What caught my attention with ETH is not the drop from $2788 to around $2635.
It is what happened underneath that move.
Ethereum saw more than $114M in total liquidations with over $96M coming from long positions. When leveraged longs get forced out this quickly the price can fall much faster than normal spot selling would suggest.
But then came the whale activity.
One OTC whale sold around 42005 ETH worth roughly $111.89M and reportedly still held about 9996 ETH.
That is a serious amount of supply hitting the market during weakness.
The bigger signal for me is that this whale was not completely alone.
The number of accumulating whales reportedly reached 211 this week while distributing whales increased to 219.
That is almost evenly split.
So the whale data is not showing a clear one way conviction right now.
Exchange flows are giving another warning.
Ethereum had recorded negative exchange netflow for five consecutive days before flipping positive. Netflow then reached around 10.6K ETH.
Positive exchange netflow does not guarantee that those coins will be sold. But it does mean more ETH is moving toward exchanges where it can become available for trading.
That makes the next price reaction more important.
ETH recovered toward $2692 after touching $2635.
For me the first level is $2700.
A clean daily close above $2700 would show that buyers managed to absorb some of the recent selling pressure.
If ETH cannot reclaim it then the market could remain trapped between the recent low and the $2700 resistance.
The bigger issue is not whether one whale sold.
Whales can sell for many reasons.
The important part is whether other large holders step in and absorb that supply.
If accumulating whales start clearly outnumbering distributors again then the structure would look healthier.
Until then I would treat $2700 as the confirmation level rather than assuming the recent weakness is already over.
ETH has buyers.
ETH also has sellers.
Right now the market needs to show which side has stronger conviction.