📊 On‑Chain & Futures Analysis
— Weekly Market Brief
Leverage came roaring back: funding went positive and pinned at the 0.01% cap by Friday, OI-weighted funding printed its highest readings since the July flush, and a $1.29B short squeeze ignited the move, yet OI rose only ~4% against a 10-11% price gain, marking this as a spot-driven rally with limited new leverage.
$BTC opened the week at $62,819 on Aug 17 and chopped between $62.7K and $65K through Tuesday as markets waited on the minutes.
Wednesday Aug 19 was the ignition: the Treasury buyback news sent BTC from ~$64.7K to a close of $69,266, a 7% single-day rip that liquidated $1.29B of shorts in about an hour. Thursday added +5.4% to $73,033 as ETF inflows peaked; Friday BTC broke $76K and closed at $78,335.
$ETH was the star: 1,874 → $2,482, its best week since May 2025, breaking the $1,980 resistance and printing a golden cross.
• Funding rates stayed positive all week, and got hot. Combined funding closed 0.0052% → 0.0016% → 0.0097% → 0.0050% → pinned at 0.01% Fri-Sun → 0.0059%.
OI-weighted funding spiked to 0.0114% on Aug 22, the highest since the July flush, and ETH OI-weighted hit 0.0174% intraday that day, showing leverage rebuilding into the second leg of the rally.
Bitfinex's read: OI +4% vs price +10-11% means the move is spot demand and short covering, not leveraged euphoria, giving it longer staying power than a typical short squeeze.
• Key levels: Bitfinex flags the $68-69K zone as the must-hold support, near the average cost basis of buyers over the past five months, with profit-taking flows into exchanges as the biggest risk to the rally.
The 365-day moving average near $83K is now the final boss technical test. Bitcoin dominance rose to a 15-week peak. Elsewhere: the Coldcard-hack tally was revised up to 1,789 BTC, with 87% still unmoved.
— Weekly Market Brief
Leverage came roaring back: funding went positive and pinned at the 0.01% cap by Friday, OI-weighted funding printed its highest readings since the July flush, and a $1.29B short squeeze ignited the move, yet OI rose only ~4% against a 10-11% price gain, marking this as a spot-driven rally with limited new leverage.
$BTC opened the week at $62,819 on Aug 17 and chopped between $62.7K and $65K through Tuesday as markets waited on the minutes.
Wednesday Aug 19 was the ignition: the Treasury buyback news sent BTC from ~$64.7K to a close of $69,266, a 7% single-day rip that liquidated $1.29B of shorts in about an hour. Thursday added +5.4% to $73,033 as ETF inflows peaked; Friday BTC broke $76K and closed at $78,335.
$ETH was the star: 1,874 → $2,482, its best week since May 2025, breaking the $1,980 resistance and printing a golden cross.
• Funding rates stayed positive all week, and got hot. Combined funding closed 0.0052% → 0.0016% → 0.0097% → 0.0050% → pinned at 0.01% Fri-Sun → 0.0059%.
OI-weighted funding spiked to 0.0114% on Aug 22, the highest since the July flush, and ETH OI-weighted hit 0.0174% intraday that day, showing leverage rebuilding into the second leg of the rally.
Bitfinex's read: OI +4% vs price +10-11% means the move is spot demand and short covering, not leveraged euphoria, giving it longer staying power than a typical short squeeze.
• Key levels: Bitfinex flags the $68-69K zone as the must-hold support, near the average cost basis of buyers over the past five months, with profit-taking flows into exchanges as the biggest risk to the rally.
The 365-day moving average near $83K is now the final boss technical test. Bitcoin dominance rose to a 15-week peak. Elsewhere: the Coldcard-hack tally was revised up to 1,789 BTC, with 87% still unmoved.
