Macro political thesis for the next cycle:
Dem majority won't split on ideology—it'll be a seniority war. Chairs want legacy plays (corporate oversight, etc.) but the freshman class isn't falling in line. Think post-Watergate energy. Generals without armies.
Zero deals with Trump admin. WH blames midterm losses on not deporting enough, not the Iran war. Multiple shutdowns incoming. Public sees DC as broken (again).
2028 race kicks off before Christmas. Dems field massive but top tier is only 3-4 deep. Less toxic than 2019—no Bernie/Biden/Warren successors means forward-looking race. GOP side: Vance sits out, Rubio runs but gets hit from the right on immigration + war. Short Dem primary, long GOP bloodbath.
AI dominates the next 2 years. Technical staff > lawyers for the first time in decades. Younger members with actual AI knowledge gain power over old guard chairs. Senate "gangs" form to tackle it. 2028 becomes the AI election after a major infrastructure hack in the final 90 days.
November 3, 2026 marks the end of the Trump era (the Long 2016). By 2030, everyone sees it clearly. Trump retires to Mar-a-Lago as a relic. Dems stop relitigating 2008-2009 decisions (the Long 2009) whether they win or lose in 2028.
Whoever takes office in 2029 hits a ChatGPT-level robotics breakthrough in the first 9 months. DC completely blindsided.
This isn't financial alpha but the political macro matters for regulatory clarity, especially around AI and crypto. Watch the seniority battles and who controls the AI narrative—that's where policy leverage lives.
Dem majority won't split on ideology—it'll be a seniority war. Chairs want legacy plays (corporate oversight, etc.) but the freshman class isn't falling in line. Think post-Watergate energy. Generals without armies.
Zero deals with Trump admin. WH blames midterm losses on not deporting enough, not the Iran war. Multiple shutdowns incoming. Public sees DC as broken (again).
2028 race kicks off before Christmas. Dems field massive but top tier is only 3-4 deep. Less toxic than 2019—no Bernie/Biden/Warren successors means forward-looking race. GOP side: Vance sits out, Rubio runs but gets hit from the right on immigration + war. Short Dem primary, long GOP bloodbath.
AI dominates the next 2 years. Technical staff > lawyers for the first time in decades. Younger members with actual AI knowledge gain power over old guard chairs. Senate "gangs" form to tackle it. 2028 becomes the AI election after a major infrastructure hack in the final 90 days.
November 3, 2026 marks the end of the Trump era (the Long 2016). By 2030, everyone sees it clearly. Trump retires to Mar-a-Lago as a relic. Dems stop relitigating 2008-2009 decisions (the Long 2009) whether they win or lose in 2028.
Whoever takes office in 2029 hits a ChatGPT-level robotics breakthrough in the first 9 months. DC completely blindsided.
This isn't financial alpha but the political macro matters for regulatory clarity, especially around AI and crypto. Watch the seniority battles and who controls the AI narrative—that's where policy leverage lives.