Thoughts from a lawyer with 20 years of practicing civil litigation in federal courts: the case is highly unlikely to be appealed to the Supreme Court. The most likely outcome is that Judge Torres denies both motions for summary judgment in part, which will set the stage for trial. Summary judgment rulings are not appealable. After the MSJ rulings, the parties will have an inflection point to re-evaluate settlement, and as discussed below I think that settlement is highly likely after the MSJ rulings.
In light of the Coinbase lawsuit, I think it's highly likely that the SEC will understand that its chances to advance its agenda through the courts is better in the Coinbase suit where Coinbase will not have the information necessary to defend against the SEC's claim that the tokens listed in the complaint (e.g., ALGO) are securities. So, it will be in SEC's interests and Ripple's business interests to wrap up this lawsuit, and after MSJ rulings is the most logical time to do that. Ripple agrees to pay a large sum of money, SEC agrees that XRP is not a security after the ICO, and secondary sales of XRP therefore not illegal. This construct will allow both parties to declare victory, and sets up XRP as the only token other than BTC in the US with regulatory clarity.
As an aside, my guess is that Congress will pass crypto legislation in 2024 during the lame duck session. The US is falling behind the UK and EU, and the big banks will not want to cede an advantage. In the meantime, the SEC will continue its crusade to choke out the US exchanges so that the big banks can capture the market after legislation is passed.
Someone remind me of this in late 2024 to see if any of this panned out?
