Spot Bitcoin ETFs just finished their worst week in a while, losing $1.28B, and Fear & Greed is stuck at 25.
Yet $BTC spent Saturday calmly at $76K, even after news of US strikes on Iran.
The question for the next 36 hours: does the weekly close confirm $75.5K as support, or does it hand sellers the next leg down?
📌 IN SHORT
• Price ~$76,070, +0.3% to +0.6% in 24h
• 24h range: $74,921–76,266. Friday's low was $74,722–74,888
• Weekly candle so far: open $78,354, high $81,196, about −2.9%
📈 TECHNICALS
• Holding the 200-day EMA (~$76.1–76.5K). Below the 100-day SMA (~$77.06K) and the 50-day SMA (~$81.97K)
• Daily RSI 38.8. Bollinger bands: mid $79.5K, lower $74.7K
• Resistance: $76.95K, $77.5K, $80K, then the $81.4–82.2K liquidity cluster
• Support: $75.5K, $75K, $74.4–74.6K
🏦 FUNDAMENTALS & ON-CHAIN
• Spot ETFs: −$411.9M on Nov 6, −$1.28B for the week. IBIT accounted for −$1.21B
• Strategy ($MSTR) last added 811 BTC on Nov 2 for $65.5M
• Fed: odds of a Dec 9 hike rose to 77–80% after +165K payrolls
• Derivatives: about $1.27B liquidated in Friday's move, mostly longs. Deribit funding is neutral at 0.0019%/8h
📰 TOP NEWS
1⃣ BTC held near $76K for about 18 hours after confirmation of US strikes on Iran
2⃣ Spot BTC and ETH ETFs lost about $1.65B combined this week
3⃣ CPI consensus: +0.3% m/m headline, +0.2% core. No year-over-year figures this time
🎯 SCENARIOS
🟢 Bullish: a weekly close above $75.5K followed by a break of $76.95–77.5K opens $77.5–80K
⚪ Base: a $74.4–77.5K range into Tuesday's CPI
🔴 Bearish: a weekly close below $75.5K brings $69–73K into view
🧠 WHAT ANALYSTS SAY
• Material Indicators (Keith Alan): $75.5K is unconfirmed until the weekly close, and a break points to $69K
• Investing.com flags $73K as the next downside level
• Standard Chartered still targets $100K by end-2026
🗓 UPCOMING (UTC)
• Mon Nov 9, 00:00: weekly close
• Tue Nov 10, 13:30: US October CPI
• Fri Nov 13, ~01:40: Bitcoin difficulty adjustment
• Fri Nov 13, 13:30: US October PPI
• Wed Dec 9, 19:00: FOMC rate decision
Where does $BTC close the week: above $77.5K, between $75.5–77.5K, or below $75.5K?