الرئيس التنفيذي لـ Hyblock Capital لا يتوقع عودة موسم العملات البديلة مع استمرار عدم بلوغ معيار 75%

Crypto News and Tradfi News - COINOTAG · 2026-11-08T16:34:48.000Z

• قال شوبه فارما، الرئيس التنفيذي لشركة Hyblock Capital، في 8 نوفمبر إن موسم العملات البديلة التقليدي لن يعود. • يعرّف معيار فارما موسم العملات البديلة بأنه تفوق 75% من بين 100 عملة بديلة يجري تتبعها على بيتكوين خلال فترة ممتدة. • لم يظهر أي تفوق مستمر للعملات البديلة على بيتكوين خلال العام ونصف العام إلى العامين الماضيين. اختبار مبني على 100 عملة بديلة أخضع شوبه فارما، الرئيس التنفيذي والشريك المؤسس لشركة Hyblock Capital، مسألة موسم العملات البديلة لاختبار بيانات محدد، وخلص إلى أن السيناريو التقليدي لن يعود في هذه الدورة. ويستند هذا التوقع، الذي أُعلن في 8 نوفمبر، إلى معيار مرجعي لا إلى معنويات السوق: فبحسب الإطار الذي تتبعه شركته، لا يُعدّ هناك موسم للعملات البديلة إلا عندما تتفوق نحو 75 في المئة من مجموعة تضم 100 عملة بديلة مراقبة على بيتكوين على مدى فترة ممتدة. ويقول فارما إن هذا المعيار لم يُظهر أي موسم واضح خلال العام ونصف العام إلى العامين الماضيين. فقد ارتفع سعر بيتكوين خلال تلك الفترة، لكن المكاسب لم تنتشر في السوق الأوسع بالطريقة التي شهدتها الدورات السابقة. وهو لا يعتبر غياب الموسم توقفًا مؤقتًا، بل مؤشرًا على تغير هيكلي. وهنا تكمن الحجة التي يمكن للقارئ تقييمها: عتبة محددة، وفترة زمنية، وادعاء بأن العتبة لم تتحقق. وتعتمد الأهداف السعرية التي تستند إلى السيناريو القديم، وهي 5 دولارات لـ XRP ودولار واحد لـ Dogecoin، تحديدًا على سيناريو الارتفاع الواسع الذي بات يراه غير مرجح. وشركة Hyblock Capital، وهي شركة أبحاث تحلل بيانات السوق وسلوك التداول، هي مصدر هذا الإطار، وقد استند فارما في رأيه إلى قراءاتها لا إلى المعنويات. ولم يطرح هذا التوقع على أنه حكم على بيتكوين نفسها. ويكتسب التعريف أهميته لأنه يفصل بين شرط قائم على البيانات والاستخدام الفضفاض الذي يُطلق به المصطلح عادةً؛ فالتقييم يتعلق باتساع نطاق الأداء ومدته، لا بمدى جدوى العملات البديلة الفردية.

• Hyblock Capital CEO Shubh Varma said on November 8 the classic altcoin season is not returning.
• Varma's benchmark defines altcoin season as 75% of 100 tracked altcoins beating Bitcoin over a sustained period.
• No sustained altcoin outperformance of Bitcoin has appeared in the past one and a half to two years.
A Test Built on 100 Altcoins
Shubh Varma, chief executive and cofounder of Hyblock Capital, has put the altcoin season question through a defined data test and concluded the classic setup is not coming back this cycle. The call, made on November 8, rests on a benchmark rather than on market mood: in the framework his firm tracks, an altcoin season exists only when roughly 75 percent of a monitored panel of 100 altcoins outperform Bitcoin over a sustained stretch. On that measure, Varma says, the past one and a half to two years show no distinct season at all. Bitcoin has rallied in that window, yet the gains never spread across the wider market the way earlier cycles delivered them. He treats the absence not as a temporary pause but as a marker of structural change. This is the part of the argument a reader can weigh: a threshold, a time window, and a claim that the threshold has not been met. The headline targets built on the old setup, XRP at $5 and Dogecoin at $1, depend on precisely the broad-rally scenario he now considers unlikely. Hyblock Capital, a research firm that analyzes market data and trading behavior, is the source of the framework, and Varma grounded his view in its readings rather than in sentiment. He did not frame the call as a verdict on Bitcoin itself. The definition matters because it separates a data condition from the loose usage the term usually attracts, and the judgment is about breadth and duration, not about whether individual altcoins are viable.
The core of the thesis is where money can now go. In earlier cycles, Varma argues, the product shelf on crypto platforms was narrow, so capital entering the market during an upswing tended to slide into a relatively small group of altcoins, and Bitcoin gains cascaded down the risk curve over time. Today the same venues list products tied to real-world assets, on-chain representations of bonds, funds or commodities, alongside AI-linked tools. That variety gives investor capital direct alternatives to altcoins, and in Varma's view it breaks the old transmission: the flow of Bitcoin profits into smaller coins no longer operates the way it once did. He stops short of saying altcoins will collapse collectively. His distance is from the classic season scenario, the one that carries XRP to $5 and Dogecoin to $1, because demand in the market now finds many destinations. A rotation as powerful and as broad as the ones earlier cycles produced should therefore not be expected, in his reading. The assessment cuts against investors who anchor to the 2020-2021 cycle model. Under that model, a weakening of Bitcoin's dominance was read as the trigger for a broad-based altcoin advance; Varma holds that the market's structure has changed enough to strip that assumption of its old force. That reframes the debate. The question is no longer whether altcoins individually look strong or weak, but how much product variety sits on the same exchanges and how many alternatives capital can reach outside the established coin roster of the wider Bitcoin market.
The Premise the Argument Rests On
Our reading: the load-bearing premise is product mix, and it is the part the argument treats as settled. If venues keep adding tokenized real-world assets and AI-linked tools, the marginal dollar splits across more shelves and dominance-based rotation signals lose explanatory power; that logic runs counter to Bitcoin maximalism, which writes the wider market off on different grounds entirely. A second dependency is the benchmark itself: 75 of 100 over an unspecified window is a convention, and a different panel or timeframe could read the same two years differently. Even capital that stays inside Bitcoin now has destinations of its own, Bitcoin DeFi among them, competing with the old rotation narrative from within the asset. Cycle models keyed to the halving calendar organized earlier advances; whether product variety has permanently dulled them will be visible in the next Bitcoin advance, which our Bitcoin technical analysis tracks, and in whether Varma's panel finally spreads.