Halving cycles are real but market structure has changed. ETFs, macro liquidity and institutional flows distort pure 4-year models. If we revisit 30–40K, it won’t be because of “cycle math” it will be because of liquidity conditions. Question is: what macro trigger gets us there?
News Hunter BNB
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This Is the Bitcoin Situation for the Next 3 Years
This is the Bitcoin Situation for the Next 3 Years
Since last August I warned that the $108,000 level could not be lost in Bitcoin or else we entered a bearish cycle and it was going to be hard.
I am not a guru nor do I have a crystal ball.
But I try to get informed and I dedicate a lot of time to understanding what a Halving is. I understand mining costs. I understand staking. I understand leverage.
But above all we need to understand how all this leads us to CYCLES.
This chart is very powerful for understanding Bitcoin.
Each line is a cycle since its Halving. This event happens every 4 years.
The first cycle (the blue one) made the high somewhat earlier but the following cycles have made their highs at the same moment. All the lows have happened one year after reaching this high.
This last cycle (the strong yellow one) looks smaller and this is not a coincidence. Notice that each cycle is smaller than the previous one.
And this makes sense.
Bitcoin cycles are INFLATIONARY AND LOGARITHMIC.
Inflationary and logarithmic?
This is vital. Let me translate it for you.
Bitcoin should follow inflation because it is a finite asset like gold or real estate in certain areas.
Easy but logarithmic?
This is something you can't IGNORE anymore.
🤔 Bitcoin cycles go up less every time.
One reason is that the more an asset capitalizes the more it costs to keep it going up. Money in the world is finite and therefore when something capitalizes billions it starts to be complicated to make it grow in a faster rate than inflation.
But you must also know that in the Halvings the rewards to miners are reduced.
At the beginning this meant a beastly reduction of many BTCs which drove the price very high. But now the reward is barely reduced by 3 or 1 BTC so the price cannot rise at the same pace.
If we pay attention to previous cycles Bitcoin will keep falling in 2026 until the end of the year before starting a recovery. This is the most likely scenario right now.
So much for Bitcoin theory so let us go to the practical part.
🚀 Where will this low happen?
I do not know and nobody knows but we have clues.
In each of the cycles we have seen the price retreat from highs.
And a lot.
The first cycle down 85% The second down 80% The third down 75%
And now?
Maybe 70%? It could be. It is just an approximation.
This last drop to $60,000 is already a great milestone as the price has corrected 50% but in previous cycles we see that the best is still to come. It can fall another 50% down to $30k or $40k to meet the levels close to 70% correction which would seem plausible based on previous behavior.
In terms of price it seems there is a gap to fill and in terms of time it is even better.
Correction time of first cycle is 12 months Correction time of second cycle is 12 months Correction time of third cycle is 12 months
If this fourth cycle lasts the same as the previous ones we will be talking about seeing the moment of maximum pain in October 2026.
That is the moment where we will all say that $BTC is going to 0.
Who knows.
But, if we start accumulating in the $60k zone and save some money for the $30-40k area, we could easily average a $50k position during 2026.
After three years we should be at the next cycle peak which following a logarithmic progression could be somewhat higher than these last $120k (current cycle peak).
Let us assume $150k. (Which is a number I get from the serie of previous rallies, but there is too much math for today)
We are talking about selling the investment for triple the price in 3 years. That is a return that is not bad at all.
The risk is total. I go without a Stop Loss. It is aspirational investment and in no case is it capital protection.
And while we wait for the price to reach the right zone to keep buying, you could also make a quick trade to catch the next 10% rally.
👇 WANT MORE?
🚀 Hit the rocket, read my profile and follow so we can find each other again. #BTC #bitcoin #TrendingTopic {future}(BTCUSDT)
🚨 BTC Crashes Below $90K… But the Real Story Is Something Else
Bitcoin didn’t just dip — it tested below $88K and is now struggling to reclaim $90,000. 📉
This isn’t just another pullback — it’s a market identity test.
Here’s what’s happening right now:
• BTC broke beneath a key psychological level below $90K and even flirted with $88K support earlier today. • Over $1.8 billion in liquidations hit leveraged positions recently, especially longs. • Safe haven assets like gold and silver are spiking while crypto weakens. • Big players aren’t fleeing — some are raising new capital for crypto funds.
So here’s the real question for traders and hodlers:
👇 What does this BTC move really mean? Pick one and explain why:
A) Temporary shake-out — bulls still in control B) Bearish continuation — deeper drop to $85K or lower C) Range trade — $88K–$92K sideways grind D) Whipsaw before a bigger breakout
Banks? Middlemen? Fees? Forget them. Welcome to Decentralized Finance (DeFi) — where you are your own bank.
DeFi is not just a buzzword — it’s a movement that gives anyone with a crypto wallet access to financial services: 💸 Lending & borrowing 🔄 Swapping & staking 🌾 Yield farming & liquidity pools 🏦 Stablecoins & decentralized banking
No IDs. No approvals. No borders. Just code and crypto.
🔍 Why It Matters
DeFi apps (DApps) run on smart contracts — self-executing code that replaces bankers and lawyers. Every transaction is transparent, unstoppable, and verified on the blockchain.
With DeFi, you can: ✅ Earn yield on your crypto ✅ Borrow instantly without credit checks ✅ Trade directly from your wallet ✅ Build wealth without banks controlling your money
Blockchain is the technology behind Bitcoin and many other innovations. But what exactly is it — and why is it so powerful?
