Crypto Assets Manager

الخوف الشديد يسحب BTC إلى الأسفل

الخوف الشديد يسحب BTC إلى الأسفل الإغلاق الأسبوعي تحت 60K دولار أو فوق 70K دولار؟
BTC
3.74%

· 9س
أداء BTC$BTC هذا الأسبوع يخبرنا بشيء، ليس لأنه صعودي، ولكن لأنه يتحدث عن استنفاد المشاعر.

لقد رأينا للتو مؤشر الخوف والطمع في العملات الرقمية على CoinMarketCap يصل إلى بعض أدنى مستوياته لهذا العام، وعلى مدار الـ 90 يومًا الماضية بالكاد تحرك من التشاؤم الشديد.

أمس: خوف شديد - 8

الأسبوع الماضي: خوف شديد - 5

في 15 ديسمبر 2018، وصلت BTC إلى أدنى مستوى لها وهو 3,023 دولار بينما سجل مؤشر الخوف والطمع 11.

@Fogo Official
We just saw the Crypto Fear and Greed Index on CoinMarketCap hit some of its lowest levels of the year, and over the last 90 days has barely budged out of extreme pessimism.

Yesterday: Extreme Fear - 8

Last Week: Extreme Fear - 5

On December 15, 2018, BTC reached a low of $3,023 while the Fear & Greed Index registered 11.

On March 17, 2020, BTC hit $3,897 with the index at 8.

On June 18, 2022, BTC fell to $17,420, with the index reading 6.

Most recently, on February 12, 2026, BTC traded around $67,293 while the Fear & Greed Index showed 5.

These readings aren’t noise. They reflect a market that’s been grinding lower with minimal conviction.

Since the recent breakdown attempts, BTC$BTC has been dancing between key levels. The real story now is in the weekly close dynamics, will we confirm sub-60K pressure, or find enough support to push back toward 70K?

Here’s what stands out: The Fear & Greed Index signaling extreme fear often precedes volatility compressions, not immediate rallies.

Price behavior near macro support levels shows buyers aren’t capitulating wholesale, even amid fear.

But liquidity conditions remain tight and macro headwinds aren’t gone. This feels less like confirmation of a new leg and more like a market seeking balance between exhausted sellers and cautious buyers.

If BTC stabilizes above critical levels and fear begins to thaw, sentiment could improve quickly. If not, we stay range-bound and choppy markets test conviction.

For now this is a narrative of relief, not triumph.Manage risk. Observe how levels hold. And remember: markets turn not when fear disappears, but when selling pressure finally stops.

Extreme Fear Drags BTC$BTC Down Weekly close under 60K or above 70K?

Well this depends on what technical structure and price action are saying on the chart because the Extreme Fear that is in the market currently as kept Sellers (Bear) in control and also because Bitcoin always follows priority scenario, to be precise here, After BTC failing to consolidate above the key technical & volume level at $68,000, price rolled over into a confident decline.

However, the projected buyer zone has not yet been tapped, and the market has formed only a local rebound.

$XRP
$DEFI
XRP (XRP) يتلقى اهتمامًا متجددًا بعد أن وضعت Ripple خططًا لتوسيع دورها في التمويل اللامركزي، لكن بيانات الأسعار تظهر فقط حركة متواضعة حتى الآن.

XRP يتداول حاليًا حوالي 1.44 دولار أمريكي مع أداء 24 ساعة تقريبًا ثابت، مما يشير إلى أن أي ارتفاع قد كان خلال اليوم أو لفترة قصيرة.

خريطة طريق DeFi لشبكة XRP Ledger مهمة لأنها قد تضيف الإقراض، AMMs، والأصول المرمزة فوق دور مدفوعات XRP.

الأشياء الرئيسية التي يجب مراقبتها هي الإطلاقات الملموسة، نمو السيولة على السلسلة، وما إذا كان المطورون والمستخدمون سيعتمدون فعلاً ميزات DeFi الجديدة.

