CryptoQuant Quicktake

Recent data from CryptoQuant reveals a significant shift in Ethereum’s (ETH) net flow to Binance, with a substantial $960 million inflow recorded in December 2025 (as per the latest data point on the chart). This marks a remarkable turnaround, as Ethereum had been experiencing generally negative and decreasing net flows to the exchange since July of the same year.

This impressive figure not only indicates an abrupt change in investor behavior but also represents the highest monthly asset inflow for Ethereum to Binance since July 2025. Prior periods of negative net flows typically suggested that more ETH was being withdrawn from the exchange than deposited, often interpreted as long-term holding intentions off-exchange or potential selling pressure.

The implications of this considerable inflow are multi-faceted:

Revived Buyer Interest: This high volume of inflow could signal a strong resurgence in demand and renewed investor interest in accumulating Ethereum.

Preparation for Volatility: Traders might be moving their assets to the exchange to capitalize on upcoming trading opportunities or anticipated price fluctuations.

New Capital Injection: The trend could also indicate fresh capital entering the Ethereum ecosystem, subsequently being transferred to exchanges for active trading.

This sudden reversal from outflows to massive inflows serves as a crucial signal for the Ethereum market, potentially heralding a new phase of accumulation or heightened trading activity that investors and traders should monitor closely.

Written by CryptoOnchain

However, since the fall of 2025, Binance spot has been biased towards selling. After reaching 80,000, it became biased towards buying and was absorbed. However, it has again become biased towards selling. Although there are some places where funds are flowing in, it has reversed as it has since the fall of 2025. This is the true nature of the range.

Written by Crypto_Lion

As shown in another Quick Take, there is a mix of areas where capital flows well and areas where demand is declining.

Written by Crypto_Lion

Stablecoins depositing transactions from Binance and Coinbase are available.

Written by Crypto_Lion

Data from the binance_monthly_inflow_by_utxo_age metric highlights a sharp slowdown in short-term Bitcoin trader activity during December. BTC inflows to Binance from young UTXOs (less than 1 day old) dropped from approximately $24.7B in November to around $16.54B in December. This significant decline reflects a clear pullback by short-term traders and a reduced willingness to engage in rapid selling.

Young UTXOs represent recently moved coins and are a direct proxy for short-term, speculative behavior. Elevated inflows from this cohort typically align with immediate sell-side pressure and short-term market corrections. As a result, the contraction observed in December suggests a cooling of speculative activity and a notable reduction in instant selling pressure.

From a structural standpoint, this shift likely stems from fading price momentum toward year-end, a broader wait-and-see stance ahead of the new year, and a gradual handover of supply control to mid- and long-term holders. Such conditions are commonly associated with lower volatility and consolidation phases.

Overall, the decline in young UTXO inflows during December can be interpreted as a stabilizing signal for Bitcoin’s market structure, potentially setting the stage for more sustainable price dynamics in the months ahead.

Written by CryptoOnchain

Recent Bitcoin price action may look unstable, especially as daily ETF inflow and outflow headlines drive market sentiment. However, interpreting these flows as direct signals of institutional conviction is misleading.

In 2025, U.S. crypto ETFs recorded roughly $32 billion in net inflows, with Bitcoin ETFs accounting for about $21.4 billion. Notably, this cumulative inflow remained largely intact even through late-year price corrections. While short-term volatility increased, medium-term capital did not meaningfully exit the market.

ETF flows reflect the mechanics of a financial product rather than directional intent. Issuers such as BlackRock do not trade based on market views. Buying and selling are driven by investor positioning, portfolio rebalancing, and risk management, not by judgments on Bitcoin’s long-term value.

The key question, therefore, is whether ETF flow fluctuations translate into actual spot supply pressure. On-chain data suggests they have not.

Exchange Reserve data shows that despite price declines, total BTC held on exchanges has continued to trend lower. If ETF outflows represented a true contraction in demand, redeemed BTC would return to exchanges and reserves would rise. That pattern is absent.

At the same time, the Coinbase Premium Gap has moved into negative territory, indicating a pause in aggressive U.S. buying rather than broad-based selling. Importantly, this demand softening has not been accompanied by rising exchange balances.

Together, these signals point to a market that is consolidating rather than deteriorating. Short-term ETF flows may weigh on price, but underlying supply dynamics remain stable.

This view would change if exchange reserves begin to rise alongside persistent negative Coinbase Premium and sustained spot selling. Until then, consolidation with structural stability remains the most consistent interpretation.

