calls for patience for late bulls. The immediate target would be $470, alluding to potential gains of 15% from the support level.
However, a sustained drop below the 50-day Moving Average would invalidate the thesis.
No overheated market yet…
A broader weak market sentiment could send XMR lower in early 2026. However, such a risk was not evident on the Futures market at the time of writing.
In fact, there haven’t been many retail investors jumping on the asset with leverage – A lack of euphoria that underlined a healthy market for XMR.
Source: CryptoQuant
In the past, ‘too many retail’ signals were followed by a retracement.
Still, XMR’s market sentiment has not been fully into the positive territory for another upswing. In fact, the sentiment has been predominantly negative during the Christmas week. If it resets to positive, it could further bolster recovery odds.
Source: Santiment
$XMR
However, XMR’s bounce also came with thin liquidity and low trading volumes, and could be quickly reversed if the conditions persist into the new year.
Still, such a scenario could be a juicy entry point for near-term bulls.
Will XMR drop to $400-$420 support?
The $400-$420 area (white) was a May price peak and a resistance zone in H2 2025 that was only cleared in mid-December.
As such, defending the level as support could set XMR for the next leg of its rally. Additionally, the price zone converged with the 50-day Moving Average (MA).
Throughout Q4, the price bounced off the 50-day MA (white line). So, if the trend repeats itself and the price tag hits the level again, this could be a new buying opportunity.
Source: XMR/USDT, TradingView
That being said, the MACD was on the verge of a Death Cross at press time. This could drag XMR lower, likely to the Moving Average. In fact, the previous Death Cross signals in October, November, and December all eased at the Moving Average.
This further supported the aforementioned thesis and calls for patience for late bulls. The immediate target would be $470, alluding to potential gains of 15% from the support level.
However, a sustained drop below the 50-day Moving Average would invalidate the thesis.
No overheated market yet…
A broader weak market sentiment could send XMR lower in early 2026. However, such a risk was not evident on the Futures market at the time of writing.
In fact, there haven’t been many retail investors jumping on the asset with leverage – A lack of euphoria that underlined a healthy market for XMR.
Source: CryptoQuant
In the past, ‘too many retail’ signals were followed by a retracement.
Still, XMR’s market sentiment has not been fully into the positive territory for another upswing. In fact, the sentiment has been predominantly negative during the Christmas week. If it resets to positive, it could further bolster recovery odds.
Source: Santiment
$XMR
ترجمة
Crypto ETF inflows week of December 22-26: Bitcoin and Ethereum see significant outflows, SOL and XRP attract capital.
Between December 22nd and 26th, inflows into cryptocurrency spot ETFs showed mixed performance across major assets. Bitcoin spot ETFs saw net outflows of $782 million, with all 12 funds experiencing withdrawals, reflecting cautious investor sentiment ahead of year-end market volatility.
Similarly, Ethereum spot ETFs recorded net outflows of $102 million, indicating continued selling pressure on ETH in the short term.
Conversely, some altcoins attracted positive capital inflows. The SOL spot ETF recorded net inflows of $13.14 million, with all eight funds reporting inflows, demonstrating investor confidence in the Solana ecosystem. Notably, the XRP spot ETF led the growth group with $64 million in net inflows this week, reflecting more positive expectations for XRP compared to BTC and ETH during the same period.
Between December 22nd and 26th, inflows into cryptocurrency spot ETFs showed mixed performance across major assets. Bitcoin spot ETFs saw net outflows of $782 million, with all 12 funds experiencing withdrawals, reflecting cautious investor sentiment ahead of year-end market volatility.
Similarly, Ethereum spot ETFs recorded net outflows of $102 million, indicating continued selling pressure on ETH in the short term.
Conversely, some altcoins attracted positive capital inflows. The SOL spot ETF recorded net inflows of $13.14 million, with all eight funds reporting inflows, demonstrating investor confidence in the Solana ecosystem. Notably, the XRP spot ETF led the growth group with $64 million in net inflows this week, reflecting more positive expectations for XRP compared to BTC and ETH during the same period.
ترجمة
$TON Analysis : Toncoin Continues Uptrend Targeting 50-Day EMA
Toncoin continues its eight-day winning streak, approaching the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) around $1.69. At the time of writing, TON is up 1% on Monday, with buying pressure targeting a breakout above the 50-day EMA and towards the R1 Pivot Point at $1.79 on the daily chart.
The RSI (at 59) remains above the neutral line, reflecting strong buying pressure. Simultaneously, the MACD and signal lines are approaching zero, indicating a solid uptrend.
In the event that TON experiences a correction from the $1.69 level, the coin is likely to retest the $1,444 support level – a level that has held since November 21st.
Toncoin continues its eight-day winning streak, approaching the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) around $1.69. At the time of writing, TON is up 1% on Monday, with buying pressure targeting a breakout above the 50-day EMA and towards the R1 Pivot Point at $1.79 on the daily chart.
The RSI (at 59) remains above the neutral line, reflecting strong buying pressure. Simultaneously, the MACD and signal lines are approaching zero, indicating a solid uptrend.