@Plasma $XPL #PlasmaXPL
Some projects feel like they’re constantly chasing attention. Others quietly build while letting the work speak over time. Plasma feels closer to the second category, and that’s exactly why following XPL$XPL stays interesting for me. #Plasma
{alpha}(560x405fbc9004d857903bfd6b3357792d71a50726b0)

Bitcoin's outlook is a tug-of-war between institutional adoption and macro headwinds.

@Vanar @Vanar vanar, tag token
Institutional Demand: ETF flows and potential 401(k) access could unlock massive capital, providing structural price support.
Regulatory Shifts: Upcoming U.S. legislation and SEC engagement may reduce uncertainty, boosting institutional confidence.

Macro Sensitivity: Fed policy and inflation data will heavily influence BTC as a risk asset, driving near-term volatility.

Deep Dive
1. Institutional Catalysts & Capital Flows (Bullish Impact)
Overview: The primary driver is institutional capital via U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs, which hold over 1.51 million BTC (7.2% of supply). Recent weekly outflows of $1.8 billion indicate waning short-term confidence (Coinspeaker). However, a major medium-term catalyst is the potential opening of the $12.5 trillion 401(k) market to crypto, which could funnel billions into blue-chip assets like BTC (crypto.news).

What this means: Sustained ETF inflows are a direct, measurable source of buy-side pressure. Approval for 401(k) allocations would represent a new, long-term demand channel, structurally reducing circulating supply and supporting higher price floors.

2. Regulatory & Policy Developments (Mixed Impact)
Overview: Regulatory clarity is advancing. SEC Chair Paul Atkins will speak at a major Bitcoin conference in April 2026, signaling unprecedented engagement (CoinMarketCap). Concurrently, the Trump administration is drafting a framework for a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve and pushing bipartisan stablecoin legislation (Bitcoinist).

What this means: Clear, supportive regulation reduces institutional entry barriers and can trigger bullish sentiment. However, the process is slow, and any regulatory setbacks or delays could renew uncertainty, causing negative price reactions in the interim.

3. Macroeconomic Pressure & Sentiment (Bearish Impact)
Overview: Bitcoin is currently trading as a liquidity-sensitive risk asset, not a dollar hedge. It fell 6% to $84,000 on January 29 amid a broad market selloff, showing high correlation with tech stocks and gold (Bitcoin Magazine). Key U.S. inflation (CPI, PCE) and jobs data directly sway Fed rate expectations, which are the dominant short-term price drivers.

What this means: In a "higher-for-longer" rate environment, Bitcoin faces headwinds from a strong dollar and reduced risk appetite. Until it decouples from traditional markets, its price will remain vulnerable to negative macro surprises and risk-off events.

Conclusion
Bitcoin's path hinges on institutional adoption clashing with macroeconomic forces. A holder must weigh long-term promise against short-term volatility. Will sustained ETF inflows re-emerge before the next macro shock?

توقعات البيتكوين هي صراع بين اعتماد المؤسسات والرياح المعاكسة الكلية.

الطلب المؤسسي: تدفقات ETF والوصول المحتمل إلى 401(k) يمكن أن يفتح رأس المال الضخم، مما يوفر دعمًا هيكليًا للأسعار.

تحولات تنظيمية: قد يقلل التشريع الأمريكي المقبل وتفاعل SEC من عدم اليقين، مما يعزز ثقة المؤسسات.

حساسية كلية: سياسة الاحتياطي الفيدرالي وبيانات التضخم ستؤثر بشكل كبير على BTC كأصل مخاطرة، مما يقود تقلبات قصيرة الأجل.

غوص عميق
1. المحفزات المؤسسية وتدفقات رأس المال (أثر صعودي)

Bitcoin's outlook is a tug-of-war between institutional adoption and macro headwinds.

Institutional Demand: ETF flows and potential 401(k) access could unlock massive capital, providing structural price support.