🧾 1. A Digital Ledger for Everyone
Blockchain is like a shared online notebook 📒 that records transactions. Unlike banks, it isn’t stored in one place — it lives on thousands of computers around the world.
✅ No single owner ✅ Transparent for everyone ✅ Impossible to secretly change
🛡 2. How It Works
1️⃣ A transaction is created (e.g., Alice sends Bob crypto). 2️⃣ The network checks if it’s valid. 3️⃣ The transaction is added to a block. 4️⃣ Each block connects to the previous one 🔗. 5️⃣ Once confirmed, it can’t be changed.
🧱 Many blocks = the blockchain.
🔐 3. Why It’s Secure
Protected by cryptography 🧠 Stored on many computers, not one To hack it, you’d need to control most of the network — almost impossible.
🏛 4. Decentralization = Power to the People
No central bank. No middleman. Thousands of participants keep the network running together.
✨ More trust, more security, more freedom.
🌍 5. Real-World Use Cases
💰 Cryptocurrencies — fast, global transfers 🤖 Smart contracts — automatic agreements 🪙 Tokenization — real assets on chain 🪪 Digital IDs — secure identity
🗳 Voting — transparent and tamper-proof 🚚 Supply chain — full traceability
📈 Technical + Fundamental: What Really Matters Now?
In crypto, we often see posts with nothing but “lines” — uptrend, downtrend, support, resistance. But the real edge belongs to traders who combine technical, fundamental, and on-chain analysis.
🧭 Core Technical Tools You Should Master: 📊 RSI / Stochastic / Oscillators — momentum & overbought/oversold signals. 📈 MACD / EMA / Moving Averages — trend direction & impulse strength. 💹 Volume & OBV — confirms price moves with real trading activity. 🔺 Chart Patterns (triangles, flags, head & shoulders, etc.) — potential breakouts or reversals.
🧠 But that’s not enough — Fundamentals & On-Chain Metrics Matter: 🌐 Network activity: transactions, unique addresses — is the asset actually being used? 💧 Liquidity & token distribution: can you exit without slippage? 🧰 Team / dev activity / roadmap: is there real work behind the project?
🏆 BTC dominance & Fear & Greed Index: sentiment filters that shape the market mood.
⚠️ No indicator gives 100% certainty. Volatile markets love fake breakouts — where price pops above a level… and snaps right back.
💬 Your turn:
👉 Which indicator do you trust the most right now? 👉 Do you rely more on technicals or fundamentals? 👉 If you were to open a position today — what would guide your decision?
🚨 In the last 24 hours, the market got hit by a $500M+ liquidation wave — more than $438M in longs were wiped out as bulls were forced to capitulate.
📉 What happened?
A sharp macro shock triggered a brutal sell-off, causing a cascade of liquidations on leveraged positions. Classic “market cleanup” — weak hands got shaken out.
A clean break below $100K could trigger an even deeper liquidation wave. But if macro signals calm down, a sharp bounce may follow — volatility is at its peak.
💡 Pro tips: Lower leverage & set clear stop losses Monitor funding, OI & whale flows closely Don’t chase entries during peak volatility
🗣 Your turn: Did you get liquidated in this wave or dodge the bullet? Drop your thoughts below 👇
🚀 Rumour App & ALT: A New Era for Social Trading on Binance Square
Web3 is becoming more social than ever, and Rumour App is a clear example of this trend. It’s a platform that combines real-time news, trading insights, and community discussions, giving traders the edge to react before the market does.
🔹 Why does this matter?
Markets no longer move only on technicals – narratives and information flow shape price action.
Rumour App helps filter noise, verify credibility, and act faster.
With integration into Binance Square, users are not just reading the news — they are shaping the conversation.
🔹 ALT Token & the Ecosystem
Altlayer (ALT) powers decentralized applications and scalable Web3 solutions. Its role in platforms like Rumour App highlights the future of community-driven trading and tokenized rewards.
👉 Join the discussion, share your insights, and become part of the new information cycle in trading.
Success in trading doesn’t start with perfect entries or secret indicators — it begins with consistency. That’s why every trader needs to keep a trading journal. It’s your mirror of the market, showing what really works and what doesn’t.
🖊️ Must-have fields in your trading journal:
📅 Date – when the trade happened. 💰 Pair/Asset – what you traded. 🔄 Type of trade – long, short, spot, futures, bot, etc. 📊 Market trend – BTC/ETH context, overall direction. 😨 Fear & Greed Index – market psychology. 📰 News/Context – macro events that influenced your decision. 🎯 Plan: entry, TP, SL, key levels. 💵 P&L ($) – profit/loss. 📈 R-multiple – risk-to-reward ratio. 💡 Emotions, mistakes, lessons – the most valuable insights. ✅ Win/Loss – trade outcome. 🔥 Why it matters?
A trading journal brings discipline, removes chaos, and helps spot patterns in your own behavior. It’s the ultimate self-control tool — without it, long-term survival in the market is almost impossible.
The correct answer to today's puzzle is OPTIMIST ✅
In the world of crypto, being an optimist means believing in growth and innovation, even during market dips. 📉➡️📈 Optimists see opportunities where others see challenges, driving the space forward with bold ideas and long-term vision. 🚀
A crypto optimist focuses on: 🔹 Building during the bear market 🔹 Learning from every trade and mistake 🔹 Believing in the potential of blockchain and decentralization
Bitcoin itself was born from optimism — the belief that a better, freer financial system is possible. 🌍💡