Warsh's speech just rewired the entire market overnight.
September rate hike odds spiked hard. The repricing rippled through rates, FX, and risk assets all at once.
Rates bear-flattened—2-year yields took the worst hit.
$USD rallied across the board.
Equities got hammered, especially tech and small caps. Higher rates crushing anything duration-sensitive.
Crude drifted lower. US-Iran noise stayed muted.
What matters now: September becomes a minefield. Inflation prints, NFP, ISM—every data point suddenly carries real weight. The market's trying to figure out if the Fed just holds tight or actually pulls the trigger again.
This isn't background noise anymore.
September rate hike odds spiked hard. The repricing rippled through rates, FX, and risk assets all at once.
Rates bear-flattened—2-year yields took the worst hit.
$USD rallied across the board.
Equities got hammered, especially tech and small caps. Higher rates crushing anything duration-sensitive.
Crude drifted lower. US-Iran noise stayed muted.
What matters now: September becomes a minefield. Inflation prints, NFP, ISM—every data point suddenly carries real weight. The market's trying to figure out if the Fed just holds tight or actually pulls the trigger again.
This isn't background noise anymore.