CPI print incoming and here's how $SPX has reacted to every single inflation report in 2025 so far:
Oct 14: -1.08% (ouch)
Sept 11: +0.86%
Aug 12: +0.26%
July 14: +0.38%
June 10: -1.62% (double ouch)
May 12: -0.16%
April 10: -0.11%
Mar 11: -0.08%
Feb 13: +0.05%
Jan 13: -0.19%
Pattern? The big red days came when inflation surprised hot. The green days came when it cooled or met expectations. We've had two brutal selloffs on CPI this year already.
Today's number will set the tone for the next leg. If inflation stays sticky or ticks higher, expect another flush. If it cools, we could rip. This is a pure binary event—position accordingly or sit it out. No middle ground on CPI day.
Oct 14: -1.08% (ouch)
Sept 11: +0.86%
Aug 12: +0.26%
July 14: +0.38%
June 10: -1.62% (double ouch)
May 12: -0.16%
April 10: -0.11%
Mar 11: -0.08%
Feb 13: +0.05%
Jan 13: -0.19%
Pattern? The big red days came when inflation surprised hot. The green days came when it cooled or met expectations. We've had two brutal selloffs on CPI this year already.
Today's number will set the tone for the next leg. If inflation stays sticky or ticks higher, expect another flush. If it cools, we could rip. This is a pure binary event—position accordingly or sit it out. No middle ground on CPI day.