I was scrolling through the timeline today and almost every post says BTC looks bad. So I checked how October actually went.
Bitcoin is down about 4% this month. Ethereum is down almost 14%. Solana and Doge are 15-17% down, and Cardano is close to 19%. So the coin everyone calls weak lost the least. Altcoins lost almost four times more. That surprised me a bit.
Last night the Fed held rates, but two members voted for a hike. BTC jumped above $81,000, then gave most of it back. Classic. It's sitting around $80K-$81K now.
What keeps me cautious: the average cost for US spot ETFs is around $81,500, and price is still below it. Plus about $10 billion in options expire Friday morning, and those days can get messy fast.
What keeps me from turning bearish: ETFs still bought on Tuesday (about $176M), and Fear & Greed is at 51. Nobody is greedy, which is usually healthier than when everyone is.
My levels are simple:
$80,000 is the one that matters. Lose it and $79,000 is next.
Above $81,700 I'd start taking the bounce seriously, and $82K would be the real test.
I'm not going to pretend I know what happens tomorrow. I'll be watching the expiry and trading small.
What do you think, breakout above $82K or a drop below $80K? Tell me in the comments 👇
Not financial advice, just my read. Use a stop loss.