The objective is not to predict price, but to accurately define the current market state.

Written by XWIN Research Japan

As Bitcoin continues to fluctuate within the $80,000–$95,000 range, both spot and futures trading volumes are steadily declining. At the same time, retail investor participation continues to decrease.

With price action compressed into a narrow range, Bitcoin has clearly settled into an equilibrium zone. Such consolidation phases typically signal that high-volatility assets like Bitcoin have entered a cooling phase. During this phase, volatility contracts, volumes fade, and retail demand gradually exits the market. Current data suggests that retail interest has temporarily withdrawn from the Bitcoin market.

In summary, volumes are declining, price is compressing, and retail participation continues to fall. As long as retail interest remains weak, Bitcoin is likely to continue building liquidity within this range. If selling pressure diminishes and buyers regain control, upside momentum may re-emerge.

In the coming weeks, choppy and volatile market conditions are expected to persist. However, if the current structure holds and sell-side pressure remains limited, a retest of the $95,000 level in the near term should not come as a surprise.

Written by BorisD

📰 Daily Market Update

data from Binance derivatives market shows a very aggressive shift in Ethereum positioning

📊 ETH: Binance Cumulative Net Taker Volume / Open Interest [24H]

The chart clearly shows a sharp and sudden expansion in Ethereum open interest on Binance, the largest crypto exchange globally by volume.

📈 ETH open interest surged from ~$6.2B to nearly $7.1B in less than 24 hours

📈 This is one of the strongest single-day increases seen recently

🚀 The expansion in open interest happened at the same time ETH price pushed above $3,100

This is important because rising open interest during price appreciation usually means new positions are entering the market, not just shorts covering.

📈 Even more interesting, CVD (Cumulative Volume Delta) also moved higher alongside open interest, which strongly suggests that:

* Most of the newly opened positions are long positions

* Buyers are using market orders aggressively, not passive limit bids

* In simple words, traders are not waiting… they are buying now.

📊 Liquidation Heatmap – ETH Derivatives

💣 A large short liquidation cluster was completely wiped out around the $3,100 level

💥 Once ETH reached this zone, over-leveraged short sellers were forced to buy back their positions

* This triggered a short squeeze effect, accelerating price movement upward

* These forced liquidations often create temporary resistance zones on lower timeframes, especially when funding rates increase rapidly

🧠 Final Thoughts

Monitoring open interest behavior and liquidation maps gives us deep insight into what is actually driving price action, especially on short to mid timeframes.

Right now, Ethereum’s move looks leverage-driven, aggressive, and emotional — which means opportunity is there, but so is risk.

Written by Amr Taha

📰 Daily Market Update

The first day of 2026 kicked off with a massive shift in stablecoin behavior

📊 Exchange Withdrawing Addresses & Transactions – Binance (USDT ERC20)

The first two charts show USDT withdrawing activity from Binance, measured in two complementary ways:

📉 Exchange Withdrawing Addresses:

Counts how many wallet addresses are withdrawing USDT from Binance.

📉 Exchange Withdrawing Transactions:

Measures the total number of USDT withdrawal transactions executed.

🔬 How to read this:

⬆️ High values usually mean investors are pulling liquidity out of the exchange, often signaling risk-off behavior or uncertainty.

⬇️ Low values typically suggest investors are keeping funds on Binance, often in preparation to buy crypto assets or increase exposure.

⏲️ Key Historical Patterns

📆 November 9: A sharp spike in both withdrawing addresses and transactions.

📆 Peak: December 2022 (All-Time High)

This period coincided with:

The LUNA / UST collapse

The FTX collaps

📉 Current Situation

* Right now, we are seeing a significant drop in both USDT(ERC20) withdrawing addresses and transactions on Binance .

* Current levels are very close to 2022 lows

* Also similar to July 2024 levels

This suggests that investors aren’t looking to withdraw USDT from Binance right now.

* Instead, it suggests that funds are remaining on the exchange, likely to increase exposure or purchase more crypto assets.

📊 [USDT] Wallets [Daily] Change Distribution – ETH (ERC20) Network

This chart breaks down daily changes in USDT balances across different wallet sizes.

📆 On Jan 1, The daily change for whale wallets alone exceeded $9 billion in a single day.

🧠 Final Thoughts

A sudden shift in daily transaction volumes in USDT wallets on the Ethereum network, along with a sharp drop in USDT withdrawals from Binance on the same network, could suggest that a group of investors is gearing up to make significant cryptocurrency purchases or aiming for steady returns through locking or staking.

