بيتكوين (BTC) تحت دائرة الضوء بينما يتجاوزها غولدمان ساكس عند عائد السند الطويل البالغ 5.56%

Crypto News and Tradfi News - COINOTAG · 2026-09-29T05:17:52.000Z

• سجل عائد سندات الخزانة لِمدة 30 عامًا 5.56% في 29 سبتمبر، وهو أعلى مستوى خلال 52 أسبوعًا. • يقول أنشول سيغال، الشريك المشارك في قطاع الدخل الثابت والائتمان والعملات في غولدمان ساكس، إن السندات التي تقدم عوائد 5% أو أكثر توفر مكاسب محدودة. • تُظهر توقعات مسؤولي الاحتياطي الفيدرالي أن 16 من أصل 19 يتوقعون زيادة أخرى في سعر الفائدة هذا العام. ارتفع عائد السندات الطويلة إلى 5.56% صعد عائد سندات الخزانة الأمريكية لأجل 30 عامًا إلى 5.56% في 29 سبتمبر، وهو أعلى مستوى له خلال 52 أسبوعًا، ويتجه واحد من أقدم طاولات السندات في وول ستريت إلى توجيه العملاء بعيدًا عنه. فقد عرض أنشول سيغال، الشريك العالمي المشارك لقطاع الدخل الثابت والعملات والسلع لدى غولدمان ساكس، مبررات ذلك بعد أيام فقط من قيام الاحتياطي الفيدرالي برفع أسعار الفائدة في 16 سبتمبر. ووفقا لما جاء في تعليق الأسواق المنشور لدى البنك، جادل سيغال بأن السندات التي تحقق عوائد تبلغ 5% أو أكثر ليست أفضل صفقة متاحة، رغم أن العملاء يتوافدون لشراء السند الطويل عند ذلك المستوى أو أعلى. وقد ورد التعليق على منصة البنك الخاصة بدلا من منصة مؤتمر، ما منح المستثمرين نظرة مباشرة من إحدى أكبر شركات الخدمات في مجال الدخل الثابت في الشارع.

• 30-year Treasury yield hit 5.56% on September 29, its highest level in 52 weeks.
• Goldman Sachs FICC co-head Anshul Sehgal says bonds yielding 5% or more offer limited upside.
• Fed officials' projections show 16 of 19 expecting another rate increase this year.
Long Bond Yield Hits 5.56%
The 30-year US Treasury yield climbed to 5.56% on September 29, its highest reading in 52 weeks, and one of Wall Street’s most senior bond desks is steering clients away from it. Anshul Sehgal, global co-head of Fixed Income, Currencies and Commodities at Goldman Sachs, laid out the case just days after the Federal Reserve raised interest rates on September 16. In the bank’s published markets commentary, Sehgal argued that bonds yielding 5% or more are not the best trade available, even though clients are lining up to buy the long bond at that level or above. The comment landed on the bank’s own platform rather than a conference stage, giving investors a direct view from one of the largest fixed-income franchises on the Street.
His reasoning is structural rather than cyclical. Retiring baby boomers are purchasing fewer long-dated bonds, shrinking the natural buyer base at the long end, while heavy long-term borrowing tied to the AI build-out keeps crowding the market with issuance. Sehgal also flagged a self-reinforcing fear around US debt sustainability, which makes investors less willing to hold long maturities, though he dismissed the solvency worry itself as a “red herring.” Neither pressure fades quickly, which is why the selloff has persisted even without a fresh inflation shock. For crypto markets the yield spike is not background noise. Bitcoin (BTC) trades near $83,200 as of writing, and a 5.56% risk-free benchmark raises the opportunity cost of holding a non-yielding asset. Higher-for-longer rates also tighten credit conditions across lenders, including money-center banks like JPMorgan Chase, drying up the liquidity that risk assets depend on. Our desk reads the move as a duration repricing that hits leveraged positioning first, with spot crypto demand exposed only if the long end keeps climbing.
Long Compute, Not Long Bonds
Where does Goldman want the money instead? Sehgal’s answer is AI infrastructure: computing power for artificial intelligence, the data centers that house it, and the Neoclouds, a class of cloud providers built specifically to rent out that capacity. “I think the asymmetric expression is being long compute,” he said, describing a bet whose potential upside far exceeds its downside. The caveat he conceded is leverage. Savers collecting higher interest income have effectively financed the AI build-out, leaving the favored equities more indebted than they were a year ago. Sehgal still believes these positions can multiply in value while the broader equity market looks less certain, making the AI trade a levered bet on capital-intensive growth rather than a safe haven.
Policy context sharpens the picture. The Fed frames its September 16 hike as catch-up after five years of inflation running above target, and projections released alongside the meeting show 16 of 19 officials expecting another increase this year. Fed Chair Kevin Warsh, in Sehgal’s account, stressed three times that the central bank is trimming stimulus rather than turning restrictive. Sehgal’s transmission concern is that government interest payments flow to capital rather than workers, so higher rates squeeze household spending and weigh on equities overall. The divergence among asset managers is striking: BlackRock’s Rick Rieder is cutting equity exposure in favor of bonds paying 7% to 8%, though even his high-grade call cautions against rushing into the 10-year Treasury. Sehgal, for his part, names the Middle East conflict as the main driver of policy and markets in the weeks ahead — a geopolitical channel that typically moves energy prices, with Brent crude oil the benchmark to watch and hedging instruments like the UVXY ETF liable to see demand spike. For digital assets the relevance is indirect but real: the same rate path straining levered equities also governs crypto leverage, from perpetual funding costs to treasury strategies.
Duration Overhang for Bitcoin
COINOTAG’s read is that both developments trace one arc: a structurally higher long end, not a passing spike. With a 5.56% 30-year benchmark and another hike projected by most of the Fed’s own officials, zero-yield assets face rising competition for capital, and even yield-generating corners of crypto such as Bitcoin DeFi must clear a higher bar. Bitcoin holding near $83,200 suggests spot demand is still absorbing the macro pressure, but until long-end yields stabilize we treat crypto as a duration-sensitive allocation and will keep the 30-year print on our watchlist as the leading indicator.