**🧠 Homework done: what the chart, sentiment and macro say together**
BTC at **$81,340**. The moment calls for **caution**, and it's not a guess. Here are the three fronts:
**📊 Chart**
🔹 Daily: StochRSI at 7.6 (oversold), but MACD negative and OBV falling
🔹 Weekly: StochRSI at 85 (stretched) and price ~14% above the middle band (~$71,600)
**😐 Sentiment:** index at **50 (Neutral)**, no panic signaling a bottom.
**🏦 Macro**
🔺 September CPI: **3.72% YoY** (previously 3.35%), core +0.33% MoM vs ~0.20% expected
🔺 Odds of a Fed hike on **Oct 28** jumped to **over 50%**. Before the data, they were below 20%
🔺 10-year Treasury at **5.24%** (Oct 9) and oil above **$100** (Oct 7), with the Iran war
**🌍 Global:** US stocks hit records last week, while BTC remains **~34% below** its all-time high. Money is flowing to other assets.
**🧭 Takeaway:** oversold without a MACD turn and without relief in rates is an **alert, not an entry**. Zones: **~$80,200, ~$75,000 and ~$71,600**, only with the daily StochRSI crossing above 20.
Those who follow along go in with method and data. When the setup completes, I'll post here 🔔
⚠️ Technical analysis is not a guarantee or advice. Crypto is high risk.
#Bitcoin #BTC #CPI #Fed
BTC at **$81,340**. The moment calls for **caution**, and it's not a guess. Here are the three fronts:
**📊 Chart**
🔹 Daily: StochRSI at 7.6 (oversold), but MACD negative and OBV falling
🔹 Weekly: StochRSI at 85 (stretched) and price ~14% above the middle band (~$71,600)
**😐 Sentiment:** index at **50 (Neutral)**, no panic signaling a bottom.
**🏦 Macro**
🔺 September CPI: **3.72% YoY** (previously 3.35%), core +0.33% MoM vs ~0.20% expected
🔺 Odds of a Fed hike on **Oct 28** jumped to **over 50%**. Before the data, they were below 20%
🔺 10-year Treasury at **5.24%** (Oct 9) and oil above **$100** (Oct 7), with the Iran war
**🌍 Global:** US stocks hit records last week, while BTC remains **~34% below** its all-time high. Money is flowing to other assets.
**🧭 Takeaway:** oversold without a MACD turn and without relief in rates is an **alert, not an entry**. Zones: **~$80,200, ~$75,000 and ~$71,600**, only with the daily StochRSI crossing above 20.
Those who follow along go in with method and data. When the setup completes, I'll post here 🔔
⚠️ Technical analysis is not a guarantee or advice. Crypto is high risk.
#Bitcoin #BTC #CPI #Fed