Written by Amr Taha

According to the chart:

Total Inflow: 1.595T

Total Outflow: 1.583T

The net difference is around 12B USD, which is very limited. This indicates that there is no aggressive net capital inflow or outflow on Binance. The market is not in panic mode. Instead, it is clearly in a position rotation and wait and see phase. Such balance typically corresponds to sideways consolidation periods.

Inflows

USDT: 641.7B (40.22%)

USDC: 469.6B (29.43%)

Outflows

USDT: 627.4B (39.62%)

USDC: 469.5B (29.65%)

There is a very clear balance in stablecoins. Stablecoins are flowing into exchanges, but they are also flowing out. This means there is no large capital waiting on the sidelines for aggressive buying, but at the same time, there is no capital flight from the market. This structure usually forms when whales are undecided about buying, and when they do not find the current price levels sufficient to sell their ETH holdings aggressively.

ETH Flows

ETH Inflow: 418.1B (26.21%)

ETH Outflow: 420.6B (26.56%)

On the ETH side, there is a very slight outflow dominance. ETH is entering exchanges with potential selling intent. However, outflows are almost equal in size, meaning that sold ETH is being replenished. This shows that long term investors are not abandoning ETH. The activity is mainly driven by short term trades, futures/hedging positions, and arbitrage related flows. These inflows and outflows do not create strong selling pressure on ETH price, but they also lack the strength needed to initiate a rally.

Assets such as UNI, LINK, AAVE, DAI, and PAXG represent very small proportions.

There is no altcoin season behavior. If an altcoin rally were underway, we would expect to see outflows exceeding inflows for these assets meaning increased withdrawals from exchanges.

Overall, ETH price is likely to continue moving sideways in the short term. Any breakouts may remain fake breakouts, and the probability of liquidity hunts appears high.

Written by PelinayPA

The current price of $ETH is at the level of whales' accumulation price.

Whales have accumulated a huge amount of $ETH at recent prices.

They are preparing for the next step, accelerating their accumulation in anticipation of the upcoming rally.

If they expected a decline, there would be no reason to buy at the current price. They are strongly expecting a rise.

Written by CW8900

In December 2025, Ethereum spot ETFs recorded a net outflow of approximately $531 million. A key structural insight this month is the extreme concentration of outflows in a single fund. BlackRock’s iShares Ethereum Trust ETF alone accounted for roughly $532 million in net outflows, effectively explaining nearly the entire monthly ETF outflow for Ethereum.

Meanwhile, other ETH spot ETFs exhibited far more neutral behavior, with some even posting modest inflows. This divergence indicates that institutional selling pressure was not broad-based, but instead driven by position adjustments within one dominant investment vehicle. Such behavior is typical during transitional market phases, where capital rotation and targeted de-risking replace indiscriminate risk-off selling across the entire ETF complex.

From a structural perspective, the sharp slowdown in total outflows compared to November’s $1.41 billion, combined with the dominance of BlackRock’s iShares Ethereum Trust in December, points to a phase of seller concentration and potential exhaustion. Historically, this type of flow dynamic tends to align more with price stabilization and consolidation rather than a continuation of strong downside momentum.

Importantly, the data does not yet confirm renewed institutional demand for Ethereum. Instead, it signals a shift from broad-based distribution toward selective deleveraging, led primarily by one large institutional product. As long as major funds such as BlackRock’s iShares Ethereum Trust ETF remain in net outflow territory, it remains premature to declare a definitive reversal in institutional positioning.

In summary, December reflects cooling ETF-driven selling pressure, with BlackRock’s iShares Ethereum Trust acting as the principal source of outflows. Monitoring whether flows in this fund stabilize or turn positive will be critical for assessing Ethereum’s next institutional cycle.

Written by CryptoOnchain

The chart highlights a renewed deterioration in short-term holder (STH) profitability. Currently, STH realized profit and loss has fallen back into negative territory, with the aggregate profit/loss margin hovering around -12%, despite Bitcoin price remaining relatively elevated compared to prior cycles.

Historically, sustained periods where STHs operate at a loss tend to coincide with either late-stage corrections or consolidation phases within broader uptrends. This dynamic reflects rising sell-side pressure from newer market participants who entered at higher prices and are now underwater, increasing sensitivity to short-term price fluctuations.