Regulatory Shifts: Upcoming U.S. legislation and SEC engagement may reduce uncertainty, boosting institutional confidence.

Macro Sensitivity: Fed policy and inflation data will heavily influence BTC as a risk asset, driving near-term volatility.

1. Institutional Catalysts & Capital Flows (Bullish Impact)
Overview: The primary driver is institutional capital via U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs, which hold over 1.51 million $BTC (7.2% of supply). Recent weekly outflows of $1.8 billion indicate waning short-term confidence (Coinspeaker). However, a major medium-term catalyst is the potential opening of the $12.5 trillion 401(k) market to crypto, which could funnel billions into blue-chip assets like
$BTC (crypto.news).
What this means: Sustained ETF inflows are a direct, measurable source of buy-side pressure. Approval for 401(k) allocations would represent a new, long-term demand channel, structurally reducing circulating supply and supporting higher price floors.

2. Regulatory & Policy Developments (Mixed Impact)
Overview: Regulatory clarity is advancing. SEC Chair Paul Atkins will speak at a major Bitcoin conference in April 2026, signaling unprecedented engagement (CoinMarketCap). Concurrently, the Trump administration is drafting a framework for a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve and pushing bipartisan stablecoin legislation (Bitcoinist).

What this means: Clear, supportive regulation reduces institutional entry barriers and can trigger bullish sentiment. However, the process is slow, and any regulatory setbacks or delays could renew uncertainty, causing negative price reactions in the interim.

3. Macroeconomic Pressure & Sentiment (Bearish Impact)
Overview: Bitcoin is currently trading as a liquidity-sensitive risk asset, not a dollar hedge. It fell 6% to $84,000 on January 29 amid a broad market selloff, showing high correlation with tech stocks and gold (Bitcoin Magazine). Key U.S. inflation (CPI, PCE) and jobs data directly sway Fed rate expectations, which are the dominant short-term price drivers.

What this means: In a "higher-for-longer" rate environment, Bitcoin faces headwinds from a strong dollar and reduced risk appetite. Until it decouples from traditional markets, its price will remain vulnerable to negative macro surprises and risk-off events.

Conclusion
Bitcoin's path hinges on institutional adoption clashing with macroeconomic forces. A holder must weigh long-term promise against short-term volatility. Will sustained ETF inflows re-emerge before the next macro shock?

توقعات البيتكوين هي صراع بين اعتماد المؤسسات والرياح المعاكسة الكلية.

الطلب المؤسسي: قد تفتح تدفقات صناديق الاستثمار المتداولة وإمكانية الوصول إلى 401(k) رأس المال الضخم، مما يوفر دعمًا هيكليًا للأسعار.

التغيرات التنظيمية: قد تقلل التشريعات الأمريكية القادمة وتفاعل هيئة الأوراق المالية والبورصات من عدم اليقين، مما يعزز الثقة المؤسسية.

حساسية الاقتصاد الكلي: ستؤثر سياسة الاحتياطي الفيدرالي وبيانات التضخم بشكل كبير على البيتكوين كأصل محفوف بالمخاطر، مما يدفع التقلبات على المدى القريب.

$BTC غوص عميق
1. المحفزات المؤسسية وتدفقات رأس المال (أثر إيجابي)

Ethereum fell 5.25% over the last 24h, underperforming the broader crypto market's 4.32% drop. This sharp decline extends recent losses, with ETH down 3.21% over the past week. Here are the main factors:
Broad Market Downturn – Bitcoin plunged to a two-month low, dragging major altcoins like ETH lower in a correlated sell-off.
Leverage Unwind & Short Pressure – Over $800M in crypto positions were liquidated, with a notable whale profiting from a large ETH short, accelerating downward momentum.
Geopolitical Risk Aversion – Rising tensions between the U.S. and Iran spurred a flight to traditional safe havens, dampening appetite for risk assets like crypto