Nobody was positioned for a Fed HIKE. Futures now put it at a coin flip.
At Jackson Hole, Fed Chair Kevin Warsh said the Fed "must be confident that underlying inflation is moving to our objective... otherwise, we have work to do." Fed funds futures repriced a September HIKE from 34% to 54% within hours (Bond Buyer/ING). Spot Bitcoin ETFs then snapped a 9-day inflow run with 202M of outflows (Cointelegraph).
The risk was never "higher for longer" — it's tighter. Crypto sits at the far end of the duration curve, so hike odds drain the liquidity bid there first.
$BTC is near 77.6K, -2.5% on the day after tapping 79.8K. The tell: ETH ETFs still pulled +102M as BTC funds bled — rotation, not flight. $ETH and $SOL move fastest if the hike gets priced back out.
Coin flip on September. Fading it or hedging it?
#Write2Earn #Fed #JacksonHole #CryptoNews #Bitcoin
Not financial advice. DYOR.
At Jackson Hole, Fed Chair Kevin Warsh said the Fed "must be confident that underlying inflation is moving to our objective... otherwise, we have work to do." Fed funds futures repriced a September HIKE from 34% to 54% within hours (Bond Buyer/ING). Spot Bitcoin ETFs then snapped a 9-day inflow run with 202M of outflows (Cointelegraph).
The risk was never "higher for longer" — it's tighter. Crypto sits at the far end of the duration curve, so hike odds drain the liquidity bid there first.
$BTC is near 77.6K, -2.5% on the day after tapping 79.8K. The tell: ETH ETFs still pulled +102M as BTC funds bled — rotation, not flight. $ETH and $SOL move fastest if the hike gets priced back out.
Coin flip on September. Fading it or hedging it?
#Write2Earn #Fed #JacksonHole #CryptoNews #Bitcoin
Not financial advice. DYOR.
