Bitcoin’s recovery looks promising — but confirmation still hinges on one key weekly close. A 24% surge in the past week sent Bitcoin’s price from below $64,000 to a peak above $80,000 and pushed CryptoQuant’s Bull Score from 30 to 80, its highest reading since October 2025. The analytics firm says eight of the model’s 10 indicators now signal bullish conditions, reflecting broad-based improvement across spot and futures demand, investor profitability, network activity and liquidity — not just a one-off price spike. Why this matters - A Bull Score of 80 places Bitcoin well inside CryptoQuant’s bullish zone and suggests the rally drew participation from both cash buyers and derivatives traders. For the first time since early October 2025, spot and futures demand moved higher together, strengthening the case that this advance has bona fide market support. - Price action: Bitcoin jumped more than 24% and briefly topped $80,000 before easing back; CoinGecko showed BTC trading near $79,000 at the time of reporting. The move also marked Bitcoin’s highest level in roughly three months. But the bull market isn’t confirmed — yet CryptoQuant’s model requires a weekly close above the 365-day moving average (around $83,000) to officially flip to a bull-market signal. The firm treats that longer-term moving average as the dividing line between improving and weakening market conditions; an intraday breach won’t do. Until Bitcoin closes a full week above roughly $83,000, CryptoQuant calls the current action an early-stage recovery that still needs price confirmation. Market strategists echo the same resistance level. LMAX Group strategist Joel Kruger pointed to Bitcoin’s May 2026 high of $82,820 as the next major barrier. “A clear break above that level would reinforce the view that a meaningful cycle low is now in place and shift attention towards the next major moves toward $100,000 and ultimately the 2025 record high,” he said. Near-term technicals and ranges Analysts have flagged $77,000–$80,000 as immediate holding ground after the strongest weekly advance since March 2023. Losing that band could put $70,000 back in focus; a sustained breakout, meanwhile, could open a path toward $80,000–$90,000. CryptoQuant emphasizes that a brief push through the $82,820–$83,000 zone won’t satisfy its bull-market condition unless BTC remains above the moving average through the weekly close. ETF flows and cash demand U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs were a clear source of cash-market demand during the rally: - Net inflows for the week ending Aug. 21 were about $1.9 billion — the strongest weekly intake since October 2025 and the fifth straight positive week. - Daily contributions included roughly $517 million on Aug. 19 and $606 million on Aug. 20. - SoSoValue data cited on Aug. 25 showed $337.56 million flowed into spot ETFs on Aug. 24, led by BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust ($208.9 million) and Fidelity’s Wise Origin Bitcoin Fund ($104.6 million). ETF flows let U.S. investors gain regulated, on-exchange exposure to Bitcoin without handling private keys, and the next daily readings will show whether this buying stayed consistent after BTC slipped back under $80,000. Short-term heat and profit-taking risks Despite improving long-term signals, CryptoQuant warns some short-term metrics look stretched: - Traders’ unrealized profit margin rose to 20.5%, the highest since June 2025. Rapid increases in paper gains can precede selling pressure; CryptoQuant compared it to early May, when a similar 19% reading preceded a roughly 30% drop (though past performance isn’t a guarantee). - Short-term holder “whales” realized about $1.2 billion in profits between Aug. 20 and 22, with peak selling of $614 million on Aug. 20 — the largest single-day realizations from that group. At the same time, exchange inflows rose: roughly 53,000 BTC moved onto trading platforms, the biggest deposit total since June. While coins moved to exchanges aren’t necessarily sold, greater exchange balance makes sell-side supply easier to execute. What to watch - Weekly close above the 365-day moving average (~$83,000) to validate CryptoQuant’s bull-market signal. - Whether BTC can hold $77,000–$80,000 as support. - Continued ETF inflows and daily fund flows data. - Short-term profit-taking and exchange deposits that could cap gains. Bottom line: The market has entered an early-stage recovery with broad participation and rising momentum, but a weekly close above roughly $83,000 is the key confirmation traders and analysts are waiting for before declaring a new bull cycle. Read more AI-generated news on: undefined/news