Notably, Bitcoin price is still trading close to the STH realized price, suggesting that the market is testing an important behavioral support zone. In past cycles, sharp expansions in STH losses often preceded volatility spikes, either flushing out weak hands or marking transitional phases before trend continuation.

From a macro-on-chain perspective, the absence of extreme STH losses similar to 2018 or mid-2022 implies that structural damage remains limited so far. However, the persistence of negative STH margins signals fragility in short-term demand and highlights the importance of monitoring whether losses deepen or begin to compress.

In short, short-term holders are once again under pressure. The next directional move is likely to be defined by whether STH profitability can recover quickly or slips further, amplifying downside volatility.

Written by CryptoZeno

As 2025 came to a close, the Bitcoin market entered a bear market, confirmed by declining demand after the October peak. During this period, the price went through sharp corrections. To assess whether there is support from real network usage — which would indicate proximity to a bottom — or whether speculation still prevails, increasing the likelihood of further declines, we turn to CryptoQuant’s on-chain indicator: Bitcoin’s Market Balance Index (MBI).

INTERPRETATION OF THE MBI AND CURRENT SITUATION

The MBI is built from two key metrics: OI SMA7D, which reflects the intensity of traders’ bets, and NVT SMA7D, which shows how much the price is supported by actual network usage. The combination of these indicators allows us to measure whether the market is more fundamentally driven or more speculative.

◾Real network usage (0.0 – 0.3) → price supported by fundamentals, period of solidity, possible bottom.

◾Neutral (0.3 – 0.6) → balance, neither purely network-driven nor purely speculative, transitional phase.

◾Speculation (0.6 – 1.0) → price driven by market bets, higher risk of correction.

◾Current value → 0.48, network in balance.

CONCLUSION

The MBI confirms that the market is in a state of equilibrium, with the index at 0.48 — within the neutral range. This shows that BTC’s price has been divided between periods of stronger alignment with real network usage and phases dominated by speculation. It makes clear that the start of 2026 will be marked by uncertainty in the cycle’s direction, as neither force consistently prevails.

Written by GugaOnChain

Supply in Profit (%) is an on-chain metric that measures the proportion of Bitcoin supply currently held in profit. It is widely used to assess where the market stands within the broader cycle and whether a transition phase is underway.

🟩 Bull Market (Euphoria Phase): ＞80%

🟨 Transition Phase: 55%–80%

🟥 Bear Market / Bottoming Phase: ≤55%

At present, Supply in Profit stands at 68.85%, remaining firmly within the transition zone (🟨) after entering a clear downtrend since October 2025. This is not a short-lived pullback, but a sustained multi-month decline, signaling the kind of accumulated fatigue typically observed in the late stages of a cycle.

Market internals are gradually weakening, while macro conditions—such as persistent geopolitical risks and a strengthening preference for safe-haven assets—continue to act as headwinds for risk assets like Bitcoin.

★ More important than the fact that Supply in Profit has fallen below 80% is how long it remains in this range.

If price action continues to consolidate and the metric stagnates around the 70% level, historical cycles suggest an increasing likelihood of a transition into a broader bear market. On the other hand, if the indicator reverses into a positive slope and recovers back above the 75–80% range, the possibility of cycle extension would still remain.

🤔 At this stage, rather than making definitive directional calls, it is more prudent to view the market as being in the early phase of a transition from a bull market, where conservative positioning and disciplined risk management become increasingly important.

Written by Yonsei_dent

1. Since the sharp sell-off in October 2025, open interest has remained range-bound. This indicates a decline in demand within the derivatives market.

2. A rise in estimated leverage suggests an increase in speculative demand among market participants.

From the chart, we can observe that when open interest fails to show directional expansion and remains range-bound while estimated leverage rises, price tends to decline. This pattern has occurred twice since October, and structurally, the market has yet to show meaningful improvement into 2026.

Since December 27, 2025, estimated leverage has started to rise again, while open interest continues to remain within a range. This calls for heightened risk management.

Written by COINDREAM

Bitcoin is in a post-decline, range-bound phase under restrictive financial conditions, with direction remaining conditionally bearish. Historically, U.S. midterm election years tend to bring equity weakness and higher volatility, and Bitcoin has often softened during the same periods.

This is not because elections directly determine prices. Rather, several structural factors tend to overlap: policy uncertainty encourages risk reduction, unclear fiscal and regulatory outlooks delay investment, tightening monetary policy reduces liquidity, and derivatives deleveraging amplifies downside moves. These forces affect both stocks and Bitcoin, with Bitcoin often reacting more sharply due to leverage.