In the event that TON experiences a correction from the $1.69 level, the coin is likely to retest the $1,444 support level – a level that has held since November 21st.
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$LDO Analysis : Lido DAO Breaks Out of Falling Wedge Pattern
As of Monday, Lido DAO (LDO) is up more than 1%, marking an impressive six-day winning streak. The coin successfully broke out of a falling wedge pattern on Sunday and is heading towards the 50-day EMA at $0.6431.
If LDO breaks above this level, the next target could be the R1 Pivot Point at $0.7194, opening up the possibility of a continuation of the uptrend. The RSI is currently at 52, having crossed above the neutral line, indicating that buying pressure is being reactivated, while the MACD and signal lines maintain their upward momentum towards 0.
Conversely, if LDO falls below Sunday's low of $0.5743, the wedge breakout momentum could be invalidated, potentially leading to a correction to the S1 Pivot Point at $0.5118.
As of Monday, Lido DAO (LDO) is up more than 1%, marking an impressive six-day winning streak. The coin successfully broke out of a falling wedge pattern on Sunday and is heading towards the 50-day EMA at $0.6431.
If LDO breaks above this level, the next target could be the R1 Pivot Point at $0.7194, opening up the possibility of a continuation of the uptrend. The RSI is currently at 52, having crossed above the neutral line, indicating that buying pressure is being reactivated, while the MACD and signal lines maintain their upward momentum towards 0.
Conversely, if LDO falls below Sunday's low of $0.5743, the wedge breakout momentum could be invalidated, potentially leading to a correction to the S1 Pivot Point at $0.5118.
ترجمة
2026 is expected to be a pivotal year for risky assets like crypto.
Gold, silver, metals, and stocks are constantly breaking records, but only risky assets like Bitcoin haven't yet? However, renowned analysts from Kobeissi Letter believe that 2026 will be even more positive. The question is: will capital flow into crypto in the near future?
According to the Kobeissi Letter, 2026 is being viewed by many major organizations as a potentially explosive period for the global financial markets. The impetus comes from multiple factors, including the continuing acceleration of the AI wave, US-China technology competition, the trend of deregulation, the US midterm elections, and especially the direction of the Fed's monetary policy.
After three interest rate cuts in 2025, the Fed is expected to continue easing next year, creating a more favorable environment for riskier assets. In this context, crypto is likely to rebound as capital flows in search of higher yields. Bitcoin, with its increasingly legitimate status in the eyes of institutions, could benefit if a true liquidity cycle forms.
Gold, silver, metals, and stocks are constantly breaking records, but only risky assets like Bitcoin haven't yet? However, renowned analysts from Kobeissi Letter believe that 2026 will be even more positive. The question is: will capital flow into crypto in the near future?
According to the Kobeissi Letter, 2026 is being viewed by many major organizations as a potentially explosive period for the global financial markets. The impetus comes from multiple factors, including the continuing acceleration of the AI wave, US-China technology competition, the trend of deregulation, the US midterm elections, and especially the direction of the Fed's monetary policy.
After three interest rate cuts in 2025, the Fed is expected to continue easing next year, creating a more favorable environment for riskier assets. In this context, crypto is likely to rebound as capital flows in search of higher yields. Bitcoin, with its increasingly legitimate status in the eyes of institutions, could benefit if a true liquidity cycle forms.
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Hyperliquid schedules the distribution of 1.2 million HYPE units to its team, fixed on the 6th of each month.
Hyperliquid co-founder Iliensinc announced on Discord that 1.2 million HYPE tokens belonging to Hyperliquid Labs will be withdrawn from staking and distributed to team members on January 6th. Iliensinc stated that, in the future, if there are further token distributions, the schedule will be fixed on the 6th of each month to increase transparency and predictability for the community.
This move comes as Hyperliquid is being hailed as one of the most successful projects of 2025. The platform has distinguished itself with its high-performance on-chain derivatives trading model, user experience close to centralized exchanges, and ability to attract significant liquidity without relying on external ecosystems.
Hyperliquid co-founder Iliensinc announced on Discord that 1.2 million HYPE tokens belonging to Hyperliquid Labs will be withdrawn from staking and distributed to team members on January 6th. Iliensinc stated that, in the future, if there are further token distributions, the schedule will be fixed on the 6th of each month to increase transparency and predictability for the community.
This move comes as Hyperliquid is being hailed as one of the most successful projects of 2025. The platform has distinguished itself with its high-performance on-chain derivatives trading model, user experience close to centralized exchanges, and ability to attract significant liquidity without relying on external ecosystems.
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Crypto Forecast 2026: 12 Trends That Could Shape the Next Cycle
Pantera Capital, through researcher Jay Yu, has released 12 crypto predictions for 2026, ranging from efficient capital credit, agent commerce with x402, AI trading, to the risk of "quantum panic" with Bitcoin.
1. Capital-efficient consumer credit becomes the new battleground
Crypto lending is shifting to a capital-efficient credit model, combining on-chain and off-chain data and AI to optimize collateral, while maintaining a simple fintech experience.
