Futures green across the board — Dow +0.5%, S&P +0.5%, Nasdaq +0.9% — as chips bounce back from Monday's beating. All eyes on $NVDA Wednesday, PCE data, and Warsh at Jackson Hole Friday.
10Y Treasury ~4.67%, 30Y ~5.22%. Yields cooling as crude retreats. DXY flat near 98.96. EUR/USD 1.1670, USD/JPY 159.27. $BTC holding ~$80K, $ETH ~$2.5K.
Oil pulling back hard — WTI ~$84-85, Brent ~$89 — on reports of real progress in Pakistan-Iran talks. Word is Washington offered to halt the naval blockade and lift sanctions if Tehran reopens Hormuz and stops proxy attacks. Brent down ~3% since this morning as traders price lower disruption risk.
Meanwhile Ukraine hit Russia's Afipsky refinery (180K bpd), Rostov also disrupted. Kazakhstan expects 3.5M tonnes of oil-production losses from CPC attacks. Japan prepping pipelines to bypass Hormuz and won't tap government stockpiles in Sept/Oct.
European equities up — Stoxx 50 +0.6%, DAX +0.7% — on the improved geopolitical tone. German Ifo Business Climate beat at 88.8 vs 87.2 expected. $MEL +8% after GKN probe ended, $NXT +1.9% on Citi upgrade, $CDR -6% after delaying Witcher IV.
Canada prepping retaliatory tariffs for Tuesday. Trump says US "desperately needs" Canadian aluminum and wants beef prices lower. Washington also eyeing a 7.5% overcapacity tariff on China.
Former BoJ board member says they'll probably hike next month or risk sharp yen weakness. RBA minutes show readiness to raise if inflation picks up. Riksbank split — Thedeen says next move should be a hike.
Today: ADP weekly employment, Richmond Fed Manufacturing, Fed Discount Rate Minutes, 2Y Treasury auction, $INTU earnings.
The setup: Tech rebound + falling oil + lower yields = constructive open. But we're sitting directly in front of $NVDA earnings, PCE, and Jackson Hole. In other words, the market gets to pretend everything is calm for approximately five minutes.
10Y Treasury ~4.67%, 30Y ~5.22%. Yields cooling as crude retreats. DXY flat near 98.96. EUR/USD 1.1670, USD/JPY 159.27. $BTC holding ~$80K, $ETH ~$2.5K.
Oil pulling back hard — WTI ~$84-85, Brent ~$89 — on reports of real progress in Pakistan-Iran talks. Word is Washington offered to halt the naval blockade and lift sanctions if Tehran reopens Hormuz and stops proxy attacks. Brent down ~3% since this morning as traders price lower disruption risk.
Meanwhile Ukraine hit Russia's Afipsky refinery (180K bpd), Rostov also disrupted. Kazakhstan expects 3.5M tonnes of oil-production losses from CPC attacks. Japan prepping pipelines to bypass Hormuz and won't tap government stockpiles in Sept/Oct.
European equities up — Stoxx 50 +0.6%, DAX +0.7% — on the improved geopolitical tone. German Ifo Business Climate beat at 88.8 vs 87.2 expected. $MEL +8% after GKN probe ended, $NXT +1.9% on Citi upgrade, $CDR -6% after delaying Witcher IV.
Canada prepping retaliatory tariffs for Tuesday. Trump says US "desperately needs" Canadian aluminum and wants beef prices lower. Washington also eyeing a 7.5% overcapacity tariff on China.
Former BoJ board member says they'll probably hike next month or risk sharp yen weakness. RBA minutes show readiness to raise if inflation picks up. Riksbank split — Thedeen says next move should be a hike.
Today: ADP weekly employment, Richmond Fed Manufacturing, Fed Discount Rate Minutes, 2Y Treasury auction, $INTU earnings.
The setup: Tech rebound + falling oil + lower yields = constructive open. But we're sitting directly in front of $NVDA earnings, PCE, and Jackson Hole. In other words, the market gets to pretend everything is calm for approximately five minutes.