CryptoQuant’s MVRV (attached) supports this view. In the midterm years of 2014, 2018, and 2022, MVRV fell to around or below 1, indicating price compression toward average cost basis. MVRV did not lead the decline but confirmed the effects of sustained selling pressure and liquidation-driven markets.

Looking ahead, 2026 is also a U.S. midterm year. Key events to watch include Fed policy decisions, fiscal negotiations in Congress, developments in crypto regulation, and shifts in election dynamics.

The alternative scenario would be declining policy uncertainty alongside improving flows and stabilized leverage. For now, a range-bound market remains the base case, but a clear MVRV break below 1 combined with deteriorating flows would warrant reassessment.

Written by XWIN Research Japan

Data indicates a significant development in the Ethereum (ETH) situation on the Binance platform, with the Exchange Supply Ratio (ESR) rising to approximately 0.035, marking its highest level since September the past circulating supply is currently held on Binance, highlighting a notable increase in exchange-held balances.

The Exchange Supply Ratio measures the proportion of ETH stored on exchanges relative to the total circulating supply. A rising ESR particularly at the 0.035 level signals that a growing share of Ethereum is being transferred onto Binance, often interpreted as a potential increase in selling pressure or short-term liquidity availability. Given Binance’s dominant role in global trading volume, movements in this metric tend to have an outsized impact on market dynamics.

During December, Ethereum inflows into Binance reached approximately 8.5 million ETH, reinforcing the upward trend in the Exchange Supply Ratio. At price levels near $2,900, this influx represents a significant concentration of value entering the exchange, increasing the likelihood of heightened market activity and volatility.

While an elevated Exchange Supply Ratio is commonly associated with potential downside risk, broader market conditions remain decisive. In certain scenarios, rising exchange balances may coincide with strong spot demand or institutional flows, which can absorb available supply and limit immediate price weakness. If the Exchange Supply Ratio sustains levels around 0.035 or continues to rise, Ethereum may experience increased volatility or corrective movements. Conversely, a decline below this level would suggest renewed accumulation and a shift toward long-term holding behavior, which is generally constructive for Ethereum’s medium-term outlook.

Written by Arab Chain

Ethereum’s 14-day moving average of the Taker Buy/Sell Ratio on Binance has recently reached 1.005, marking its highest level since July. A ratio above 1 generally indicates that aggressive market buy orders are outweighing sell orders, signaling growing bullish intent among derivatives traders.

What makes this development particularly noteworthy is that it occurs while ETH price remains relatively depressed compared to its previous highs. This divergence often suggests early positioning or accumulation behavior, where aggressive participants enter the market ahead of a potential directional move rather than reacting to price momentum.

Historically, sustained periods where the Taker Buy/Sell Ratio remains above 1—especially when confirmed by a moving average—have often coincided with rising bullish volatility or attempts at trend reversals. It reflects increased urgency from buyers willing to pay market prices, a behavior typically seen during phases of improving sentiment.

That said, this metric should not be interpreted in isolation. Elevated taker buy pressure without confirmation from spot market demand or broader volume expansion may result in short-lived price reactions rather than a sustained rally. False signals can occur if leverage-driven activity dominates without real capital inflows.

Overall, the current structure suggests that aggressive buying pressure is building in Ethereum’s derivatives market. If the ratio remains consistently above 1, it may increase the probability of a price recovery attempt. However, confirmation will depend on price follow-through and alignment with other on-chain and market-wide indicators.

Written by CryptoOnchain

Data Observation:

The Ethereum Exchange Netflow (Total) on Binance (14-day SMA) has surged dramatically, reaching 24.5K ETH. This marks the highest level of net inflows since early July.

On-Chain Interpretation:

Positive netflow indicates that the volume of ETH being deposited into Binance exceeds the volume being withdrawn. A spike of this magnitude suggests that investors, possibly whales, are moving significant amounts of ETH from cold storage onto the exchange.

Market Implication:

Historically, large spikes in positive netflow are correlated with increased selling pressure or high volatility. With the price currently consolidating around $2.98K (down from recent highs), this influx of liquidity could imply two scenarios:

Capitulation: Holders losing confidence and preparing to sell.

Hedging: Traders depositing collateral for derivative positions.

Conclusion:

Given the downtrend in price since November, this sudden increase in exchange reserves serves as a bearish signal in the short term. Traders should exercise caution, as the increased supply on the order books may suppress immediate price recovery attempts.

Written by CryptoOnchain