#FedRateWatch
FOMC September: What's The Fed's Next Move? #FedRateWatch
August core CPI rose 0.3% MoM and now the odds of a 25bp hike this week are close to 90%. Market is nervous.
1. Do I anticipate a rate hike this week? One-off or start of a longer cycle?
I anticipate a hike this week - Fed can't ignore sticky CPI.
But I see it as a one-off final hike, not the start of a longer cycle. This looks like the last punch before pause/pivot.
2. If the hike lands, how does it play out?
- BTC: Short-term Bearish, Long-term Bullish. Initial sell-off as liquidity tightens, but dip will be bought if Fed sounds dovish after.
- Tech Stocks: Bearish short-term. Higher rates hurt growth valuation. NASDAQ likely to feel it more.
- Gold: Short-term bearish, then Bullish. Gold drops on strong dollar, but if this is the last hike, real yields peak and gold benefits.
3. How am I planning to trade next?
I'm not chasing FOMC volatility.
Strategy: Hold my spot BTC, avoid leverage this week. If BTC dips 3-5% after announcement, I'll DCA.
What about you - are you expecting Hike or Hold? And is this bullish or bearish for BTC?
#FedRateWatch #Bitcoin #fomc #Gold #TechStocks
FOMC September: What's The Fed's Next Move? #FedRateWatch
August core CPI rose 0.3% MoM and now the odds of a 25bp hike this week are close to 90%. Market is nervous.
1. Do I anticipate a rate hike this week? One-off or start of a longer cycle?
I anticipate a hike this week - Fed can't ignore sticky CPI.
But I see it as a one-off final hike, not the start of a longer cycle. This looks like the last punch before pause/pivot.
2. If the hike lands, how does it play out?
- BTC: Short-term Bearish, Long-term Bullish. Initial sell-off as liquidity tightens, but dip will be bought if Fed sounds dovish after.
- Tech Stocks: Bearish short-term. Higher rates hurt growth valuation. NASDAQ likely to feel it more.
- Gold: Short-term bearish, then Bullish. Gold drops on strong dollar, but if this is the last hike, real yields peak and gold benefits.
3. How am I planning to trade next?
I'm not chasing FOMC volatility.
Strategy: Hold my spot BTC, avoid leverage this week. If BTC dips 3-5% after announcement, I'll DCA.
What about you - are you expecting Hike or Hold? And is this bullish or bearish for BTC?
#FedRateWatch #Bitcoin #fomc #Gold #TechStocks
