قاع بيتكوين البالغ 57 ألف دولار — هل سوق العملات المشفرة ينادي بذلك مبكرًا جدًا؟

ZeroBlock · 2026-09-24T09:11:44.000Z

ما لفت انتباهي بشأن بيتكوين هو الفجوة بين ما يُظهره الرسم البياني وما تقوله بيانات الدورة. تعافت عملة البيتكوين من نحو 57 ألف دولار في يوليو إلى ما يقرب من 87 ألف دولار في سبتمبر. وهذا يمثل أكثر من تحرك بنسبة 40%، ومن السهل النظر إلى هذا التعافي وافتراض أن الأسوأ قد وُضع بالفعل خلفنا. لكن بيانات الدورة الأعمق ليست بهذه البساطة. يُشير Glassnode إلى أن بيتكوين لا تزال أقل بنحو 30% فقط من ذروة دورتها. وقد حدثت قيعان دورات الهبوط الكبرى السابقة بعد تراجعات تجاوزت 80%. وهذا لا يعني أن بيتكوين يجب أن تكرر تلك الدورات.

What caught my attention with Bitcoin is the gap between what the chart is showing and what the cycle data is saying.
BTC recovered from around $57K in July to nearly $87K in September. That is more than a 40% move and it is easy to look at that recovery and assume the worst is already behind us.
But the deeper cycle data is not that simple.
Glassnode points out that Bitcoin is still only around 30% below its cycle high. Previous major bear cycle bottoms came after drawdowns above 80%.
That does not mean BTC must repeat those cycles.
It does mean the current drawdown is historically shallow compared with previous major bottoms.
There is another interesting signal on the other side.
Wallets holding between 100 and 1000 BTC have reportedly added around 113950 BTC since July 15. Their holdings increased roughly 2.22% to around 5.24M BTC.
That tells me larger holders are accumulating while the market is still debating whether the bottom is actually in.
This creates a strange setup.
The price structure has recovered strongly.
Large holders are adding exposure.
But historical cycle data still leaves room for another deeper phase before a final bottom.
The macro environment makes that uncertainty even more important. Higher Treasury yields and rising oil prices can quickly pressure risk assets if financial conditions tighten again.
For me the $87K area is now important on the upside because it represents the current recovery high.
On the downside I would keep the recent $57K low in focus as the major structural reference.
Between those levels Bitcoin can continue to build a new range without giving us a clear answer about the cycle bottom.
I would also be careful with the idea that accumulation automatically means a rally is coming.
Large holders can buy early and still experience significant volatility afterward.
So I am not calling $57K the final bottom.
I am also not assuming another crash is coming.
The more interesting question is whether Bitcoin can keep building higher lows while large holders continue accumulating.
That would give the recovery more evidence than simply reclaiming another round number.
Right now the market has a recovery.
What it does not have yet is complete proof of a final cycle bottom.