Iran dropping conditions for any deal: wants full return to original MOU framework, including Strait of Hormuz provisions.
This matters because Hormuz = ~21% of global oil flows. Any disruption here sends crude spiking and rattles global supply chains.
If negotiations actually move forward, watch oil volatility compress. If talks stall or Iran gets more aggressive, energy names and defense contractors could see another leg up.
Not holding my breath on diplomacy working, but worth monitoring $XLE, $USO, and geopolitical risk premium in equity vol.
This matters because Hormuz = ~21% of global oil flows. Any disruption here sends crude spiking and rattles global supply chains.
If negotiations actually move forward, watch oil volatility compress. If talks stall or Iran gets more aggressive, energy names and defense contractors could see another leg up.
Not holding my breath on diplomacy working, but worth monitoring $XLE, $USO, and geopolitical risk premium in equity vol.