2. The prediction market splits into two branches
The prediction market is clearly differentiated: one financial branch linked to DeFi and derivatives, the other focused on culture, community, and long-term preferences.
3. Agentic commerce explodes with x402
AI-powered automated trading agents are propelling x402 to become a mainstream payment layer for web and AI, with Solana leading in retail volume.
4. AI Becomes the Interface Layer of Crypto
AI acts as an “interface layer,” supporting analysis, wallet monitoring, and decision-making for general users.
5. Tokenized Gold Rises to Lead RWA
Macroeconomic instability and limitations on physical gold have made tokenized gold the leading RWA asset.
6. A Quantum Scare for Bitcoin
Quantum advancements may cause short-term panic, but the actual risk to BTC remains low.
7. Unified Programming Experience for Privacy
Privacy is packaged into frameworks and services, targeting businesses.
8. DATs Enter a Wave of Consolidation
Each ecosystem is reduced to just a few key DATs through M&A or restructuring.
9. The line between tokens and shares is gradually collapsing.
Pure token governance is weakening, giving way to a model that links ownership to real rights.
10. Hyperliquid maintains dominance in Perp DEX
Hyperliquid leads in liquidity, with profitable stablecoins becoming the core of the ecosystem.
11. Prop AMM expands across multiple chains
Prop AMMs are spreading, especially on Solana and RWA.
12. Stablecoins become the cross-border payment method
Pantera Capital, through researcher Jay Yu, has released 12 crypto predictions for 2026, ranging from efficient capital credit, agent commerce with x402, AI trading, to the risk of "quantum panic" with Bitcoin.
1. Capital-efficient consumer credit becomes the new battleground
Crypto lending is shifting to a capital-efficient credit model, combining on-chain and off-chain data and AI to optimize collateral, while maintaining a simple fintech experience.
2. The prediction market splits into two branches
The prediction market is clearly differentiated: one financial branch linked to DeFi and derivatives, the other focused on culture, community, and long-term preferences.
3. Agentic commerce explodes with x402
AI-powered automated trading agents are propelling x402 to become a mainstream payment layer for web and AI, with Solana leading in retail volume.
4. AI Becomes the Interface Layer of Crypto
AI acts as an “interface layer,” supporting analysis, wallet monitoring, and decision-making for general users.
5. Tokenized Gold Rises to Lead RWA
Macroeconomic instability and limitations on physical gold have made tokenized gold the leading RWA asset.
6. A Quantum Scare for Bitcoin
Quantum advancements may cause short-term panic, but the actual risk to BTC remains low.
7. Unified Programming Experience for Privacy
Privacy is packaged into frameworks and services, targeting businesses.
8. DATs Enter a Wave of Consolidation
Each ecosystem is reduced to just a few key DATs through M&A or restructuring.
9. The line between tokens and shares is gradually collapsing.
Pure token governance is weakening, giving way to a model that links ownership to real rights.
10. Hyperliquid maintains dominance in Perp DEX
Hyperliquid leads in liquidity, with profitable stablecoins becoming the core of the ecosystem.
11. Prop AMM expands across multiple chains
Prop AMMs are spreading, especially on Solana and RWA.
12. Stablecoins become the cross-border payment method
ترجمة
Flow faces backlash over rollback plan following $3.9 million hack.
Blockchain Flow was expected to restart the network after validators agreed to revert transaction history to a checkpoint prior to the approximately $3.9 million hack that occurred Friday night. However, the decision to reverse the ledger without prior coordination with key ecosystem partners quickly met with backlash, particularly from cross-chain bridge operators.
Alex Smirnov, co-founder of deBridge – one of the major bridge providers supporting Flow – stated that his team received no prior notification or communication before Flow decided to rollback. On social media platform X, Smirnov asserted that Flow's claim of "mandatory synchronization with ecosystem partners" was inaccurate, and that this lack of coordination posed a serious risk to the entire network.
In subsequent discussions, Smirnov stated that Flow only contacted deBridge after his public criticism, but at that point was still leaning towards a rollback. DeBridge's primary goal in the discussions was to clarify what a rollback could solve, while the attacker had already moved assets out of Flow.
Blockchain Flow was expected to restart the network after validators agreed to revert transaction history to a checkpoint prior to the approximately $3.9 million hack that occurred Friday night. However, the decision to reverse the ledger without prior coordination with key ecosystem partners quickly met with backlash, particularly from cross-chain bridge operators.
Alex Smirnov, co-founder of deBridge – one of the major bridge providers supporting Flow – stated that his team received no prior notification or communication before Flow decided to rollback. On social media platform X, Smirnov asserted that Flow's claim of "mandatory synchronization with ecosystem partners" was inaccurate, and that this lack of coordination posed a serious risk to the entire network.
In subsequent discussions, Smirnov stated that Flow only contacted deBridge after his public criticism, but at that point was still leaning towards a rollback. DeBridge's primary goal in the discussions was to clarify what a rollback could solve, while the attacker had already moved assets out of Flow.
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