🚨 BITCOIN’S FOUR YEAR CYCLE IS LOOKING DIFFERENT THIS TIME
The classic Bitcoin bear market playbook isn’t lining up with what we’re seeing now.
Previous major bears were more than twice as deep and took significantly longer to reach their lows. This cycle, BTC’s drawdown has remained comparatively shallow, while price has already recovered strongly.
Glassnode’s latest data shows Bitcoin never closed below its Realized Price during this bear market, unlike the 2018–19 and 2022–23 cycles. If the current structure holds, the June low could become the shallowest bear market low since 2017.
That doesn’t mean the four year cycle is dead or that another decline is impossible. It simply means historical cycle depth and timing are becoming less useful as a direct roadmap.
Bitcoin may be breaking the playbook traders have relied on for years.
The classic Bitcoin bear market playbook isn’t lining up with what we’re seeing now.
Previous major bears were more than twice as deep and took significantly longer to reach their lows. This cycle, BTC’s drawdown has remained comparatively shallow, while price has already recovered strongly.
Glassnode’s latest data shows Bitcoin never closed below its Realized Price during this bear market, unlike the 2018–19 and 2022–23 cycles. If the current structure holds, the June low could become the shallowest bear market low since 2017.
That doesn’t mean the four year cycle is dead or that another decline is impossible. It simply means historical cycle depth and timing are becoming less useful as a direct roadmap.
Bitcoin may be breaking the playbook traders have relied on for years.
